ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[boca]

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

It looks like 94L is dettaching itself off the ITCZ in this loop.

[Aric Dunn]

Shortwave IR shows southern inflow and what looks to be faster formation than is being expressed here:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

I agree, we need new quickscat and 85h data.

well the most recent microwave data .. earlier still showed it being very much embedded in the itcz .. and that take time to change..

[Aric Dunn]

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/C_Atl/IR/atl_ir1_loop.gif

It looks like 94L is dettaching itself off the ITCZ in this loop.

unfortunately... we need visible to or some good microwave passes to confirm it has.. IR will not do it..

[Normandy]

My thoughts.........
Might be the first serious thread to any landmass in the Atlantic this season (Im specifically talking about the islands right now). Watching Bertha take off in SST's similar to what this is in makes me worry. Hard to see this totally sparing the islands from any effects whatsoever (would have to gain serious latitude to safely pass the islands). The question is.......how strong will this be?

[boca]

Shortwave IR shows southern inflow and what looks to be faster formation than is being expressed here:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

I agree, we need new quickscat and 85h data.

well the most recent microwave data .. earlier still showed it being very much embedded in the itcz .. and that take time to change..

The more time it takes to get detached from the ITCZ the further west it will threaten.

[Sanibel]

Even apparent on the night time visible:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html


This is already a TD. Fix- 11.3N-39.7W

My opinion is strictly my own and has no connection to Storm2k or its owners.

[Weatherfreak000]

Future Cristobal has a much better chance at U.S. Landfall then Bertha ever had IMO. A storm having to traverse the entire Atlantic such as Bertha is always a good candidate for recurvature.

That said my previous post regarding Florida was semi-humorous. Florida gets black listed because of the sheer amount of people I disagree with and everyone knows that. I think we can definitely agree Florida and perhaps a path into the Gulf may possibly be a legitimate threat this time around given recent model runs but again it's too early.

Yeah, but with a negitive NAO, recurvature is supposed to be less likely is it not?

Regardless, the weakness created by Bertha is a variable that changes the general outlook.

[cycloneye]

[Scorpion]

94L really organized quickly. Barring any strange activity it should be a TD at 5.

['CaneFreak]

Even apparent on the night time visible:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html


This is already a TD. Fix- 11.3N-39.7W

My opinion is strictly my own and has no connection to Storm2k or its owners.

Survey says "Incorrect". Guess that is why we don't work at the NHC. They did not declare this at 11pm for a reason. ITS STILL ATTACHED TO THE ITCZ. It looked like this two hours ago.

[deltadog03]

If, you look at it....the weakness from bertha really does NOTHING to this storm...Bertha will be gone by day 5 and the ridge builds back in.

['CaneFreak]

If, you look at it....the weakness from bertha really does NOTHING to this storm...Bertha will be gone by day 5 and the ridge builds back in.

Exactly. Questions of the hour: Is this thing still attached to the ITCZ? Can we tell? Will we be able to tell before we get Visible imagery in the AM?

[CourierPR]

Even apparent on the night time visible:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html


This is already a TD. Fix- 11.3N-39.7W

My opinion is strictly my own and has no connection to Storm2k or its owners.

Survey says "Incorrect". Guess that is why we don't work at the NHC. They did not declare this at 11pm for a reason. ITS STILL ATTACHED TO THE ITCZ. It looked like this two hours ago.

The NHC says it remains attached or are you speaking for yourself?

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm certainly weary of the weakness part as well come to think.


Wxman, why would the weakness affect a storm a week away from that position in the first place?

['CaneFreak]

Even apparent on the night time visible:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html


This is already a TD. Fix- 11.3N-39.7W

My opinion is strictly my own and has no connection to Storm2k or its owners.

Survey says "Incorrect". Guess that is why we don't work at the NHC. They did not declare this at 11pm for a reason. ITS STILL ATTACHED TO THE ITCZ. It looked like this two hours ago.

The NHC says it remains attached or are you speaking for yourself?

Go back and look at the old microwave images for yourself and you will see that it was still attached to the ITCZ a few hours ago and it takes more than a few hours for it to detach itself from the ITCZ as Aric pointed out if bothered to read his post.

[BobHarlem]

Holy Cow!! This thing has been way too hyped here. It's not a depression, it may tomorrow, if it flares up and sticks.

['CaneFreak]

Even apparent on the night time visible:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html


This is already a TD. Fix- 11.3N-39.7W

My opinion is strictly my own and has no connection to Storm2k or its owners.

Survey says "Incorrect". Guess that is why we don't work at the NHC. They did not declare this at 11pm for a reason. ITS STILL ATTACHED TO THE ITCZ. It looked like this two hours ago.

The NHC says it remains attached or are you speaking for yourself?

Prove me wrong.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Holy Cow!! This thing has been way too hyped here. It's not a depression, it may tomorrow, if it flares up and sticks.

All surface data we have shows it has a closed LLC. It is close to becoming disattached from the freaking itcz, and it is looking to becoming something very interesting. Hyped, I don't think so. Some people need to wait intil the quickscat or new 85h data but I would be willing to say that this could become a serious event.

But lets keep on keeping on!

[boca]

As long as this remains part of the ITCZ will it form into a depression and will it move west not WNW to follow the flow?

[HurricaneRobert]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2 ... /slp21.png might have it meeting a similar fate as the overhyped Chris from 2006 (and why are there two variants on the same freaking name?)