TC Bertha

[HURAKAN]

Talk about having half of an eyewall!!!

[Ad Novoxium]

Talk about having half of an eyewall!!!

[Chacor]

Still 55kt.

A bit more north and west now.

AL, 02, 2008071400, , BEST, 0, 303N, 631W, 55, 990, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 100, 120, 1015, 225, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERTHA, D,
AL, 02, 2008071400, , BEST, 0, 303N, 631W, 55, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 60, 60, 60, 1015, 225, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERTHA, D,

[brunota2003]

Question is, is that the old inner eyewall, or are the two still fighting it out?

[ekal]

Looks like that would have to be the remains of the very wide outer eyewall. The inner eyewall appears to have dissipated.

SSTs just to the southeast of the circulation center have dropped as low as 22C. Amazing how much energy a tropical cyclone can extract from the ocean!

[cpdaman]

convection dying but getting very very close to bermuda

http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp some squalls to the south as well

anyone have a better bermuda radar?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Convection is really on the weak side. Is this because of shear or cool ssts?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Convection is really on the weak side. Is this because of shear or cool ssts?

It is because of the cool sst's. 22.5-24c is enough to kill a cyclone.

[cpdaman]

me thinks mid level shear as well

[cpdaman]

bertha is moving! looks about 30.7 63.3 now and moving NW bit more steadily and squalls are moving in

i think there is a chance should she move another 50 miles or so nw that the water temps may be 26-27 C.

[Chacor]

Latest Conditions
At The L.F.Wade International Airport
Recorded at 11:55 pm
Showers
Temp.:
27°C/80°F
Humidity:
79%
Wind:
ENE 18kt

[Chacor]

[JonathanBelles]

forecast winds via BoatUS.com . Yellow=34-50kts, blue=50-64kts.

[cpdaman]

http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp squalls moving in as bertha is moving NW

bertha's center appears to be moving up to 10 mph now or maybe i'm just delusional

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

i am concerned she may intensify because waters above 32N are less upwelled

[cpdaman]

in two hours and 15 minutes bertha has moved .6N and .3W

assuming she can maintain 80 % of this pace, then when i check on her in the morning she should be at

32.6 64.3 by 8:45 a.m or about 40 miles east of bermuda

we gotta watch for a hurricane tomorrow as she moves into warmer waters.

[JonathanBelles]

TS force winds now engulf Bermuda

[Chacor]

Latest Conditions
At The L.F.Wade International Airport
Recorded at 2:55 am
Showers
Temp.:
25°C/77°F
Humidity:
87%
Wind:
ENE 19kt

[hiflyer]

looks like BWS took the guest password out from the expanded radar while the storm approaches....understandable.

the St George webcam is still avail....could be some good shots later in the day if does not get overloaded
http://209.240.42.187:1024/home/homeJ.html

just fyi...air service to the island will probably go bye bye if the winds get above 30-40 kts due to only one runway and crosswind limits....that is a normal thing being basically the only runway for 700 miles around. Normally there are a couple AA birds there overnight...night shot on the webcam tough to tell if they came in.
http://www.bermudaairport.com/site/312/default.aspx

[Chacor]

SABE31 TXKF 140755
METAR TXKF 140755Z 04021KT 9999 VCSH SCT017 BKN030 BKN130
BKN170 26/23 Q1010 RMK A2983 VIS 7SM ALQDS

[Chacor]

WTNT42 KNHC 140900
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

BERTHA IS FINALLY...TRULY ON THE MOVE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 335/7. THE CONVECTION HAS ALSO PERKED UP A BIT
WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS...EVEN IN THE SHORT TIME SINCE THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE MADE AT 06Z...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
REMAINS ON THE HIGH END OF THOSE ESTIMATES AT 55 KT. RADAR IMAGERY
FROM BERMUDA SHOWS THAT OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA HAVE BEGUN PASSING
OVER THAT ISLAND...AND THE PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION THAT WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER IS NOT FAR
OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL PASS VERY
CLOSE TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THAT ISLAND. GIVEN THE SPRAWLING
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN STRENGTH DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TODAY. THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO SUGGESTS
LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND
HWRF STILL FORECAST BERTHA TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS.

BERTHA HAS MADE NORTHWARD PROGRESS FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AND THE TRACK HAS BEEN SPED UP A LITTLE THROUGH 48
HOURS. ONCE BERTHA ROUNDS THE RIDGE CURRENTLY TO ITS EAST AND
STARTS HEADING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...THE
STEERING MECHANISMS BECOME COMPLICATED DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW FORECAST
TO APPROACH BERTHA FROM THE EAST. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS COULD RESULT IN AN UNDULATING BUT GENERALLY
EASTWARD TRACK OF BERTHA AS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS. AS IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE NEW TRACK
INCLUDES THESE UNDULATIONS...BUT SMOOTHS THROUGH THEM JUST A
LITTLE. THE NEW FIVE-DAY POINT HAS ALSO BEEN SPED UP TOWARD THE
MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS BERTHA WILL ACCELERATE OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC A LITTLE MORE THAN FORECAST IN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 31.5N 63.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 32.6N 63.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 34.2N 63.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 35.8N 62.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 36.4N 61.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 35.0N 59.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 34.5N 55.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 37.5N 51.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB