ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[TheRingo]

Look at the xtrp. It's developing quickly and maybe finding the weakness towards Bertha.

That is the direction it is currently going. Not a model!

yes.

[gatorcane]

The XTRP means nothing, don't look at it.

[ROCK]

Look at the xtrp. It's developing quickly and maybe finding the weakness towards Bertha.

That is the direction it is currently going. Not a model!

Matt cut him some slack though.....I remember in my early days I thought the LBAR was the model of choice....

[boca]

The question I have is will their be a trough along the east coast in 7 to 10 days for this potential system to pull a Bertha?

[TheRingo]

wow you guys are quick to attack...
just pointing out that it's traveling well above the models.

[boca]

Does anyone know where wxman57 gets that model he uses which show the synoptics a week from now?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking at the IR loop, the XTRP looks wrong to me right now. The system clearly has more of a W or WNW motion to it, not NW as shown by the XTRP...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[boca]

Looking at the IR loop, the XTRP looks wrong to me right now. The system clearly has more of a W or WNW motion to it, not NW as shown by the XTRP...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Yeah the xtrp has a 315 heading this looks more like 280.

[TheRingo]

Looking at the IR loop, the XTRP looks wrong to me right now. The system clearly has more of a W or WNW motion to it, not NW as shown by the XTRP...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Yeah the xtrp has a 315 heading this looks more like 280.

right it's moving more west for sure. probably the next run will show that. I should of looked at the loop before commenting on the xtrp because it's probably too skewed this early on.

[Ivanhater]

Does anyone know where wxman57 gets that model he uses which show the synoptics a week from now?

Im pretty sure he makes those maps based off the GFS forecast...

[Blown Away]

What does the long range GFS do w/ 94L?

[boca]

Does anyone know where wxman57 gets that model he uses which show the synoptics a week from now?

Im pretty sure he makes those maps based off the GFS forecast...

I had a feeling it was the GFS and that program he uses is great.

[ROCK]

Does anyone know where wxman57 gets that model he uses which show the synoptics a week from now?

Im pretty sure he makes those maps based off the GFS forecast...

I think he uses the EURO that goes out further than what we can see. I know he hugged the EUOR with Dean and felix last year and was right on.....


No offense WX57......I hug all of the models....

[boca]

What does the long range GFS do w/ 94L?

The 18z GFS has it crossing Hispanola and curving northward as it enters the SE Bahamas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

What does the long range GFS do w/ 94L?

It is WAY too early to rely on this as an accurate forecast, but for now the 18z run shows the system impacting the northern islands and then entering the bahamas in 180 hours: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif .

Beyond 180 hours, the run goes on to bring the storm northward just off the FL coast...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif

and eventually it gets very close to NC...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_276l.gif

[Sanibel]

I agree the EXTRAP is clearly west on Shortwave IR. Maybe the model counted the convection jump towards the center?

[TheRingo]

I agree the EXTRAP is clearly west on Shortwave IR. Maybe the model counted the convection jump towards the center?

could be the separation jump from the ITCZ.

[Blown Away]

What does the long range GFS do w/ 94L?

It is WAY too early to rely on this as an accurate forecast, but for now the 18z run shows the system impacting the northern islands and then entering the bahamas in 180 hours: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif .
Beyond 180 hours, the run goes on to bring the storm northward just off the FL coast...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif
and eventually it gets very close to NC...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_276l.gif

Wow, the 216l is only 150 miles E of SFL.

[ROCK]

What does the long range GFS do w/ 94L?

It is WAY too early to rely on this as an accurate forecast, but for now the 18z run shows the system impacting the northern islands and then entering the bahamas in 180 hours: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif .

Beyond 180 hours, the run goes on to bring the storm northward just off the FL coast...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif

and eventually it gets very close to NC...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_276l.gif

EWG- 0z GFS will be out shortly with better data.....whos going to be the lucky poster to post the run???

[ROCK]

For entertainment purposes only the mighty 0z NAM....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


keeps it way to weak....thus the westerly track....