ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HURAKAN]

A very easterly flow in the low levels.

[KWT]

The thing thats make me wonder is right now its picking up latitude, LLC now at 11N already and appears to have almost been moving NW recently. I know ther eis no certain center but there is according to Qscat a elongated LLC near 11N further north then where it was last night. If we are to believe the Caribbean runner idea then its going to have to stop climbing latitude this far east otherwise it will do a Geroges and hit one island after another.

Hurakan, yep that does look quite good for a westerly track, I think once we see a proper LLC form it probably will stop gaining latitude like it has been recently.
Can also see where the weakness could still be.

[HURAKAN]

So much exitement yesterday and so quiet today, although it's early and 94L is not up to the expectations of many.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

As it happens Hurakan this is usually the slowest part of the day anyway I tend to find.
Anyway I believe wxman57 stated it may not be a tropical depression till Tuesday, that may well end up being the case if it doesn't get its act sorted soon.

[wzrgirl1]

how depressing .....i thought i would wake up to a day of fun here.....oh well....i guess i have to keep busy doing something else today

[HURAKAN]

how depressing .....i thought i would wake up to a day of fun here.....oh well....i guess i have to keep busy doing something else today

Aren't the tropics amazing? When you think you solved the riddle, you find out that you were completely wrong. Conditions favor development and time will tell.

[KWT]

The thing is the center is still a little elongated, once it sorts that out then there is no reason why it can't develop eventually but whether or not that happens today is course another matter.

[HURAKAN]

Looking worse.

[wzrgirl1]

yep....nothing a little coffee can't solve for now.....i do still believe that we will see a cyclone out of this....maybe just a little slower to develop then we anticipated

[wzrgirl1]

is the bottom half of that from the ITCZ....how odd looking

[Normandy]

Why all the panic? Check that microwave out and you see a pretty well organized Invest. I believe for sure it'll be classified eventually.

[KWT]

Convection realy has decayed at a time when you would have thought it should be at its best, Dmax!
Not a great sign for this system have to admit but still its early days and theres no reason why convection won't eventually develop near that elongated center again.

I think that deep convection is part of the ITCZ.

[Derek Ortt]

the GFS has been analyzing it as a very elongated area of vorticity. May be why it is not developing the system now

[KWT]

Possibly Derek and right now Qscat does show a pretty elongated center but whether or not that will stay the same who knows.
Then again the models aren't always very good when it comes to systems strength.

[Vortex]

Over the last 24 hours the structure has continued to improve..While the LLC is still elongated and loosley defined the overall organization continues at a modest clip..Once the LLC tightens and deep convection develops over the center thing will change on this board very quickly ..In this situation I'd hedge on the next 12-24 hours for this process to begin..Once the storm reaches 50w water temps continue to increase as well..Still think were dealing with a hurricane once it reaches the islands..

[Thunder44]

the GFS has been analyzing it as a very elongated area of vorticity. May be why it is not developing the system now

Yeah, I just looked at the 0z and 6z runs. It's also seems to be favoring development of a different system, in the Carribean. My opinion is to just wait and see if this area gets better organized today.

[KWT]

I agree Vortex the actual structure looks better then it did yesterday but it is badly lacking in any deep convection, I can't imagine why it won't develop convection again some time in the next 24hrs but you just never know with these systems.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT.
A 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 11N. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE WELL DEFINED ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC
TURNING...FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
40W-45W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 36W-44W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 141155
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED AT THE PRESENT
TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN