ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Ed Mahmoud]

The "past two hours" at Trinidad are part of the afternoon; don't forget that Trinidad is several hours ahead of EDT.

If they are AST like much of the Caribbean they are on the same time as EDT. They are an hour ahead of the Eastern Seaboard of the US in Winter during standard time.


But I checked, and T&T reported a similar West wind about this time yesterday.

[wxman57]

Interesting that the reconn coming into the sytem is finding 38kt winds at flight level more than 150 miles to the NW of the cyclonic center.

That's what I've been pointing out. Check the 850mb (5000ft) winds across the Caribbean in advance of 94L. They're up to 40 kts out of the east. That's not from any circulation around 94L, it's the general wind field 94L is moving into.

Barbados sounding from 12z only showed 20knot winds at H85, the higher winds were at H70, up to 50 kts.

Barbados isn't in the Caribbean. I'm talking about west of the islands, west of 65W.

[Thunder44]

2pm TWO:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THIS AREA TO DETERMINE IF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH...BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

[KWT]

I guess though wxman57 that the less northerly movement there is with the whole complex the less the shear will be?
Got to admit though the shear does seem to be pretty high in the Caribbean as you'd expect at this time of year really.

[NDG]

Crown Point now reporting NW winds, before somebody says its a sea breeze, it is very rare for them to see sea breeze out of the NW, when they usually have easterly winds this time of the year.
Wind from the NW (310 degrees) at 7 MPH (6 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 84 F (29 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 70%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.94 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob TTCP 161700Z 31006KT 9999 FEW012CB BKN280

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I hate these borderline system. I mean it really really makes me turn red when a system has 90 percent closed LLC. I say go for depression!

If not I'm just going to turn the computer off in walk away.

[HURAKAN]

In 2006 TD #5 (Ernesto) was upgraded with a NW wind measurement. From what I read in the discussion of the RECON they have already found that. Lets see what the NHC thinks about it.

[Derek Ortt]

SFMR has found TS surface winds

However, I do not see a closed surface circulation. This is most certainly a wave with TS winds

[KWT]

Its really close Hurakan, I think the NHC will at least wait to try and see what the next pass finds, if they don't find a west wind they may not upgrade as Qscat also didn't show a LLC either.

[RL3AO]

SFMR has found TS surface winds

However, I do not see a closed surface circulation. This is most certainly a wave with TS winds

Do you think the NHC might pull the trigger if they find winds say of 240 and 300? Just because of land proximity.

[Noles2006]

In 2006 TD #5 (Ernesto) was upgraded with a NW wind measurement. From what I read in the discussion of the RECON they have already found that. Lets see what the NHC thinks about it.

Here's one difference: Ernesto was expected to continue to develop... and they figured it would close off at any minute...

With 94L, this is about as good as it's going to get...

[HURAKAN]

Do we have a recent QuikSCAT?Because the last one I saw was about 8 hours ago.

[KWT]

Indeed Derek and so really the effects are going to just the same for the islands anyway the only difference is a closed LLC means a name whilst an open wave doesn't get a name, thats all this recon will really solve.

[NDG]

That's what I've been pointing out. Check the 850mb (5000ft) winds across the Caribbean in advance of 94L. They're up to 40 kts out of the east. That's not from any circulation around 94L, it's the general wind field 94L is moving into.

Barbados sounding from 12z only showed 20knot winds at H85, the higher winds were at H70, up to 50 kts.

Barbados isn't in the Caribbean. I'm talking about west of the islands, west of 65W.

When the recon found those winds they were just NW of Barbados, they were not anywhere near 65W, so those winds had to be part of the circulation.

[HURAKAN]

In 2006 TD #5 (Ernesto) was upgraded with a NW wind measurement. From what I read in the discussion of the RECON they have already found that. Lets see what the NHC thinks about it.

Here's one difference: Ernesto was expected to continue to develop... and they figured it would close off at any minute...

With 94L, this is about as good as it's going to get...

Sorry but I danced to that tune yesterday and today, surprise, surprise. This could be another Chantal, never got fully its act togetther and was always a runner.

[Derek Ortt]

SFMR has found TS surface winds

However, I do not see a closed surface circulation. This is most certainly a wave with TS winds

Do you think the NHC might pull the trigger if they find winds say of 240 and 300? Just because of land proximity.

Call me old fashioned, but I like to see a VDM before making an upgrade

[wxman57]

Here's a surface map with a satellite overlay from my workstation. Note the WSW sea breeze in Trinidad. There are outflow boundaries west of Barbados from the collapse of thunderstorms near the wave axis in the past few hours. I can't find any LLC in the obs or on satellite, but I don't doubt that there's an area of light/variable winds along the wave axis south of 12N.

[KWT]

Well a SSW wind has been found as well but thats not close enough to the westerly vector we need to upgrade. Its close though either way its got a nearly closed off circulation.

[NDG]

Coming in from the NW quadrant of the storm through the center (which they found NW winds on the NW quadrant and a pressure of 1009mb) into the SE quadrant they will not find a westerly wind they have to investigate now the SW quadrant.

[Extremeweatherguy]

1-knot west wind found.