Disturbance off NE Florida (Now invest 96L)

[NDG]

South Wind- http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=BGCF1

West Wind- http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

NW WInd- http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039

I cannot find a single buoy reading showing any kind of easterly wind!

You have to find it further north, circulation is still very broad.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=CDRF1

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well this is interesting, a low pressure area and a large one too
along Florida's west coast.

[HURAKAN]

[Aric Dunn]

the most interesting thing i find right now when looking at if something is organizing is the radar out of tampa... showing some fairly clear signs of rotation at about 27.5n 85 w.. which is just SW of tampa about 40 miles off shore

if you have a radar program that has smoothing.. use it..

[HURAKAN]

[Aric Dunn]

that works too.. if you all want .. download the trial version of grlevel3

the setup first then the update

* http://www.grlevelx.com/downloads/grlevel3_setup.exe ( 6.1 MB, self-installing exe )
* http://www.grlevelx.com/downloads/grlevel3_update.exe ( 1.1 MB, self-installing update exe )

[Aric Dunn]

and here is the main page..
http://www.grlevelx.com/grlevel3/

[NDG]

Sat loop looks like is definitely trying to organize, with a nice UL ridge over over west central FL, it will be interesting in the morning convection wise over the coastal waters.

[ronjon]

the most interesting thing i find right now when looking at if something is organizing is the radar out of tampa... showing some fairly clear signs of rotation at about 27.5n 85 w.. which is just SW of tampa about 40 miles off shore

if you have a radar program that has smoothing.. use it..

Aric, I think u mean 27.5N, 83W right?

[Aric Dunn]

the most interesting thing i find right now when looking at if something is organizing is the radar out of tampa... showing some fairly clear signs of rotation at about 27.5n 85 w.. which is just SW of tampa about 40 miles off shore

if you have a radar program that has smoothing.. use it..

Aric, I think u mean 27.5N, 83W right?

yeah .. ooppps did not notice i wrote 5 thanks

[Aric Dunn]

if that stays off shore this could happen fairly fast over night... and i dont mean a TD or anything but it could start showing real signs of organizing.. right now its nothing more than a small meso ... but its caught my eye ..

[KWT]

Convection firing along the trough, a little low is right on the coast right now but its going to have to get a good deal to the SW if its going to have a shot at developing IMO. There is good convection firing along the trough which may help it out a little and the low is broad so if the convection remains deep then a tighter circulation may try to form offshore but I think its not all that likely to be honest. Still does need watching given we have seen these develop before even though if I had to make a call I would say nothing will come of it.

[NDG]

In the morning we should have a better idea where a more defined center is forming, by looking at surface observations and buoy reports I would say that it is just offshore to the W or NW of Tampa, since winds along the Tampa area have switched to a more southerly direction when earlier today they were all westerly.

[KWT]

Yeah it will be interesting, I think it needs to develop a good bit further tothe SW of that though if its going to have any real shot at doing something IMO even though it is progged to only slowly drift.

[HURAKAN]

In 2002, if my memory doesn't fail, we had a similar situation that allowed the formation of Authur near the Carolinas around this day.

[Aric Dunn]

last years humberto was ... great to watch evolve on radar .. its one of my favorite things to do is watch a system start from something like this and just watch it change, it amazing if you ask me..


by the way did anyone download the radar program ..

[Aric Dunn]

latest surface map has a 1013 low siting 28n 83w or just west of clearwater by about 40 miles

as of 21z

[KWT]

Yep Arthur 2002 did form just off the Carolina coast. The difference with this is there is Florida only a little to the east. IMO unless it drifts to the SW its just a little too close to shore for anything to happen even though it should develop some pretty decent convection.

Aric, I agree Humberto was amazing to watch, interestingly Lorenzo was even faster then Humberto, those 2 plus Dean and Felix were what made the 2007 season decent, without them it would have bheen a pretty boring season to watch.

[HURAKAN]

[Aric Dunn]

here is the screen shot of the radar program if anyone is interested.. current out of tampa .. The smoothing feature is the best no more pixels.

the program is free for like 30 days i think try it..