ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[wxman57]

I'll put out the official request to wxman57 to find the LLC and mark it w/ a crosshair.

Around 12N/48.5W. Looking at the first visible loops, the LLC is clearly weaker than yesterday. Convection is elongating, a pretty clear sign that it's opening up to a wave.

Bones is warming up backstage...

[cycloneye]

Big language change: 57,where is bones?

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/RHOME

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah moving to fast and still having converence problems. It is so close but it could open up to. I would still upgrade it or note it as a "depression" for record reasons. But it could easly become a wave over the next 24 hours.

I would watch the wave behind it.

[NDG]

Yeah, the nice UL conditions that it had over the last couple of days is now becoming history.

[Gustywind]

Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
6:05 a.m. ET 7/15/2008
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there are two areas of showers and thunderstorms to monitor. One is located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. There is a definite circulation with this system, but shower and thunderstorm activity has been limited overnight. There is still a chance this could develop into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Behind this system (about 700 miles to the east-southeast) is another tropical wave that has quite a bit of thunderstorm activity that will also be monitored for any further development.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

[Thunder44]

I'll put out the official request to wxman57 to find the LLC and mark it w/ a crosshair.

Around 12N/48.5W. Looking at the first visible loops, the LLC is clearly weaker than yesterday. Convection is elongating, a pretty clear sign that it's opening up to a wave.

Bones is warming up backstage...

I can't disagree with this. The "elongating" theory seems to be most likely what is occuring here.

As for the enviornmental conditions, from earlier this morning it looked like shear was going to increase. Chances of this forming are going down fast.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 150925
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST TUE JUL 15 2008

NEVERTHELESS IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS DUSTY ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN
INSTRUMENTAL IN HOLDING DOWN TROPICAL STORM FORMATION AND ALL DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR 48 WEST THAT THE MODELS ONLY 48 HOURS BEFORE
FOUND SO FAVORABLE THAT THEY SPUN UP WHAT EASILY COULD HAVE BEEN A
HURRICANE AND SHUTTLED IT ACROSS THE AREA. ROTATION CONTINUES TO
BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SOME MODELS TRY TO SPIN UP
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS LATER THIS WEEK...BUT IT IS NOW LOOKING
LESS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GFS IS DELAYING AND WEAKENING
EVEN THE WAVE PASSAGE. A SECOND AREA OF MOISTURE AT 30 WEST APPEARS
TO BE CATCHING UP WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 45 DEGREES WEST
LONGITUDE AND WILL LIKELY BE THE REASON THE MODELS HAVE BEGUN
DELAYING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY. IN FACT THIS
PASSAGE MAY ACTUALLY BE TWO WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT ANY
RATE THE BEST CURVATURE OF THE WIND FIELD AND MOISTURE AT 700 MB
IS NOW ON SUNDAY AND IS FOLLOWED BY A RAPIDLY DECAYING HIGH PRESSURE.

FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MEANS THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
SATURDAY OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AND CONTINUE UNTIL
MONDAY...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL NOT BE A STRONG
WEATHER MAKER NOR YIELD EXCEPTIONAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
Good news for the moment, hope this trend will continue for all carib islanders, but we're far away of the outcome of this system, we should always monitor it in case of.... . Showers are nevertheless welcomed after the moderate drought if this pertubed area could bring something.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR
10-15 KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N
MOVING ROUGHLY WNW NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
WELL DEFINED ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC ROTATION...FOCUSED NEAR THE
LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 47W-50W. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 10N-16N. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[Sal Collaziano]

Yeah, there is something sneaking in behind 94...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[Gustywind]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200807
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
Last Updated: 11:49 GMT le 15 juillet 2008

The area of interest heading toward the Lesser Antilles has still yet to organize. Overall conditions remain favorable for Invest 94L but deeper convection is required. Right now the main burst of convection visible on the satellite imagery is located ahead of the easterly wave axis. If the convection can shift a bit to the east then we could see some development. However, in its current position this burst of convection will not lead to development.

The wave will continue to progress to the west over the medium term. The HWRF has backed off developing the system, but the GFDL is still agressive in its solution. All the models are in agreement on a track to the west-northwest across the northern Caribbean.
http://www.thestormtrack.com/tropical/a ... p_full.png

[cycloneye]

Well,ssd mantains the 2.0:

15/1145 UTC 11.8N 48.3W T2.0/2.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[HURAKAN]

How can we explain that?

[Vortex]

While it's still possible we could see minimal development before reaching the windwards it's looking more likely than not that this will come through the southern windwards as a weak low..The rain should be beneficial according to reports. In addition, most guidance continues westbound ending up in central amercia..After viewing all the data this morning I think this is reasonable...attention *may* need to be turned toward 7.5N/33W.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
15/1145 UTC 11.8N 48.3W T2.0/2.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
Numbers have not been lowered...

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: How can we explain that?

It's always suspcious Hurakan we should not ignore this system quickly the trend seems indicate a slight decrease, but who knows, always alive always something to watch!

[Derek Ortt]

NEXT INVEST PLEASE!

[HURAKAN]

Just to point out that the GTWO shows Code Orange, a drop from red. Now chances between 20-50%. Anything can happen in the tropics but 94L is not doing anything right now to be alarmed about development in the next 24 hours.

[Sanibel]

Too Weak.

[Gustywind]

Just to point out that the GTWO shows Code Orange, a drop from red. Now chances between 20-50%. Anything can happen in the tropics but 94L is not doing anything right now to be alarmed about development in the next 24 hours.

That's right Hurakan but as usual anything can happen in the tropics we should not let our guard down. Many has moved away because of the no classification as TD status ... that's funny i have hope we should see them after another big burst lol. Keep watching this system it has not pass 60W....

[wxman57]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/TAG/Tagant.jpg
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
15/1145 UTC 11.8N 48.3W T2.0/2.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
Numbers have not been lowered...

Yeah, interesting. It's clearly less organized than yesterday. I agree with Derek - NEXT!

However, Bones says he'll wait a while longer before making the final announcement.