ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

Slightly less agressive TWO compared to about 12hrs, still expected to become a TD soon but not quite as quickly as was first expected.

[Blown Away]

The structure looks much better than yesterday all we need is more deep convection and we have a TD. All the conditions are there for 94L to develop. Still moving WNW. I think TD by 5pm or 11pm.

[Chacor]

Nitpicking here, but the thread title is misleading. It says "Invest 94: TD later today or tomorrow", but there's no guarantee of this happening. The TWO only says could become a TD today or tomorrow.

I realise that it most likely will, but as always in the tropics, you can never be sure.

[KWT]

Agreed BA but ther eis no certainty that deep convection will reform we just have to wait and see with this one, if it does re-develop deep convection then its very likely going to get upgraded but right now thats a little bit away it seems.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, the structure does look good, but it is the lacking convection that has me a bit worried. I am also a bit confused at why the GFS has dropped this system, and could that mean something? Though I still think 94L will eventually develop into a decent system, I always have Chris 2006 hanging in the back of my mind. Like 94L, Chris was a very hyped storm that we all went crazy over. In the end though, Chris never really met any of our expectations, and he fooled everyone as he suddenly died. Will 94L suddenly die too after all this excitement? Or will 94L re-develop convection and continue on the journey we all expected yesterday? I guess we will just have to wait and find out...

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

As more visible images come in the Circulation is very clear to see. the center is about 41.5 west by 12 north.

[NDG]

Ouch, that TWO hurts some people that were calling this a TD last night,
Last night it was very apparent that the defined circulation was only in the ML, with still a broad surface circulation, otherwise the convection will had never died had the LLC being in place.

[KWT]

Derek believes that because the models have a very broad region of Voricity the models aren't developing this very much. We have to wait and see what happens.

Convection does need to develop again if it is to keep the decent structure it started to form recently. Circulation still very evident as well.

[Thunder44]

The lack of convection this morning, shows that the LLC may be too weak or disorganized to sustained it.

[Vortex]

Yeah, the structure does look good, but it is the lacking convection that has me a bit worried. I am also a bit confused at why the GFS has dropped this system, and could that mean something? Though I still think 94L will eventually develop into a decent system, I always have Chris 2006 hanging in the back of my mind. Like 94L, Chris was a very hyped storm that we all went crazy over. In the end though, Chris never really met any of our expectations, and he fooled everyone as he suddenly died. Will 94L suddenly die too after all this excitement? Or will 94L re-develop convection and continue on the journey we all expected yesterday? I guess we will just have to wait and find out...

the GFS for days has indicated development and in fact nailed the formation of low pressure once again nearly a week out..The last 2 runs show little or no development-correct-. However, if your looking for development I wouldn't be overly concerned on the latest GFS trends..I've seen this scenario happen several times over the years... If we didn't have a developing system which we do and/or the conditions environmentally were hostile which is not the case then I'd give the latest GFS latest runs more credence. For now i'm dismissing the trend on the 00z/6Z runs..Still expecting a Hurricane for the islands..

[KWT]

I think the problem is thunder the LLC is pretty elongated, Qscat showed that really nicely with it stretched W-E, it wasn't very circular at all.

Development is still quite likely but its got to tighten that LLC up into a better shape before it can push on, I remember a EPAC invest this year had the same issue and took nearly 3 days to become a TD because of that.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This thing is just getting ready to blossom..Its structure is there and i see a much more consolidated structure to it this morning...All this fluxuation(delay in dev) did IMO was get this into the Carribean rather than north of it..

[Blown Away]

I think 94L is working to break away from the ITCZ rate now and in a few hours at WNW 94L will break away and take a few gulps of those warm SST's and start to build. If 94L remains 94L then it will run W as a shallow system and I think that's what the models are doing rate now, once 94L becomes Cristobal he will find the weakness left by Bertha and move WNW to NW towards the NE Caribbean.

[Derek Ortt]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

MAJOR PROBLEM!!!

There is no low level convergence

Right now, environmental conditions are unfavorable for this to develop (you must first have the favorable lower levels before the upper levels matter)

[KWT]

Maybe BA there is quite a strong upper high to the N/NW of this system currently so I will be surprised if it lifts up much at all from where it is now, W/WNW track looking the best guide right now for a little while.

Interestingly this does appear to be track more to the WNW then many models were expecting this early...model tracks shifting westwards but I think PR/Hispaniola needs to watch this so closely, thats the main risk still IMO.

Derek, how long would that take to sort out?

[caribepr]

You guys know me, I'm not one to jump on development potential whenever I see a cumulus cloud in the tropics. But I do think that this system has a good chance of becoming Cristobal this week. It's more than 24 hours away from a depression, probably 48 hours or more, but it's slowly organizing. As I look at the environment in its path I see considerable weakness in the ridge to its north as it nears the Caribbean. This should allow it to gain significant latitude over the coming days. I'd discard the current BAM runs taking into South America. They don't look realistic at all.

I think that the northeast Caribbean islands would be at greatest risk by Friday. Thereafter, we'll have to see just how weak the ridge to the north is and how strong Cristobal becomes (I've already created a Cristobal folder for my 2009 hurricane talks and I'm saving all images of this system there) by the time it reaches 60W. With Bertha still hanging around near Bermuda in 4-5 days, this might allow 94L to track more WNW-NW after reaching the NE Caribbean. Question is, does high pressure build in to its north, blocking it and shoving it west or does it take a path similar to Bertha but more west? My initial thought is the latter. Similar path to Bertha but more west before the turn north. I certainly wouldn't rule out an east coast threat at this point, but with the Bermuda high now so weak west of 60W I'm thinking a Gulf threat is not very likely.

I am reposting the great analysis from one of our pro mets wxman57 for those who haved not read it as it was posted late this morning.mj,these are the kind of posts that you want to see.

Luis, exacto!! wxman57, thank you - we're paying attention!

[NDG]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

MAJOR PROBLEM!!!

There is no low level convergence

Right now, environmental conditions are unfavorable for this to develop (you must first have the favorable lower levels before the upper levels matter)

I agree Derek, I pointed that out last night also, a good reason why convection died out earlier this morning near the MLC.

[Thunder44]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

MAJOR PROBLEM!!!

There is no low level convergence

Right now, environmental conditions are unfavorable for this to develop (you must first have the favorable lower levels before the upper levels matter)

I also don't see any LLC on visible loop from the NHC floater. Looks like there maybe some turning in clouds, but they appear to be at mid-level.

[HURAKAN]

The LL Convergence has changed a lot from yesterday.

[HURAKAN]