ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[x-y-no]

Looks like a closed circulation to me. There's at least some slight west winds on the south side.

[NDG]

Some surface convergence starting to get going on the northern side, with maybe a southeasterly inflow starting to get going soon, if not by 11 PM tonight definitely by 5 AM tomorrow morning for it to get upgraded to TD npw that a LLC seems to present or starting to get going.

[gatorcane]

[KWT]

Yeah I also think its got a closede circulation its just the convective side of things that aren't amazing. Still there is convection firing on the northern side and hopefully we will that process continue. Still want to see more convection closer to the center of the system, granted there is probably also still a broad circulation as well.

Still with that convective burst further north it does look better then it did at least on IR then about 6hrs ago when convection was really falling away.

[Extremeweatherguy]

94L definitely looks better organized to me now than when I first woke up this morning. It seems like the system is finally starting to break free from the ITCZ and the convection seems to be consolidating a little closer to the center than it was before...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

If we can see a big burst of convection right over the center, then this should quickly be on its way to becoming a TD.

[KWT]

Gatorcane, interesting to see the thinking on the position of this system in 72hrs time, pretty much at the same latitude it is now implying a nearly due west path. IMO they are too far south but looks like the windward islands will have to deal with this in about 3-4 days time.

Extreme-Yep just waiting for either that convective burst over the N side of the circulation to slowly wind round the western side of the system or for a fresh region of convection to get going, we will have to wait and see!

[x-y-no]

With warmer waters ahead and not dramatically bad moisture conditions ahead, I have to think convection will increase.

[x-y-no]

Gatorcane, interesting to see the thinking on the position of this system in 72hrs time, pretty much at the same latitude it is now implying a nearly due west path. IMO they are too far south but looks like the windward islands will have to deal with this in about 3-4 days time.

Extreme-Yep just waiting for either that convective burst over the N side of the circulation to slowly wind round the western side of the system or for a fresh region of convection to get going, we will have to wait and see!

I'm looking at the BAMS and later BAMM as my guides for now. Once we get a TD (if we do) I'll start looking more at the dynamic models (to the extent that they initialize correctly.)

[cycloneye]

If it continues to organize,NHC may put out a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement.

[KWT]

Well thats what you'd think x-y-no with higher heat content and good enough moisture levels convection will increase but getting convergence which would really help to pop the storms may be a slow process.

[Frank2]

Just a quick comment - about 7 ET this morning, Jeff Morrow (TWC OCM), who's been at TWC for many years, mentioned that (94L) was primarily a MLC at this time, so, understandable why the NHC has not yet upgraded it to a TD...

Frank

[gatorcane]

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Well I agree that convection is going to pop near the center sometime later on today which will get the whole formation process going.

Interesting to note, NHC has Bertha moving out to the ENE more quickly now, so what about the possible weakness left behind by Bertha? I think the gap is closing and 94L is likely not going to be able to escape through it.

Thoughts?

what worries me looking out into the extended range is that the Western Atlantic ridge that would steer 94L WNW for about 5 days collapses which would allow NW to N turn at some point. I think its likely we will not see a Dean or Felix track out of 94L given the GFS long-range depiction of the synoptic setup.

Thoughts on the long-range steering flow?

[KWT]

Well its tought to say really Frank, it does seem as though the MLC is stronger then any LLC however without recon we just can't be sure. I think in this set-up there is no point in really rushing in with this so I suppose no point in the NHc rushing headlong into calling this a depression.

[rjgator]

Latest floater shows a nice pop to the North of the center trying to start to wrap around.

[smw1981]

Quick question...

IF 94L does become better organized, what is the time frame of it hitting the islands (say around Dominican Republic)?

[cycloneye]

Quick question...

IF 94L does become better organized, what is the time frame of it hitting the islands (say around Dominican Republic)?

Depends on how is the foward speed,but lets say it is moving at 15 mph,then it may be close to the longituds of the Dominican Republic by the 20th.

[x-y-no]

Quick question...

IF 94L does become better organized, what is the time frame of it hitting the islands (say around Dominican Republic)?

Four days, more or less I'd say for the widward islands. Maybe six to the vicinity of DR.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Quick question...

IF 94L does become better organized, what is the time frame of it hitting the islands (say around Dominican Republic)?

3 days to Lesser Antilles, 4 to 5 days to La Republica Dominicana, if one accepts the timing of the 6Z GFDL.

GFDL keeps center off Hispaniola, but it is too soon to have confidence in that.


In my unprofessional, humble, and amateur opinion.

[x-y-no]

We'll see. I'm inclined to expect some slightly slower movement.

[KWT]

Yep its too early to tell the track for anywhere further west then probably the Windward islands which probably will feel some impacts from this system, in what form it will be is another question we won't know till the time!

I'd guess for the central Caribbean probably around 5-6 days time, for the eastern islands such as the windward islands I'd guess 3-4 days.