Area in SW Caribbean (NOW INVEST 95L IN ACTIVE STORMS FORUM)

[boca]

I wonder if thats a wave or just convergence caused by westerly shear.It looks the same as 94L does.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[dixiebreeze]

Boca, I think that's a pretty good looking wave and plenty of convection in the area. Will we be in for a double or triple play in next few days? Caribbean, GOM and Atlantic?

[boca]

The NHC doesn't even mention it in their updates.

[cycloneye]

From 8 AM Discussion:

TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN PUERTO RICO ALONG 66W/67W TO
NEAR PUERTO CABELLO VENEZUELA MOVING W 15 KT. THIS FEATURE
REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
INVERTED-V CURVATURE ALONG THE AXIS IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 16N TO
INLAND OVER VENEZUELA BETWEEN 64W-72W INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS.

[PTrackerLA]

Impressive flare-up of convection. Appears to be in an area of 30kt shear but the tendency maps show shear decreasing and movement into a more favorable area. Might be worth keeping an eye on.

[NDG]

12z GFS brings this wave eventually into the western Caribbean as a strong wave, almost closes in a low pressure center by then.

[dixiebreeze]

I sure wouldn't write off anything in this picture yet:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

[KWT]

Strong convection but I can't help but feel its getting enhanced by shear, is there any hints of circulation or not, it may need watching further west but we will have to wait and see.

[wzrgirl1]

it is starting to ramp up for sure....and very rainy here in south florida as well

[HurricaneHunter914]

I think this will fizzle out later. Shear isn't low enough for anything to come out of this. It's a pretty nice looking blob of convection though.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Probably never develops, but when viewed on rainbow colored satellite loop, shaped like an Arkansas razorback.

[boca]

Area as a whole looks to be moving WNW to NW not west.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[cycloneye]

From the 2 PM TWO:

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 300 MILES
EAST OF NICARAGUA IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA LATE TOMORROW. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
TOMORROW...WITH FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

[RL3AO]

Sounds like it should be 95L soon. Can't be worse than 91L.

[cpdaman]

nhc gives it 20-50% chance of development (orange circled area) and it's moving west in a hurry looks large and running out of room fast

[Thunder44]

I noticed this area was mentioned in the TWO. Some of the models were trying to develop this area, rather than 94L.

[KWT]

A lot of scattered convection with this system but it is deep convection. It may not have the time to do anything major but none the less this area needs to be watched because whilst shear is high it is decreasing steadily.

This could well be an invest soon given the code orange for the SW Caribbean.

[O Town]

They are saying it has a better chance than the low off of FL west coast.
Probably will end up in the Pacific tho. with the present steering current.

[KWT]

Yep thats the only thing for this system, it just doesn't have enough time to really develop, heading towards land pretty quickly.

[RL3AO]

Might very well be Genevieve in three or four days.

If that happens, the 2008 season would just be a few days behind schedule for the 1992 season which had 27 storms. Georgette formed on July 14 in 1992. Of course the EPac was working on its second cat 4 at this time in 1992. 2008 hasn't been as active ACE/stregth wise.