ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think this is just as possible strength wise and track.

[KWT]

Looks good enough for an upgrade still IMO even though its not amazing to look at right now I've seen less get upgraded before!

Matt, thats similar to the ECM track I believe however I think the one difference is we have Bertha still about this time around whilst that set-up did not. Also according to the estimates this has been tracking WNW recently.

[HURAKAN]

I don't if anything has changed, but yesterday there wasn't any impediment for this system not to reach hurricane status before the islands. If this is the case, then a track further north can be expected.

[KWT]

The thing that I hope doesn't happen is a track over one island after another, not only would that kill this system but also have major impacts on the islands with regards to mudslides flash flooding etc, I remember what Jeanne did.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks alright, but I'm not sure the LLC is defined enough to be upgraded. Also the convection has decreased; I believe the nhc will wait intil convection reforms around 5pm for the upgrade.

I've got one of my hurricane season 2004 hurricane tapes in, when I used to have the weather channel. I used to tape the hurricanes and storms, and this one is about Charley, as of now it is just south of Cuba at 105 mph. Those where the days!

I got one of Frances to and Ivan. Keith 2000, Bertha 2002, Kyle.

[KWT]

Maybe Matt though I still think its going to get upgraded today sometime. Convection isn't amazing but it wasn't all that amazing when Bertha was upgraded either so as long as there is deep convection nearby and a closed center I think it deserves an upgrade.

[tropicsPR]

Convection is increasing toward the center of circulation:

[KWT]

Yep convection is a little scattered out still but its increasing again and it still seems to be close to being a tropical depression.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

I'm guessing that deep convection on the southern side is a part of the ITCZ?
Doesn't look all that bad but I think the next 6-12hrs are going to determine if its a TD today or not.

[HURAKAN]

[AJC3]

Latest QS pass is less than impressive...

[Chacor]

Still having trouble from getting out of the ITCZ, it looks like. By the way, in reference to some posts from earlier on in the thread, a number of EPac and CPac cyclones have been upgraded to depressions while still embedded within the ITCZ.

[KWT]

There is some turning down near 10N on that pass though whether its closed off I really can't say to be honest, it may not be enough to justify this being upgraded however.

[Thunder44]

Going by the latest QS, it looks like the area of low pressure is still very elongated. We probably won't see an upgrade at 11am, unless visible imagery shows something different by then.

[bob rulz]

There's still quite a while until the next advisory.

A lot can happen in 5 hours.

[KWT]

Agreed any LLC is pretty elongated W-E it appears right now, not really enough to justify a depression just yet though it does seem to be getting there steadily.

[Nimbus]

All I see is storm relative turning centered down near 10N but I only looked at the wider central atlantic view.
Weak and west sounds right short term. Most of the models this orning have it going into the Caribbean,
but we don't have a clear LLC to initialize with yet.

Bertha is starting to move out so the NHC will be busy with storm advisories. Often a recurving storm like Bertha leaves a weakness for the next storm to follow, but Bertha has been drifting a long time in the same place. 94 L looks too far south to have any interaction with Bertha. Bertha would really have to loop back around deep to the south.