ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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weatherguru18

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L East of the Windward Islands

#721 Postby weatherguru18 » Mon Jul 14, 2008 1:58 pm

I don't think the Quikscat is all that impressive wind wise. There is definite mid and low level circulation. I thought for sure the way things were going last night that we'd have Cristobal by now.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html
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#722 Postby Gustywind » Mon Jul 14, 2008 1:59 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L East of the Windward Islands

#723 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:04 pm

weatherguru18 wrote:I don't think the Quikscat is all that impressive wind wise. There is definite mid and low level circulation. I thought for sure the way things were going last night that we'd have Cristobal by now.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html


Both are very old passes.The acending was early this morning at 8:42 utc and the decending at 2139 utc yesterday afternoon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L East of the Windward Islands

#724 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:05 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Don't expect a upgrade. I've seen systems get a 3.0t in not be upgraded before, this system is very unstable and has not been able to keep its convection. The nhc will went to see convection remain over the LLC for 12+ hours before they upgrade. Also they will went to see low level convergence developing to make sure that they are not wasting their time. I think it will be 11am tomarrow.


Alot can happen in a very short amount of time. 11pm EST is a ways off still so they could upgrade tonight. Structure appears to be improving quickly!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L East of the Windward Islands

#725 Postby Sanibel » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:07 pm

Obvious cyclogenesis. All depends if conditions let it further develop.

Yesterday the convection flare happened later in the day. Plenty of deep convection to its south today too.
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#726 Postby Kat's Toy » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:13 pm

First post here, love the site been lurking for 3 years.

CNBC reported during an oil update that the NHC is concerned about a tropical low in the Atlantic that may develop into a Tropical Storm within 48 hours. They even put it at the bottom of the screen.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L East of the Windward Islands

#727 Postby Blown Away » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:14 pm

I don't care what the models are saying, this is one good looking invest. 94L looks better than a number of those sheared TD's we watched last season.
[img]Image
Image[/img]
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Derek Ortt

#728 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:15 pm

its one bad looking invest... you do need convection near or voer the cnter, not on the outer edges of the circulation
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Re:

#729 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:15 pm

Kat's Toy wrote:First post here, love the site been lurking for 3 years.

CNBC reported during an oil update that the NHC is concerned about a tropical low in the Atlantic that may develop into a Tropical Storm within 48 hours. They even put it at the bottom of the screen.


Of course they did.

And welcome to S2K. (Is it still a welcome when you've been lurking for 3 years?)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L East of the Windward Islands

#730 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:18 pm

I still think it needs more convection for an upgrade, especially that area of nothing in between the two areas. I'll be really surprised if it's a TD at 5. But it won't take much if a blowup does occur.
Last edited by Brent on Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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weatherguru18

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L East of the Windward Islands

#731 Postby weatherguru18 » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:18 pm

As already stated, one burst of convection near the center will probably warrent an upgrade. However, I don't look for anything to happen til' 11pm at the earliest.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L East of the Windward Islands

#732 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:19 pm

Brent wrote:I still think it needs more convection for an upgrade, especially that area of nothing in between the two areas. I'll be really surprised if it's a TD at 5.


I'd be shocked beyond belief if they upgraded this before 5am tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L East of the Windward Islands

#733 Postby ColdFusion » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:20 pm

Blown_away wrote:I don't care what the models are saying, this is one good looking invest.


Derek Ortt wrote:its one bad looking invest...


LMAO
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#734 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:20 pm

I find it hard to ignore that twist and formation of new T-storms to the south...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
Last edited by DESTRUCTION5 on Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#735 Postby Kat's Toy » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:21 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Kat's Toy wrote:First post here, love the site been lurking for 3 years.

CNBC reported during an oil update that the NHC is concerned about a tropical low in the Atlantic that may develop into a Tropical Storm within 48 hours. They even put it at the bottom of the screen.


Of course they did.

And welcome to S2K. (Is it still a welcome when you've been lurking for 3 years?)



Probably not, but I don't have much too add. However, I get great info from all you guys and girls and it keeps me alert here in New Orleans. I figured this was something you would find interesting. OK back to the back row.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L East of the Windward Islands

#736 Postby Gustywind » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:21 pm

Sanibel wrote:Obvious cyclogenesis. All depends if conditions let it further develop.

Yesterday the convection flare happened later in the day. Plenty of deep convection to its south today too.

Yeah Sanibel, there's a lot of fuel on the south to support convection, it's amazing very huge amount, matter of time for 94L..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L East of the Windward Islands

#737 Postby Sanibel » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:21 pm

Looks like a healthy well-formed circulation waiting for convection to start up the cyclonic engine. If Bertha's weirdness translates to 94L at this latitude it should form.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L East of the Windward Islands

#738 Postby Decomdoug » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:23 pm

Looks like the Sun Sentinel may have jumped the gun a bit.


"A new tropical depression is likely to form in the Central Atlantic possibly before the end of day today"


http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/we ... n_atl.html
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#739 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:23 pm

Compared to most of the invests I have seen over the last two years, I would agree with Blown_Away in saying that this one looks pretty good. In fact, 94L currently looks better to me than some classified systems we have seen in the past...

TD #6 (2003) = http://www.eis.noaa.gov/NNVLfolder/TDSi ... 1945zB.jpg

TD Kyle (2002) = http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/im ... 10-02b.jpg - - No convection even near the center, yet still considered a TD.

TS Melissa (2007) = http://blog.nola.com/hurricane_impact/2 ... 07_avn.jpg

TD Chris (2006) = http://static.flickr.com/86/206648412_66099b8116.jpg

94L (Current) = http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

...This is just my opinion though.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L East of the Windward Islands

#740 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:25 pm

If this become Cristobal,and we also see Dolly form this month,it will officially be an above average period for storm formation.The average is two in July. A US hurricane strike in July is very rare.I hope it doesn't happen this season :eek:
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