Disturbance off NE Florida (Now invest 96L)

[NDG]

It is most likely in the mid levels, surface low pressure center is further north, which may continue to move southward closer to where the convection is this morning.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I can't tell if there is mid-level rotation or not (at this distance radar isn't looking low level), but I'll check back often.


Tampa long range radar loop.


Georgia still needs rain, right? This is a good thing if it happens?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Appears based on that surface map that there is a broad surface low. If it can move more southward, maybe it can tighten up and become a LLC. We will see. This looks very interesting.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Appears based on that surface map that there is a broad surface low. If it can move more southward, maybe it can tighten up and become a LLC. We will see. This looks very interesting.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Current low-level convergence map:


Current upper-level divergence map:


Current wind-shear map:


Current 850mb vorticity map:


The area currently seems to have most of the needed elements for slow organization..

[Ed Mahmoud]

Double Post Alert


After looking at convergence, divergence and shear maps EWG posted on Northeast GOMEX thread, and comparing satellite presentation, while the NE GOMEX is far from a lock to develop, it has a better chance than this does.


Yesterday, I thought a tropical storm reaching the mid Lesser Antilles, a path W-NW through the Caribbean to a point somewhere South of Cuba, and a turn Northwest across Cuba, coming out either side of Florida or maybe over South Florida, and a threat anywhere (depending on where it crossed Cuba) from near Mobile to Hatteras.

Now, I strongly suspect an open wave that crosses the Caribbean, hits Central America, and maybe pops in the Pacific, although the MJO phase isn't super-favorable.

The wave behind 94L also has a better chance to develop, based on presentation, shear, low level convergence, upper divergence and water vapor imagery.

The Northeast Gulf system could wind up an invest, maybe even a TD or weak storm, but I suspect it'll be more a beneficial rain maker than a threat. Too soon to tell about wave near 30ºW



Disclaimer: Unofficial, amateur, and not endorsed by Storm2K or the American Dental Association.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NHC loop overlay shows a 1012mb surface low currently sitting over the north FL peninsula with some kind of trough axis extending back into the NE Gulf...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Click the box above the visible loop that says "NWS Fronts".

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z NAM is still trying to spin "something" up just west of Tampa by tomorrow afternoon and then it moves is SLOWLY northward...

Hour 30...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030m.gif

Hour 60...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060m.gif

[NDG]

Hmm, maybe something trying to get going near 27N and 86W, MLC but all the convection underneath that collapsed and sent outflow boundaries racing east towards S Fl.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS is also showing "something" forming near the west coast of FL during the day tomorrow and then lasting through Wednesday...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_018l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

[KWT]

Well there is a chance that this may do something but its going to have to do something pretty soon if we are going to get any more other thena minimal TD.

[LSue]

Am very curious to know if something is indeed brewing around SW Florida...All I can tell you is that Naples has been pounded by rain for 3 days now!

Nice to see our lakes and canals filled again but........

Here's the latest radar out of Key West: (which as looked pretty similar for 3 days)

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

And here's the latest Hazardous Weather Outlook for the region:

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... er+Outlook

Any info would be most appreciated!

[Category 5]

This appears to be a stalled front, nothing more. I see no sign of anything.

[Jason_B]

Though really unlikely you always have to keep an eye on these things, the GOM is really weird and I've seen things spin up out of nowhere.

With that said...you can't even tell there's a disturbance in the Gulf today here in the panhandle...not a single cloud in the sky and even a nice cool breeze.

[Stormcenter]

Well there is a chance that this may do something but its going to have to do something pretty soon if we are going to get any more other thena minimal TD.

It all depends on where it develops if it does at all.

[KWT]

Yep true Stormcenter. We have seen these little stalled fronts develop something tropical countless times before in the past, not sure if this will be one of them but still requres watching IMO just in case.

[dizzyfish]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
152 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...A WEAK TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ALOFT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FL AT THE SURFACE. THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION INLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT NW THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR WED NIGHT AND THEN
LIFT NW OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE FROM THE ATLANTIC. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BEST CHANCES WEDNESDAY BEING COASTAL IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN TRANSITIONING INLAND FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON. /snip

The bolded area is what I think the models you all are referring to are seeing.

[Extremeweatherguy]

dizzyfish, yes that is what they are seeing. The question though is will this low stay over the state the whole time or will it be able to get out over water? If the later occurs, then we may see some kind of tropical development. We will just have to wait and see.

[Extremeweatherguy]

There definitely appears to be a broad spin over the state this afternoon. The storms on the east side of the peninsula are lifting more northward, while the storms off the west coast are moving more southward...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... W&loop=yes

Wind directions also seem to indicate the presence of this broad low...

[TexWx]

I'm definitely keeping my south of Texas/La.