ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

I do agree fci but the Islands probably only have 4 days from a possible impact and PR could face the biggest hit possibly since Jeanne came in as a minimal hurricane, it deserves to be payed serious attention IMO, no panic just yet of course but a watchful eye yes.

Also yep convection is brusting but bursting to the NW of the estimated 'center'.

[Derek Ortt]

I just hope everyone takes a deep breath on 94L.

"Folks", "threat", "media" all way premature for a system thousands of miles from the CONUS......



Now, our friends in The Islands certainly have to be very watchful of 94L. No disagreement from me on that. But those in the CONUS should just relax for a while..

I agree it is at least 10+ days from any landfall in the United states. I would just relax in track the system.

Puerto Rico is in the USA. This is probably 5-6 days away from a POTENTIAL first US landfall

[cycloneye]

Also the U.S Virgin Islands.

[gatorcane]

getting better organized by the minute:

[KWT]

Exactly Derek the thing is we really aren't all that far away from the windward islands possibly feeling effects from any developing system and then we have a possible hispaniola hit which can lead to huge deaths, this is a real threat IMO to the Caribbean then maybe the USA afterwards.

By the way if any center does form under that deep convection then its a good deal to the north of the estimates are right now.

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

Well thjere we go cycloneye just further confirmation of what appears to be a developing tropical cyclone. The season is ramping up early this year.

[RL3AO]

A hurricane near the islands impacts every American. Its called oil prices.

[jinftl]

Gotta love the two words that get everyone riled up on here..."south florida". If the post had said "New Orleans media" or "San Juan media" it would have not taken on the tabloidish, alarmist innuendo that happens whenever the Storm2k addition to George Carlin's list of dirty words is mentioned...South Florida.

I can almost guarantee you that as soon as this thing is named a depression and the cone is pointing WNW towards the SE Bahamas that the South Florida media outlets will be all over this.

I expect anytime a storm forms just about anywhere Florida outlets are all over it.

[weatherguru18]

Boy, whoever made the comment about it going to be a busy year this year sure said a mouth full. To whoever critized him, I wouldn't be so quick next time. lol...

It's sad, but I'm just as concerned about the price of gas as I am the deaths and destruction this year. One hurricane in the gulf, and the commodity speculaters as somebody put it will pump the price of gas through the roof and we'll be living on fumes.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A hurricane near the islands impacts every American. Its called oil prices.

I agree gas prices have been 4.20 for over a month now. It hurts. Food prices have nearly doubled to, I'm not rich!

[weatherguru18]

Anybody want to make a bet here? Maybe we should start a new topic, BUT, I say $5.50 a gallon by October. I'm calling for three hurricanes in the gulf...one being major. If that major hits a city (Houston where a quarter of the nations refining capacity is, change the first five to a 7)

[jinftl]

Get a cone anywhere in the Gulf...$5 in a hurry....get a hurricane landfall in Texas or Lousiana...$6

Anybody want to make a bet here? Maybe we should start a new topic, BUT, I say $5.50 a gallon by October. I'm calling for three hurricanes in the gulf...one being major. If that major hits a city (Houston where a quarter of the nations refining capacity is, change the first five to a 7)

[cycloneye]

Anybody want to make a bet here? Maybe we should start a new topic, BUT, I say $5.50 a gallon by October. I'm calling for three hurricanes in the gulf...one being major. If that major hits a city (Houston where a quarter of the nations refining capacity is, change the first five to a 7)

Lets keep the topic on 94L and not on other matters.

[wx247]

Evening everyone. I am following along and reading... not really posting too much. Thanks to everyone who is taking time to make substantive posts.

Quick thought/question... looks like the system may set up a little further north than the models are initializing it. Doesn't that kind of throw the model tracks we are seeing off in relation to impacts on the islands?

[MGC]

Excellent chance for 94L to become a TC. From the looks of things the deep tropics are going to be very active the next several months. Hold on to your hats.....MGC

[weatherguru18]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

GFDL 12Z looks to take it toward Florida. Does it appear that the ridge builds back in?

[KBBOCA]

Gotta love the two words that get everyone riled up on here..."south florida". If the post had said "New Orleans media" or "San Juan media" it would have not taken on the tabloidish, alarmist innuendo that happens whenever the Storm2k addition to George Carlin's list of dirty words is mentioned...South Florida.

LOL. too true! My home is in Boca, though I live and work much of the year in W. Africa, so I know the S. FL media hype all too well. I think it has something to do with all the transplanted NY-NJ folks (my family being among them, I grew up in NJ).

Anyway, back on topic, this certainly appears to be a system that's getting its act together in a hurry, and bears watching. As fun as it is to track storms (Bertha has been very interesting!), I'd hate to see this become a landfall threat in the islands or anywhere, so would just as soon see this fizzle quickly, and all our fear of hype turn out to be just hype itself!

[deltadog03]

12z GFDL and 18zGFDL very ominous looking path for a """potential""" US threat. I say that because you can see the weakness from bertha..(could go up and out from that) or you can see the ridge starting to build back east to close that gap..and well.....u know the rest.

[curtadams]

Quick thought/question... looks like the system may set up a little further north than the models are initializing it. Doesn't that kind of throw the model tracks we are seeing off in relation to impacts on the islands?

It would, but the low cloud center is south of the current convection burst, around 10N (very hard to make out at night). So the models aren't yet far off.