ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[curtadams]

Seriously, very few invests have such a well-defined LLC as this and don't eventually develop into at least a TD/TS. The hardest part about developing a TC is usually getting that LLC going.

Absolutely true; but this thing seems to be experiencing unusually hostile upper-air conditions (as in stable). The center keeps firing off thunderstorms but they fizzle before starting deep convection. It's Dmax now and there's almost no deep convection. I was 95% sure of a TD yesterday but I'm glad I didn't say so because I'd have been wrong :-P

[drezee]

I believe that tonight is the night. 94L step up or step aside!!! I want convection by morning light or an open wave, you got that. I am leaning to convection by morning.

[mattpetre]

I'm staying up till we get enough convection to count. I believe I'll be in bed by 1:00am CST. The lack of cumulus clouds around the fringes is going to allow for better inflow to the center in my opinion (since it still has a good bit of low level circulation in its favor.) We'll see. BTW, I usually lurk, and really enjoy the posts of all and especially you pros that are willing to contribute to the discussion.

[Cyclone1]

I would say its still a little too early to serve Crow... lets just watch and see tonight. After words, its crow a la carte.

[Derek Ortt]

Seriously, very few invests have such a well-defined LLC as this and don't eventually develop into at least a TD/TS. The hardest part about developing a TC is usually getting that LLC going.

Absolutely true; but this thing seems to be experiencing unusually hostile upper-air conditions (as in stable). The center keeps firing off thunderstorms but they fizzle before starting deep convection. It's Dmax now and there's almost no deep convection. I was 95% sure of a TD yesterday but I'm glad I didn't say so because I'd have been wrong :-P

Its not upper levels that are hostile. It's the low levels

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bedtime, but I spy with my untrained eye a little popcorn convection ahead of this, possibly suggesting it is getting into a slightly more favorable environment.

[HURAKAN]

If convection develops or not, I will have a great sleep. Tomorrow we have RECON to Bertha!

[Cyclenall]

When I first viewed this Invest today, I was very disappointed at how crappy this thing looks. The convection just isn't there, and I'm surprised anyone was still thinking it looked good today...it looks worse then dog feces. The structure will mean nothing if deep convection can't fire over it soon enough sadly. Tons of crow to be eaten within the next few days by most.

"Time will tell" is the most unbearable one liner...

I started laughing fairly hard when I read this, how true!!

that's not the convective activity typical of a developing TC

we should see convection more like -70C, not -30C

Exactly.

The following post is NOT an official forecast or product and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Second % chance that Invest 94L will become a:

Tropical Depression: 62%
Tropical Storm: 55%
Hurricane: 25%
Category 2 Hurricane: 15%
Category 3,4, and 5 Hurricane: Unknown %

This is not from any program or scientific formula, this is just my thoughts alone on the %'s.

Far lower %'s compared to last night.

[Stratosphere747]

If convection develops or not, I will have a great sleep. Tomorrow we have RECON to Bertha!

Not sure if you meant 94L?

Is so recon isn't scheduled till Wednesday.

[NONAME]

Stratosphere747 He said recon to bertha.

[ROCK]

By the looks of things tonight the whole "how many pages this thread get" was all for naught....... Will have to see what happens in the am.

[Blown Away]

Convection starting to pop a little near the LLC, let's see if it persists.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[HurricaneHunter914]

If convection comes back tomorrow and it becomes a TD, this thread will probably double the amount of pgs there is now.

[weatherguru18]

I think Miss America's walk the other night looked better than this thing does now...ouch.

[Stratosphere747]

Stratosphere747 He said recon to bertha.

Hmm. Didn't think there were anymore Bertha missions scheduled...

[HURAKAN]

I think Miss America's walk the other night looked better than this thing does now...ouch.

Even down, she looked good. No comparison!!!

[HURAKAN]

For those watching Mary Poppings! And Good Night!

[ROCK]

Convection starting to pop a little near the LLC, let's see if it persists.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

yep, now if it can persist and build. Then we might be singing a different tune in the morning....

[mattpetre]

Keep posting the great images Hurakan, if this does get going it could be a very interesting genesis indeed. If not, at least it's something to look at while I avoid thinking about the work I should be doing.

[NONAME]

Convection starting to pop a little near the LLC, let's see if it persists.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Ya I see it it is starting to pick up a little again.