ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[NDG]

94L looks so good rate now, I think the NHC could upgrade this to a TD tonight. I know they won't since it is in the central Atlantic and they have time, but it looks real good. Better than half of those sheared TD/TS's we watched last season.

Do you have proof that there is a closed low level circualation? If you (and the NHC) don't, then no upgrade.

I know we have to wait for the visible to confirm the LLC and we are in no hurry being at 40W. If 94L were 100 miles E of the Islands at this time I bet the NHC would upgrade to TD based on satellite.

I really doubt it, becaue there was no evident LLC from the last vis Sat pics, it was still broad and attached or very close to the ITCZ.

[HurricaneHunter914]

At that longitude, when does the first visible image usually show up?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

At that longitude, when does the first visible image usually show up?

2:30-3:00am pst/5:30-6am est.

Also the ship and surface obs shows that there is a broad and elongated LLC. Case closed! Now it will need to become better defined and that will happen as the system becomes better organized. Is it a depression, not yet. But give it another 12 hours.

[cycloneye]

[TheRingo]

Sure does look like it's trying to separate form the ITCZ. Looks like some convection got left below.

[Blown Away]

Prediction, this system will break the record for total pages posted.

[HurricaneHunter914]

We should keep a record book for the most pgs for an invest.

[RL3AO]

Prediction, this system will break the record for total pages posted.

Very possible. Especially considering how quick Dean moved. It didn't last long.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Prediction, this system will break the record for total pages posted.

I doubt we will break 500 pages. That was not of this world.

[Brent]

Prediction, this system will break the record for total pages posted.

I doubt we will break 500 pages. That was not of this world.

Oh I bet we could easily if this system lives up to it's full potential. 21 pages already!

[Jason_B]

Is it just me or does it have a little spin to it? Especially in the last few frames.

[cycloneye]

Will this thread make it to this list of most pages? It has 21 already.

1-Dean=583
2-Ivan=352
3-Wilma=282
4-Chris=265
5-Bertha=?????
6-Noel=196
7-Frances=187
8-Ernesto=177
9-Ingrid=132
10-Charley=124

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Is it just me or does it have a little spin to it? Especially in the last few frames.

Yeah, but that is the MLC or the midlevels. But the "LLC" is starting to become less broad to.

[RL3AO]

If you take a CV major cane moving at an average speed (15 mph or so) that becomes a GOM/FL/East Coast threat...1000 pages easily.

[windycity]

OMG, the sat pics look mighty impressive. Which means some of you will be pulling a all-nighter . I gotta get my sleep for the coming days!

[Sanibel]

Going quickly to formation with good curvature. Visible should say a lot tomorrow. Looks like a go.

[gatorcane]

I agree,

If 94L can make it to Cristobal as a major hurricane and if the cone is pointing towards the islands and CONUS somewhere GOM or Florida in particular this thread will break the record.

Lot of IFs there to say the least

[Chacor]

All of these inane posts talking about the number of pages this could reach is only contributing [falsely?] to the number of pages and could skew it...

[wxman57]

Keep an eye on the convective burst around 11-12N. The convection will generate inflow if it persists tonight. That is where the LLC will either form under or move to. NE Caribbean is at risk of a hurricane by Friday, though it could pass just north of the Caribbean. I still don't see anything to carry it as far west as the East U.S. Coast, but I'm not ready to declare that there's no risk to the U.S. Let's see how it develops first.

[ROCK]

Matt, nice research on those surface obs....I like to use this site to look at surface waves as well as the SCAT ( which comes out later).....Surface waves at about 10N-12N at around 40W have started to take on that classic look...


http://www.oceanweather.com/data/