Disturbance off NE Florida (Now invest 96L)

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KWT
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#41 Postby KWT » Tue Jul 15, 2008 2:51 pm

Looks like the broad low is centered a little bit offshore, may just be too close to for anything to come of that however.
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#42 Postby ronjon » Tue Jul 15, 2008 3:04 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA, AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PWAT THIS MORNING AT MFL REGISTERED AT 2.13 AND ACCORDING TO GPS-MET OBS IT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AT 2.1 TO 2.2 TO ACROSS THE AREA. ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDING FOR TONIGHT MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECEDE WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS KEEPING PWATS AT 2.0 TO 2.4". WHILE THIS SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE, A BROAD LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY DRIFT INTO OR NEAR THE TAMPA AREA LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING AIDING SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE LAKE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM TAKE THE BROAD LOW AND WORK IT TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO S FL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#43 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 15, 2008 3:10 pm

I see a "weak" spin but it's definitely further south and west in the GOM based on the
visible loop (click below)then what others are pointing out. Either way I wouldn't bet on anything significant forming from this.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#44 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 15, 2008 3:14 pm

This is from the HPC short range extended outlook

LARGE PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO BE
AFFECTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY TODAY. A REFLECTION OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EXIST AT THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF A
SURFACE LOW WHICH SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STAY VERY MOIST SOUTH OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT... HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY DUE TO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACHES.
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#45 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Jul 15, 2008 3:15 pm

Even JB thinks this tops out as a 40 to 50 mph storm.
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#46 Postby ronjon » Tue Jul 15, 2008 3:20 pm

Based on obs, the weak low pressure is located southwest of Cross City. Lowest pressure is 29.94F at Cross City, 29.94F at Clearwater, and 29.94F at the bouy located 100 miles west of Bayport. The buoy is reported a NW wind, Tallahassee reported a NE wind, and Tampa reports a south wind.
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#47 Postby fwbbreeze » Tue Jul 15, 2008 3:26 pm

AFD NWS Tallahassee:

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION DURING THE DIURNAL MAX PERIOD WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GOM. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION OVER THE ENE GOM MAY/COULD ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO
SLIGHTLY CONSOLIDATE AROUND A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD/ELONGATED LOW OUT OVER THE WATERS. ON
THURSDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK LOW TRACKING NORTH OVER THE
WATERS TOWARD APALACHEE BAY. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE BIG
BEND AREAS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND SHOW THE PWAT VALUES RANGING
FROM 2.25 TO 2.50 OVER PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND. MID-LEVEL THETA-E
VALUES IN THE GFS TIME HEIGHTS ARE COMING IN AROUND 340K. AT THIS
TIME...WE WILL SLIGHTLY TREND DOWN THE WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE UNTIL BETTER
CONFIDENCE IS GAINED OVER THE NEXT MODEL RUN OR TWO

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/productview ... &version=0
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#48 Postby ronjon » Tue Jul 15, 2008 3:34 pm

Starting to pick up some convection in the eastern GOM and signs of a broad rotation just west of St Pete from the RAD. Might be interesting by tomorrow morning with DMAX tonight.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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#49 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jul 15, 2008 3:40 pm

Yeah, convection is picking up big time west of Florida and the spin is becoming more and more evident too. Could definitely be getting interesting by tomorrow!
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#50 Postby Noles2006 » Tue Jul 15, 2008 3:52 pm

Let's Roll, baby!

::Eagerly awaiting ANYTHING here on the Apalachee Bay!::
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#51 Postby fwbbreeze » Tue Jul 15, 2008 3:55 pm

Noles2006 wrote:Let's Roll, baby!

::Eagerly awaiting ANYTHING here on the Apalachee Bay!::



Ponder or Weatherford....oops wrong board!!

Showers do look to be on the increase but pressures are not falling all that much yet
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#52 Postby Noles2006 » Tue Jul 15, 2008 3:59 pm

fwbbreeze wrote:
Noles2006 wrote:Let's Roll, baby!

::Eagerly awaiting ANYTHING here on the Apalachee Bay!::



Ponder or Weatherford....oops wrong board!!

Showers do look to be on the increase but pressures are not falling all that much yet


I like Drew... think he's a great guy and he's done a lot for this university... but I think it's time to hand it over to the young guy!

Yep, this disturbance has a longggggggg way to go before it amounts to anything... kinda like our offensive line.
Last edited by Noles2006 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 4:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#53 Postby N2Storms » Tue Jul 15, 2008 4:04 pm

Even if this does develope it looks like it will be another "lop sided" storm and will only affect the Peninsula and the Eastern Big Bend area...west of Apalachicola we probably won't see much of anything in the way of significant rainfall
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#54 Postby Matthew Williams » Tue Jul 15, 2008 4:15 pm

:uarrow: I wouldn't rule out the chance of this as getting as far as say Mobile. Earlier models have been rolling some sort of low into and around the Pensacola area. Ed, can you tell me why JB thinks this has a fair shot at developing?
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#55 Postby Jason_B » Tue Jul 15, 2008 4:17 pm

Hopefully if anything it can stir up some nice surf along the Gulf coast...haven't seen a decent swell up here in the panhandle all summer.
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#56 Postby fwbbreeze » Tue Jul 15, 2008 4:21 pm

Noles2006 wrote:
fwbbreeze wrote:
Noles2006 wrote:Let's Roll, baby!

::Eagerly awaiting ANYTHING here on the Apalachee Bay!::



Ponder or Weatherford....oops wrong board!!

Showers do look to be on the increase but pressures are not falling all that much yet


I like Drew... think he's a great guy and he's done a lot for this university... but I think it's time to hand it over to the young guy!

Yep, this disturbance has a longggggggg way to go before it amounts to anything... kinda like our offensive line.



totally agree with both of the above statements!!
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Re: JB homebrew-Different from MLC Gulf thread.

#57 Postby Noles2006 » Tue Jul 15, 2008 4:25 pm

Ah... now, I know that this thing is going to develop, at least into a TS... my best friend is flying down from Alaska [stationed in North Pole, AK... just got back from his 3rd trip to the middle east]... and he's rented a condo in PCB for the weekend... :lol:
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#58 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 15, 2008 4:29 pm

Yeah, clearly a circualtion right near Tampa or just northward, with convection firing up, it should be interesting in the mornig.
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#59 Postby fwbbreeze » Tue Jul 15, 2008 4:34 pm

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#60 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 15, 2008 4:36 pm

We may have Cristóbal close to home once again.
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