ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[brunota2003]

You guys are arguing if it hits S. Florida, and it hasnt even passed Puerto Rico yet at the end of the run? Wow

[Blown Away]

Speculation is driving me nuts...
It's far too early to prognosticate beyond the islands, in my view.

Seems very likely 94L will become a TD, it looks very healthy rate now and once we get tomorrow's visible, I bet we find a LLC and a TD. No matter how much reason you provide models tracking a system near the SE Bahamas is going to get people excited. Seems likely we will have Cristobal moving through the Hebert box into the NE Caribbean and generally towards SFL. Don't get to frustrated.

[MiamiensisWx]

The word/phrases: "Florida", "East Coast" and "Gulf of Mexico" have absolutely no need to be mentioned. Right now it is a tropical wave well to the east of the Windward Islands.

Exactly!!!

...and a TC like Andrew or 1926 is extremely rare. Do your research on south FL climo.

I WILL stop posting if the unabated speculation continues.

[RL3AO]

Speculation is driving me nuts...
It's far too early to prognosticate beyond the islands, in my view.

Seems very likely 94L will become a TD, it looks very healthy rate now and once we get tomorrow's visible, I bet we find a LLC and a TD. No matter how much reason you provide models tracking a system near the SE Bahamas is going to get people excited. Seems likely we will have Cristobal moving through the Hebert box into the NE Caribbean and generally towards SFL. Don't get to frustrated.

Unless the Bahamas have moved 800 miles east, its not near the SE Bahamas. Its north of Anguilla when the run ends.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The word/phrases: "Florida", "East Coast" and "Gulf of Mexico" have absolutely no need to be mentioned. Right now it is a tropical wave well to the east of the Windward Islands.

Exactly!!!

...and a TC like Andrew or 1926 is extremely rare. Do your research on south FL climo.

I WILL stop posting if the unabated speculation continues.

Man i love your info but you have about as much patience as my 3.5 year old trying to tie his shoes..

[Blown Away]

GFDL is bringing into South Florida as a CAT 3?

NO

YES
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Technically ESE of FL, but still more than a 1000 miles ESE. The end run is still ENE of PR. I wouldn't call that run a Cat 3 into SFL, more like a Cat 3 1000 miles away that needs to be watched.

[gatorcane]

Thanks for the clarification, the immediate concern is the islands (Leewards and Puerto Rico)

94L seems to be wasting no time. I am shocked it is mid July and I am seeing such rapid organization in that area of the Atlantic.

[HURAKAN]

I see here a discussion that for now it doesn't makes sense. Because a system forms near where Andrew or the 1926 Hurricane formed doens't mean that it will have the same track. It's just illogical to talk about something that far out. There is no computer in this planet or person on Earth that can precisely predict that far out. Therefore, we must concentrate on what is happening now.

[MiamiensisWx]

I see here a discussion that for now it doesn't makes sense. Because a system forms near where Andrew or the 1926 Hurricane formed doens't mean that it will have the same track. It's just illogical to talk about something that far out. There is no computer in this planet or person on Earth that can precisely predict that far out. Therefore, we must concentrate on what is happening now.

Thank you!!!

Thank you!!!

Thank you!!!

[GeneratorPower]

Whoa! That puppy really got it's act together while I was gone. That's got a shot of upgrade at 11pm given the way the NHC has been pulling the trigger this year.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Mecklenburg]

is GFDL that reliable?

[CourierPR]

Unabated speculation on this forum is like sex and violence on TV. If I don't like it, I can choose to "change the channel" but this forum is too valuable to let anything drive me away.

[Mecklenburg]

what's the wind shear status in the area?

[MiamiensisWx]

Unabated speculation on this forum is like sex and violence on TV. If I don't like it, I can choose to "change the channel" but this forum is too valuable to let anything drive me away.

Most of the coversation during an impending landfall isn't "valuable."

The majority of the posts during the landfall of Katrina were nonsense.

[RL3AO]

94L 14-day track








Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[brunota2003]

is GFDL that reliable?

Yes and no. Right now, none of the models are really all that "reliable" because there is no defined LLC to pick up. All the models are doing is picking up on a point and going from there, whereas the true LLC could be (in some extreme cases) a hundred miles or more away.

[Aric Dunn]

94L 14-day track








Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thats AWESOME>>>>>

[weatherguru18]

94L 14-day track








Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

LMAO...are you telling me the folks in Panama are safe?

[HURAKAN]

is GFDL that reliable?

No computer models is 100% reliable. Too many factors to consider and as you go into the future, a minor error at the beginning could mean a big error 5 days out. Now, it makes sense based on the current wind pattern.

[Vortex]

00:45 UTC imagery indicates a developing 94l that is or is just about to become a depression. Large envelope with this system with deeper convection spreading and developing closer to the LLC. Upgrade likely at 5am as organization continues overnight. I expect Cristobal by 11pm Monday night.