TC Bertha

[HURAKAN]

[DESTRUCTION5]

That looks like a placenta...

[wxman57]

Its interesting ekal, it clearly can't be right given the current strcutrue it has, can't see why it has only 2.7 when there is a clear eye sutrcture with Bertha...

That's a giant open center where the eye used to be. Bertha is finally on the way out tonight. Convection is dropping off and it appears to be starting the transition to ET.

[ekal]

That's a giant open center where the eye used to be. Bertha is finally on the way out tonight. Convection is dropping off and it appears to be starting the transition to ET.

This phase-diagram shows that Bertha still has a symmetric warm-core. Would that suggest ET has not yet begun?

Agree about the lack of inner-core, though.

[brunota2003]

That chart's track looks about as crazy as the track of Bertha herself o.o

[cpdaman]

bertha appears to have slowed a bit and prepared to start moving SE soon.

she has been taking it on the chin from increasing NE shear from deep trough to the east (moving SW) and this was forecast to cause her to dip SE (as we all know) now just watching to make sure here movement goes as planned

[Epsilon_Fan]

Wow, this is a wierd storm. Kind of like an annular, squished donut right now I don't know how much longer this "July Epsilon" can hold out!

[brunota2003]

Well, looking at Bertha's IR imagery, definitely a major collapse of the core of the storm. No longer is there a clear spot, but more like disorganized "blobs". Looks like my room before my mom tells me to clean it!

Someone can grab a Sat shot for saving purposes, I just wanna go to bed. Night all!

[Chacor]

WTNT42 KNHC 160853
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

BERTHA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERLY FLOW
ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN BERTHA'S CLOUD PATTERN BECOMING INCREASINGLY
STRETCHED IN A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ORIENTATION. HOWEVER...THE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 55 KT. BERTHA IS BEGINNING
AN ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER PROGRESSIVELY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT 2
DAYS. SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE
ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR BEYOND 72
HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS BERTHA REMAINING JUST SHY OF HURRICANE
STRENGTH.

BERTHA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 100/05. A SOUTHEAST TURN IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS AS
THE CYCLONE CYCLONICALLY ROTATES AROUND A LARGE UPPER-LOW TO ITS
EAST. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 2 DAYS OF
THE FORECAST BUT THEN DIVERGES AT DAYS 3-5. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
SPANS NEARLY 1400 MILES AT DAY 5 AND IS BOUNDED BY THE NOGAPS
MODEL...WHICH RACES THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE GFS
MODEL...WHICH SHOWS A MUCH SLOWER EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE
HWRF...GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS LIE IN BETWEEN THESE OUTLIER
SOLUTIONS AND ARE THE BASIS FOR THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT AND SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED SHOWN IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 36.4N 61.0W 55 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 36.1N 60.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 35.0N 60.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 34.1N 58.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 34.0N 56.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 36.5N 52.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 40.0N 47.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 43.5N 41.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[cpdaman]

bertha drifting east at 3mph although i doubt her intensity is still 70mph

looks like her core fell apart

[CrazyC83]

Now up to 60 kt in the discussion per a Quikscat pass. May have been a hurricane earlier?

[Cyclone1]

Second longest lived hurricane on record?

umm.. no?

[DESTRUCTION5]

bertha drifting east at 3mph although i doubt her intensity is still 70mph

looks like her core fell apart

Yea if there was a scale for hurricane age id say she is gettign in her upper 90's....

[KWT]

Yeah Bertha doesn't look nearly as good now starting to lsoe the good structure it has hheld for the last few days. It does look like its on a weakening phase.

[cycloneye]

Still at 60kts according to ATCF best track:

AL, 02, 2008071618, , BEST, 0, 364N, 607W, 60, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 70, 90, 50, 50,

[Brent]

I hope she is FINALLY on her way out.

[CrazyC83]

16/1745 UTC 36.3N 60.7W T3.0/3.5 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean

Weakening again it seems.

[cpdaman]

looks to me like she is being Eaten alive by the deep low to her east. As it trys to make her his dinner she now is moving a bit faster SE or sse

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

been waiting to see what happens with this interaction

[KWT]

Yep does look like Bertha is steadily weakening at this time, I highly doubt its at 60kts now to be honest!

[Stormavoider]

looks to me like she is being Eaten alive by the deep low to her east. As it trys to make her his dinner she now is moving a bit faster SE or sse

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

been waiting to see what happens with this interaction

It's really a sight to see. With all the other activity, it's not drawing much discussion.