ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[Thunder44]

It looks like to me, that the GFS and GFDL, don't develop 94L, perhaps because they are trying to form something else in the Carribean.

The latest Ukmet seems to have that same problem too.

[cpdaman]

is 94L forecast to pick up speed when it gets into the stronger period of easterlies.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z Euro sees a weak system entering the Caribbean in 3 days, then dying...

[Ivanhater]

Its hard to discount almost all these models not developing 94 L...but we will see...

[Gustywind]

The 18:00 UTC BAMS have it moving at 295 degrees at 14kts and pressure of 1007 mbs.

WHXX01 KWBC 141808
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1808 UTC MON JUL 14 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080714 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080714 1800 080715 0600 080715 1800 080716 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 43.3W 12.6N 46.5W 13.4N 50.1W 13.8N 54.3W
BAMD 11.8N 43.3W 12.5N 45.6W 13.2N 47.9W 13.6N 50.1W
BAMM 11.8N 43.3W 12.5N 45.9W 13.3N 48.9W 13.8N 51.9W
LBAR 11.8N 43.3W 12.4N 45.6W 13.1N 48.2W 13.6N 50.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080716 1800 080717 1800 080718 1800 080719 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 58.9W 17.3N 67.6W 19.1N 76.5W 21.4N 85.0W
BAMD 14.0N 52.4W 14.4N 57.4W 15.0N 63.1W 15.6N 68.7W
BAMM 14.2N 55.2W 15.1N 62.0W 16.2N 69.0W 17.6N 76.1W
LBAR 14.2N 54.0W 15.5N 60.6W 16.8N 67.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 44KTS 53KTS 60KTS 65KTS
DSHP 44KTS 53KTS 60KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 43.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 40.6W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 9.5N LONM24 = 38.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Martinica Dominica especiallly and Guadeloupe too really in the cone of a probable impact, second time of the day, seems that the Eastern Carib and the Leewards could experience" something " should it verifies first, but i don't like the path but let'see the next others runs, hope nothing too serious if this trend is confirmed...

[HURRICANELONNY]

Models are useless till a system forms. No use in even looking at them.

[KWT]

Hmmm look where the 12z GFDL starts, its not actually started in the right place and the GFS is even worse. I think the models aren't going to be any good until we get a decent center fix.

[Ivanhater]

Models are useless till a system forms. No use in even looking at them.

You cant discount them when they all start to drop the system..you have to look why that is happening...I would not be surprised if 94 L washes out like the models are showing..just the same it still could develop, but no one was saying models were useless when they were developing this, why are they useless now?

[txwatcher91]

Models are useless till a system forms. No use in even looking at them.

You cant discount them when they all start to drop the system..you have to look why that is happening...I would not be surprised if 94 L washes out like the models are showing..just the same it still could develop, but no one was saying models were useless when they were developing this, why are they useless now?

Because the models do not handle intensity well. Look at how quickly Bertha intensified and weakend, none of the models showed it doing that so quickly. If this develops into a TS then shear is forecast to stay below 20kts and this would favor steady intensification.

[KWT]

Well the other thing is they may be keying into a lack of convergence. The problem with the models is they show nothing at all even at 000hrs where there is at least right now a clear weak circulation present, that suggests they just aren't seeing the ssytem yet.

[Derek Ortt]

Models are useless till a system forms. No use in even looking at them.

You cant discount them when they all start to drop the system..you have to look why that is happening...I would not be surprised if 94 L washes out like the models are showing..just the same it still could develop, but no one was saying models were useless when they were developing this, why are they useless now?

Because the models do not handle intensity well. Look at how quickly Bertha intensified and weakend, none of the models showed it doing that so quickly. If this develops into a TS then shear is forecast to stay below 20kts and this would favor steady intensification.

the true answer would be "Because I don't like what they are saying"

if you really meant what you said, you would not be paying attention to their intensity forecasts, ever. But most here do pay attention to them when they say strong storm

[Ivanhater]

Models are useless till a system forms. No use in even looking at them.

You cant discount them when they all start to drop the system..you have to look why that is happening...I would not be surprised if 94 L washes out like the models are showing..just the same it still could develop, but no one was saying models were useless when they were developing this, why are they useless now?

Because the models do not handle intensity well. Look at how quickly Bertha intensified and weakend, none of the models showed it doing that so quickly. If this develops into a TS then shear is forecast to stay below 20kts and this would favor steady intensification.

Your point is also true, which is why im not sold on development nor washing out yet, but the problem is not intensity, the models dont see this converging from the start..so the people who just want to discount the models all of a sudden need to step back and look at why they dont even see 94L forming...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Using the JMA as a tie breaker, available on the PPV AccuWx site- moves through the Caribbean as a strong and well developed, but open, tropical wave. A week from Tuesday it finally closes an isobar, but is moving into the Southern Yucatan.


Since on the very last frame of visible shows it apparently trying to pop a shower near the apparent LLC, I'll go with a bold, hearty 50/50 chance of development. Either it will develop, or it won't.


Bold and hearty probabilities unofficial, and not endorsed by Storm2K or the National Football League. Any reproduction, transmission or display not expressly authorized by the National Football League and the Dallas Cowbosy is strictly prohibited.

[txwatcher91]

the true answer would be "Because I don't like what they are saying"

if you really meant what you said, you would not be paying attention to their intensity forecasts, ever. But most here do pay attention to them when they say strong storm

I mostly just look at shear and SST because IF this develops then shear will be important, and the SHIPS shows fairly light shear through 120 hours, so if this develops then I think it is fairly likely this one will intensify due to low shear and warm SST's. I don't really pay attention to what the models show as far as intensity is concerned because we have seen time and time again how they can be wrong both ways.

[Aquawind]

Well as entertaining as this schmodel talk can be..Everything can change when and if it gets classified and stacked.

[Nimbus]

94L is still bowling along pretty fast down near 12N. There is plenty of warm water between 45W and the islands for this to spin up and no model can predict intensity accurately. Anyone plotting the forward speed of the center? If its over 20 MPH that could hinder development.

[cycloneye]

Whoa,whoa!!! 18z GFDL gives long life to 94L!

WHXX04 KWBC 142330
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.7 43.6 295./14.0
6 10.6 46.4 249./29.4
12 11.6 47.0 332./11.3
18 11.8 49.4 274./24.2
24 12.1 51.1 278./16.2
30 12.1 53.3 270./21.6
36 13.0 55.1 296./20.2
42 12.7 57.3 263./21.1
48 12.9 59.6 275./22.6
54 13.1 61.3 276./16.4
60 12.9 62.5 265./11.7
66 13.3 64.2 280./17.3
72 13.6 65.6 283./13.7
78 14.0 67.3 283./16.8
84 14.4 68.6 287./13.8
90 14.9 71.2 280./25.6
96 14.9 73.1 271./17.7
102 14.8 74.8 266./17.0
108 15.1 76.5 282./16.2
114 15.0 78.1 268./15.5
120 15.3 79.5 282./13.9
126 15.7 80.8 286./13.7

[KWT]

Woah it takes a huge dip to the south accoding to this run, thats not going to happen at all is it. Still other then that looks pretty reasonable to me, generally W/WNW, also pretty far south as well...looks a threat to the Yucatan on this run!

[Brent]

Whoa,whoa!!! 18z GFDL gives long life to 94L!

WHXX04 KWBC 142330
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.7 43.6 295./14.0
6 10.6 46.4 249./29.4
12 11.6 47.0 332./11.3
18 11.8 49.4 274./24.2
24 12.1 51.1 278./16.2
30 12.1 53.3 270./21.6
36 13.0 55.1 296./20.2
42 12.7 57.3 263./21.1
48 12.9 59.6 275./22.6
54 13.1 61.3 276./16.4
60 12.9 62.5 265./11.7
66 13.3 64.2 280./17.3
72 13.6 65.6 283./13.7
78 14.0 67.3 283./16.8
84 14.4 68.6 287./13.8
90 14.9 71.2 280./25.6
96 14.9 73.1 271./17.7
102 14.8 74.8 266./17.0
108 15.1 76.5 282./16.2
114 15.0 78.1 268./15.5
120 15.3 79.5 282./13.9
126 15.7 80.8 286./13.7

It lives!

and moves really quickly...

I don't really buy a Mexico hit either, but it is more likely now than it would be later in the season. We just had a front come through here today though. During Dean last year we had a horrible heat ridge.

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z GFDL keeps this weak, below hurricane force...