ATL: Dolly Model Runs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs
HURRICANELONNY wrote:Models are useless till a system forms. No use in even looking at them.
If 94L remains weak/shallow it will move W through the Caribbean just as the models depict. If 94L develops then it will likely move WNW to NW into the NE Caribbean. Hard to get a good idea until we know where the LLC is and we don't know if one exists.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs
274
WHXX01 KWBC 150040
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC TUE JUL 15 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080715 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080715 0000 080715 1200 080716 0000 080716 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 44.6W 12.7N 47.9W 13.2N 51.5W 13.9N 55.9W
BAMD 11.8N 44.6W 12.4N 46.9W 12.8N 49.0W 12.9N 51.0W
BAMM 11.8N 44.6W 12.5N 47.4W 13.2N 50.3W 13.6N 53.2W
LBAR 11.8N 44.6W 12.2N 47.2W 12.7N 49.8W 13.1N 52.6W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080717 0000 080718 0000 080719 0000 080720 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 60.3W 17.2N 68.4W 19.1N 77.4W 21.2N 85.8W
BAMD 12.9N 53.1W 13.1N 58.3W 14.1N 64.0W 15.0N 69.7W
BAMM 13.8N 56.3W 14.4N 62.8W 15.3N 70.1W 16.5N 77.7W
LBAR 13.6N 55.8W 14.8N 62.6W 15.5N 70.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 40KTS 51KTS 59KTS 65KTS
DSHP 40KTS 51KTS 59KTS 65KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 44.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 42.0W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 39.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$

WHXX01 KWBC 150040
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC TUE JUL 15 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080715 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080715 0000 080715 1200 080716 0000 080716 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 44.6W 12.7N 47.9W 13.2N 51.5W 13.9N 55.9W
BAMD 11.8N 44.6W 12.4N 46.9W 12.8N 49.0W 12.9N 51.0W
BAMM 11.8N 44.6W 12.5N 47.4W 13.2N 50.3W 13.6N 53.2W
LBAR 11.8N 44.6W 12.2N 47.2W 12.7N 49.8W 13.1N 52.6W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080717 0000 080718 0000 080719 0000 080720 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 60.3W 17.2N 68.4W 19.1N 77.4W 21.2N 85.8W
BAMD 12.9N 53.1W 13.1N 58.3W 14.1N 64.0W 15.0N 69.7W
BAMM 13.8N 56.3W 14.4N 62.8W 15.3N 70.1W 16.5N 77.7W
LBAR 13.6N 55.8W 14.8N 62.6W 15.5N 70.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 40KTS 51KTS 59KTS 65KTS
DSHP 40KTS 51KTS 59KTS 65KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 44.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 42.0W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 39.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs
Dean was a storm to remember. Are the environmental conditions anywhere close to it?
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs
Shear forecasted to be an impediment in the next 24 to 72 hours.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL942008 07/15/08 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 33 34 36 36 39 43 48 51
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 33 34 36 36 39 43 48 51
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 26 25 24 25 27 30
SHEAR (KTS) 13 15 16 21 26 22 32 21 27 11 16 15 20
SHEAR DIR 297 312 295 308 317 325 336 353 9 350 338 275 294
SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 126 129 131 135 137 140 140 140 142 139 143 147 149
ADJ. POT. INT. 126 130 133 137 139 141 141 140 143 139 143 145 145
200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -55.2 -54.8 -55.0 -54.6 -55.1
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 10 9 11 10
700-500 MB RH 65 62 61 62 59 54 56 55 57 51 53 52 54
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 14 18 13 11 16 21 28 25 14 16 9
200 MB DIV -2 -4 -5 8 -8 -5 10 15 5 -9 -2 4 34
LAND (KM) 961 909 867 849 777 506 336 366 385 326 223 84 53
LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.3 15.1 16.1 17.1 18.1
LONG(DEG W) 48.0 49.6 51.2 52.8 54.4 57.4 60.6 63.5 66.7 69.8 73.0 75.9 78.8
STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 16 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 15 14
HEAT CONTENT 26 27 37 49 55 62 62 55 63 55 71 77 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -12. -17. -19. -20. -19. -19.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 16. 20. 25. 29.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 14. 18. 23. 26.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/15/08 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/15/08 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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- HURAKAN
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666
WHXX04 KWBC 151727
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L
INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 15
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 12.2 48.1 280./14.9
STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
WHXX04 KWBC 151727
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L
INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 15
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 12.2 48.1 280./14.9
STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
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- HURAKAN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1822 UTC TUE JUL 15 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080715 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080715 1800 080716 0600 080716 1800 080717 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 50.1W 13.6N 53.9W 14.5N 57.9W 15.2N 61.5W
BAMD 13.0N 50.1W 13.3N 52.4W 13.5N 54.5W 13.5N 56.7W
BAMM 13.0N 50.1W 13.6N 53.1W 14.1N 56.0W 14.5N 58.6W
LBAR 13.0N 50.1W 13.4N 53.1W 14.0N 56.6W 14.5N 60.2W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080717 1800 080718 1800 080719 1800 080720 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 64.8W 17.0N 71.3W 18.7N 77.9W 20.7N 84.4W
BAMD 13.6N 58.9W 14.4N 63.8W 15.6N 68.8W 17.2N 73.4W
BAMM 14.8N 61.3W 16.1N 66.7W 18.1N 72.0W 20.4N 76.8W
LBAR 15.1N 63.9W 16.1N 70.9W 15.4N 76.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 36KTS 37KTS 41KTS 47KTS
DSHP 36KTS 37KTS 40KTS 35KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 50.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 46.6W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 43.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1822 UTC TUE JUL 15 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080715 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080715 1800 080716 0600 080716 1800 080717 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 50.1W 13.6N 53.9W 14.5N 57.9W 15.2N 61.5W
BAMD 13.0N 50.1W 13.3N 52.4W 13.5N 54.5W 13.5N 56.7W
BAMM 13.0N 50.1W 13.6N 53.1W 14.1N 56.0W 14.5N 58.6W
LBAR 13.0N 50.1W 13.4N 53.1W 14.0N 56.6W 14.5N 60.2W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080717 1800 080718 1800 080719 1800 080720 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 64.8W 17.0N 71.3W 18.7N 77.9W 20.7N 84.4W
BAMD 13.6N 58.9W 14.4N 63.8W 15.6N 68.8W 17.2N 73.4W
BAMM 14.8N 61.3W 16.1N 66.7W 18.1N 72.0W 20.4N 76.8W
LBAR 15.1N 63.9W 16.1N 70.9W 15.4N 76.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 36KTS 37KTS 41KTS 47KTS
DSHP 36KTS 37KTS 40KTS 35KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 50.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 46.6W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 43.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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That estimate is very interesting Hurakan because it does place the center close to a new burst of convection.
anyway despite the SHIP intensity forecasts showing high shear they still have this reaching tropical storm strength in 48hrs. We will see personally I think the GFDL option is more likely but who knows we will see!
anyway despite the SHIP intensity forecasts showing high shear they still have this reaching tropical storm strength in 48hrs. We will see personally I think the GFDL option is more likely but who knows we will see!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs
From personal observation, when SHIPS shows only minor strengthening and GFDL loses system in first 6 or 12 hours, a disturbance is probably not going to develop anytime soon.
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- HURAKAN
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Shear forecast is impressive.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL942008 07/15/08 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 36 38 37 37 41 44 47
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 36 38 37 37 40 42 35
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 25 24 24 25 25
SHEAR (KTS) 12 15 22 26 25 21 25 27 29 27 25 30 22
SHEAR DIR 300 285 295 309 317 322 342 339 346 330 295 288 276
SST (C) 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 129 132 135 137 138 139 139 139 140 141 145 150 151
ADJ. POT. INT. 130 133 135 137 137 138 137 137 138 137 141 143 142
200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10
700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 61 58 57 55 52 48 49 49 52 57
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 14 13 19 15 10 5 16 26 12 20 13 -2 -26
200 MB DIV -11 -6 10 5 11 -13 13 0 14 5 20 14 8
LAND (KM) 916 884 883 777 654 486 445 367 200 142 4 75 -32
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.3 16.1 17.0 18.1 19.3 20.4
LONG(DEG W) 50.1 51.6 53.1 54.6 56.0 58.6 61.3 63.9 66.7 69.4 72.0 74.5 76.8
STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 14 13 13 13 13 14 13 14 13 11
HEAT CONTENT 30 40 51 56 60 61 57 59 75 61 70 78 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -11. -16. -21. -23. -24. -24.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 13. 13. 14. 18. 22. 24.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 12. 12. 16. 19. 22.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/15/08 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/15/08 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs
Does anyone know what the TVCN model is on the SFWMD model plot page?
https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169354:3194_21260388:3194_21260861&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169354:3194_21260388:3194_21260861&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
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- wzrgirl1
- S2K Supporter
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs
it is a consensus model and replaces the old CONU model I believe
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L Model Runs
FWIW...12z CMC still develops 94L..keeps it running west through the Caribbean..UKMET even tries to close it off in the Central Caribbean...we will see...
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- Blown Away
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- Extremeweatherguy
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