ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[cycloneye]

[weatherguru18]

Seems to be a lot of squabling over the landfall location of a low on a tropical wave that is still East of 40 degrees longitude. Board seems fisty this year. I guess it is just all the bottled up energy to have something to watch.

Lets spend our energy on anaylizing the storms and trying to get our opinions (and that is all they are) out there and not squabling about the 10 day tracks of tropical waves.....

...and all of the FL speculation could be frivolous if it impacts Hispaniola.

Keep in mind that Hurricane David (1979) hit Hispanola head on and then still managed to impact Florida a few days later as a Category 2 Hurricane...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:David_1979_track.png

The idea that Hispanola instantly kills all storms is not always true.

No, but if the Euro loses it, which it did earlier this afternoon, that would indicate a weaker system. IMO, this system has the possibility to be a hurricane before the islands.

[MiamiensisWx]

Smaller TCs in terms of wind radii and circulation are more susceptible to "death by Hispaniola".

[MGC]

All of ya'll ready to upgrade this system had better step away from the display for a while. While 94L does look impressive this evening, I'll remind you that it is nearly impossible to know what is going on at the surface by looking at the cloud tops thousands of feet removed. I can not recall the number of times systems with excellent IR presentations don't develope. So, until there is some method of identifying a surface circulation, I'm not going to get excited and speculate on possible track or intensity issues. Sit back and relax, this is days out. 94L might or might not develope. The best is just to wait and see......MGC

[RL3AO]

If I remember correctly, recon can get out to 50W if they take off from Barbados?

[weatherguru18]

If I remember correctly, recon can get out to 50W if they take off from Barbados?

Yup. That's the way I've understood it. Didn't they use to fly out of Antigua? Why the change...if what I said is true.

[HURAKAN]

If I remember correctly, recon can get out to 50W if they take off from Barbados?

Yes. An the unmanned flying vehicles can go even farther.

[Aric Dunn]

you all are forgetting a very important problem right now... 94l is still attached to the itcz so it cannot have good inflow in those area.. i.e the SW and NE side of the developing circulation.. it must break free before they will upgrade... unless maybe there is sufficient evidence that it will be free from the itcz sometime soon i dont see upgrading till at least tomorrow morning at that depends on the morning visible images.

[Blown Away]

94L looks so good rate now, I think the NHC could upgrade this to a TD tonight. I know they won't since it is in the central Atlantic and they have time, but it looks real good. Better than half of those sheared TD/TS's we watched last season.

[HURAKAN]

Tomorrow's DMAX should be interesting. Even if it looks good tonight, the NHC won't upgrade until visible images are available. Especially this far out.

[RL3AO]

If I remember correctly, recon can get out to 50W if they take off from Barbados?

Yes. An the unmanned flying vehicles can go even farther.

I wish they made that data public. I don't even know if they are using them yet.

[RL3AO]

94L looks so good rate now, I think the NHC could upgrade this to a TD tonight. I know they won't since it is in the central Atlantic and they have time, but it looks real good. Better than half of those sheared TD/TS's we watched last season.

Do you have proof that there is a closed low level circualation? If you (and the NHC) don't, then no upgrade.

[wxman57]

Hi all,

I live in Trinidad - the most southerly isle of the Caribbean. Can I ask someone a question please? What is the chance of invest 94 hitting Trinidad? Thanks

Regards
jusjas

Welcome to the board, jusjas. 94L is already at or north of your latitude. There's nothing to push it due west to Trinidad. It should track WNW toward the NE Caribbean, well to your north. You won't likely feel any effects as it passes, even if it's a hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

LL Convergence:


UL Divergence:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

94L looks so good rate now, I think the NHC could upgrade this to a TD tonight. I know they won't since it is in the central Atlantic and they have time, but it looks real good. Better than half of those sheared TD/TS's we watched last season.

Do you have proof that there is a closed low level circualation? If you (and the NHC) don't, then no upgrade.

I would say there is a developing LLC near 10/38. For one we have two buoys within the area, that shown a west and east and southeast wind. So it is pretty close. Once it develops a LLC, I would say its a depression.

I would not put much trust in the quickscat, remember bertha early in its life. I would wait intil microwave 85h data came in, with the quickscat data.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***NOT OFFICIAL***
Looks like it could be a tropical depression late tonight
or tomorrow. And likely TS Cristobal tomorrow night into
Tuesday. It has very good inflow, a lot of convection,
warm SSTs...there's only a 10 mph difference between a depression
and a storm...so I am betting on TS Cristobal.
It appears to be intensifying too, and should continue to do
so as it moves over warm waters, possibly reaching category
1-2 hurricane strength near the islands of the Caribbean,
so folks there need to watch carefully. After 5 days,
it is difficult to tell where it may go.

[GeneratorPower]

GeneratorPower's forecast graphic...






The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

Yeah, very evident that there is still very little or no low level convergence, if there is convergence it is in the mid levels, convection is mainly surviving from UL Divergence.

[Blown Away]

94L looks so good rate now, I think the NHC could upgrade this to a TD tonight. I know they won't since it is in the central Atlantic and they have time, but it looks real good. Better than half of those sheared TD/TS's we watched last season.

Do you have proof that there is a closed low level circualation? If you (and the NHC) don't, then no upgrade.

I know we have to wait for the visible to confirm the LLC and we are in no hurry being at 40W. If 94L were 100 miles E of the Islands at this time I bet the NHC would upgrade to TD based on satellite.

[RL3AO]

I would say there is a developing LLC near 10/38. For one we have two buoys within the area, that shown a west and east and southeast wind. So it is pretty close. Once it develops a LLC, I would say its a depression.

Yep. Heres the 4 reports from the last three hours (2 ships, 2 buoys)