Disturbance off NE Florida (Now invest 96L)

[Aric Dunn]

yep thats it..

[KWT]

If it can get a little further to the SW this could well be out next invest, probably only has a 24hrs period to do anything but SST's are pretty high in that region and there is a good upper set-up for it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the surface low will probably try to shift southward toward where the radar is currently showing the center of a nice mid-level rotation just west of Sarasota and southwest of St. Petersburg...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[kpost]

http://www.cfnews13.com/Weather/Radar/Default.aspx#
Nice radar have to click on STATE. Odd thing is it's saying its raining here now and it is not. looks like i'm in for more rain till thurs. though.
here is a report for Central florida news 13.
http://www.cfnews13.com/Weather/Default.aspx

[Sanibel]

See that too on radar. Long lasting overcast here in July should be watched:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[Aric Dunn]

I think the surface low will probably try to shift southward toward where the radar is currently showing the center of a nice mid-level rotation just west of Sarasota and southwest of St. Petersburg...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

well there really is no "center" per se but a center would probably form closer to where the convection is most persistant..

and did you try the trial version of the radar program ?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the surface low will probably try to shift southward toward where the radar is currently showing the center of a nice mid-level rotation just west of Sarasota and southwest of St. Petersburg...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

well there really is no "center" per se but a center would probably form closer to where the convection is most persistant..

and did you try the trial version of the radar program ?

No. I use a mac, so it won't work on my computer.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Sea Surface Temperature Off Tampa Bay/Florida
West Coast:
87 F
http://www.tampabays10.com/weather/fore ... al/marine/

93 F!!??? Mistake???
http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... orida.html


87 is a lot of heat content, and 93, well, let's just hope that's a typo.
The winds have picked up here, from nearly calm to now
gusty 10-20 mph range but bursts of winds come gusting
to 25 mph and there are thunderstorms around.

[Jason_B]

.LONG TERM...LATEST PROGGS FROM THE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEPICT A
THE BROAD LOW OVER THE NE GULF MOVING SLOWLY WNW NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY FRI. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERALLY A REFLECTION
OF A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF FROM MAIN MID TO UPPER TROF TO
THE NORTH. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE FL AL LINE BY FRI
MORNING RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST LATE FRI THROUGH
SUN. HAVE LOADED THE NEW MEX POPS FOR THE LATER PDS RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES LATE FRI THROUGH SUN. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO USE THE LATEST 00Z MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PDS. /32

[MiamiensisWx]

I believe this area should be closely monitored through the rest of the week. There is a broad surface trough that extends from the coastal waters off the Southeast to the FL peninsula and eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Since shear will be relatively low over the eastern GOM, I believe this region will be the place to watch for potential tropical cyclogenesis. Latest TAFB surface analysis around 18Z indicates a weak surface low has developed off the west coast of Florida because of 850 mb low level vorticity across the area. Weak divergence from a H5 shortwave trough to the north is providing good ventilation over the eastern GOM, and diffluence is excellent in the vicinity as well. Additionally, a tropical wave axis that is currently entering the central Caribbean Sea will eventually provide low level convergence as it enters the W Caribbean by the end of the week. Mid level dry air along the northern Gulf Coast will be an issue, but the synoptic set-up will be conducive. As a 850 mb low level ridge and a 500 mb upper level ridge is progged to build over the area, it is plausible that the surface low will slowly drift WSW over the next several days.

This one bears watching. This is a classical scenario for July development; see Erika 2003 as one example.

[lrak]

I'm just waiting for someone to type "thread locked see invest in active storms section."

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

Definite Spin Near Sarasota, heavy lightning at my location,
SW-South wind gusting to 30 mph easily- at my house along/near Tampa Bay
in Northeast Saint Petersburg.

[tpr1967]

Hi, Tampa Bay hurricane. I am just south of you in Bradenton. Clouds and scattered showers have increased. Keeping and eye on this area.

[Ivanhater]

NAM ( ) 60 HOURS...


Coming ashore near Pensacola 72 hours..



Are you still writing for the Pensacola News Journal Derek?

[ronjon]

Steve Lyons from the TWC just said at the 7:50 Tropical update that a tropical depression could form off the west coast of FL tomorrow - he was rather bullish about development if the low stayed offshore.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Convection is really bursting out there this evening! If the surface circulation can work itself under the deepest convection, then this thing should have no problem taking off.

[Jason_B]

Lyons is usually pretty conservative too, next 24 hrs or so will be interesting to see what comes of this.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Hello neighbor!
Yes this needs to be watched closely.
Sky looks very nasty outside to my east/northeast,
there is a calmer wind now- only about 5 mph from the
South.

[ronjon]

You know if this thing develops, I'll have to hand it to the Euro which predicted this about 72 hrs ago. The CMC showed development too if I remember.

[Jason_B]

Yeah nice convection bubbling up, let's see if that persists through the night. I would imagine the NHC would have a closer eye on this because it's close to home than something like 94L way out in the Atlantic, so maybe an invest pretty soon?