It Just Goes to Show ...

[Steve Cosby]

Claudette just goes to show that it's just not possible to really predict what these things will do. All those people on the "She's Dead!" bandwagon are eating crow right now. Then there's people that said, "No, she won't go but she will only be a TS". Bastardi hisself blew it this week and admits it. For that matter, NHC blew things too.

Me, I just worried. I have friends at the Caymans right now and some other friends that were headed to Cozumel this week (not going now obviously).

Honestly, I think the best anybody can do on a consistent basis is to watch and marvel at the power and intensity of God's creations (sorry, I'm Southern Baptist).

Sometimes, the forecasters nail it. Other times, they really-really blow it. Why? Because these things are too strong and unpredictible. I kinda like just seeing what changes occur on each Sat pass and what recon finds as it flies through.

Anyway, those of you in the path: we're all praying for you. This thing is just getting stronger.

[Steve]

Fortunately my original thoughts are still alive. I got hammered by someone on another board (not S2K or CFHC) about my call that Claudette had the potential (if things came together) to be a Cat 2 or Cat 3 in the Gulf. I don't often throw intensity stuff out there, but that's what I was seeing. So I haven't blown it yet, and I'm a Catholic .

Anyway, I'm still going with the 3 scenarios as posted at CFHC this morning.

I'm not going to cut and paste them, but I gave a 25% chance to the strengthening/poleward solution; 25% chance to the ECMWF's insistance (haven't seen its 12z runs yet) that she barrels on out into the EPAC and a 50% chance of a heading toward the upper Mexico/lower Texas coasts with the potential for a stall and 'to be continued' label on Claudette.

I just don't think it's possible to know which way this plays out until later tonight or tomorrow morning. And oh btw, for anyone who said I stole that from Bastardi, I've been maintaining that I wouldn't make a landfall call until Thursday PM or Friday Am since Tuesday before he put out his column.

Steve

[vbhoutex]

In other words-DON'T MESS WITH MOTHER NATURE!! SHE IS ALWAYS IN CONTROL!! It is indeed awesome to sit back and watch it all unfold. Many of us have fun trying to "outguess" mother nature and/or the experts. And sometimes we "nail it" and sometimes we don't. What is important is that everyone learns from what we see and do here and from even the experts mistakes,

No apologies needed for your Christianity. Many here are openly Christian. We just don't try to make others believe as we do as that is not what this site is about.

[JetMaxx]

Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz said it in 1983 when an OCM at The Weather Channel, and it still rings true today...

"The only thing predictable about a hurricane is it's unpredictability"

[ColdFront77]

Why would pinpointing a time such as tomorrow night or Saturday morning on making a landfall prediction with a tropical cyclone, such as Claudette. There are many things that are apparently going to occur; including the most important aspect... the decrease in forward speed and the expectations of a turn from the WNW to the NW.

[Steve]

>>Why would pinpointing a time such as tomorrow night or Saturday morning on making a landfall prediction with a tropical cyclone, such as Claudette. There are many things that are apparently going to occur; including the most important aspect... the decrease in forward speed and the expectations of a turn from the WNW to the NW.

Hey Coldfront,

I'll try to explain it the way I incorporate 'crunch time' in my predictions. I look for a crucial day that's still 2, 3 or 4 days or so out from landfall and factor in the possible scenarios and what ifs. There's a major challenge in that as we all know the NHC's official tracks are often way off in 72 hours and can change a lot within that time frame. (Obviously if someone predicts landfall from 12 hours out, that doesn't usually take much skill or guesswork. I'm sure you agree.) There's no lock that any of my calls are going to be right or even close. But if you ask a few people around the web who know me, they'll tell you I do fairly well for an amateur .

In Claudette's case, I have it narrowed down to 3 major scenarios (and a bunch of sub-scenarios) which I noted above. If the storm is truly going to deepen and move NW toward the descending upper trof, we should be able to note that trend by tomorrow morning. Then I can hone in on where I think the target area may be. If the storm is going to follow the ECMWF's scenario and just blast across the Yucatan, BoC and Mexico, it's going to keep on heading more west than anything else. That doesn't seem to be the case anymore, but we need some time to make sure that scenario can be crossed out. Finally, there's my other (and more likely it seems) scenario where Claudette crosses on or near the Yucatan and heads slowly toward an apparent landfall in TX or Mexico only to slow down a bit and wait for steering currents to determine its ultimate fate.

So I guess what it is, is I try to challenge myself to look at what's going on, what might happen, and when the crucial time period where the proverbial "call" is made on the poker hand where the cards are laid out on the table. In the case of tropical systems, the cards are the factors with the storm and on the surface and upper level maps - trofs, ridges, steering currents, impulses, forward speed and direction, climatology, etc.

Hey, you asked .

Steve

[Steve Cosby]

Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz said it in 1983 when an OCM at The Weather Channel, and it still rings true today...

"The only thing predictable about a hurricane is it's unpredictability"

That's a great quote.

[Steve]

Uh Tom? Were you satisfied with the reply? You called me on it afterall.

Steve

[ColdFront77]

Hi Steve. Sure I'm satisfied with your reply. A lot of people give landfall predictions days in advance, which I think are and I would hope you would understand may easily be too premature.

Your confidence level will be higher after tomorrow night and/or Saturday morning.

[Lindaloo]

Ya know Tom and Steve when Claudette kept trying to fizzle out? Well... that was me praying. Still am actually!!

[Steve]

Hi Steve. Sure I'm satisfied with your reply. A lot of people give landfall predictions days in advance, which I think are and I would hope you would understand may easily be too premature.

Your confidence level will be higher after tomorrow night and/or Saturday morning.

You said it better than I could. And of course we have to remember that opinions are like a - oh wait, it's a family board. But you know what I'm saying . Everyone's opinions count to me, though I'd have to say I throw out the wishcasts that I can identify and the words from those who think they know it all (especially fun to watch them botch a call).

Steve

[Rainband]

I just go by what I hear and see. I am glad we have alot of people on here to give perspectives and opinions. It will be interesting to see future models and recon. Steve you may get a couple more hurricane days soon!!

[ColdFront77]

All well and good. We want weather to affect our area, but don't want to be -removed- either. Part of following the weather is experiencing it.

I know full well why a storm is predicted to do something at a certain time, then other things come into play that weren't necessarily in play before which can change the entire situation.