ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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MiamiensisWx

#1961 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:34 pm

It's unfortunate that many of the well informed amateurs and meteorology students can gain poor standings and reputations here because of scandalous, audacious trolls.

In regards to changing views, it is essential in the field of meteorology to alter forecasts if deemed necessary; small changes in the thermodynamic and synoptic environment lead to future adjustments.
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#1962 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:35 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Eastern Caribbean

#1963 Postby Innotech » Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:37 pm

its looking a fair bit more organized at this hour, passing over the islands. If you see red, this storm sure's hell aint dead.
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#1964 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:37 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED A SHORT DISTANCE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BARBADOS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY COMPLETED ITS MISSION
IN THE DISTURBANCE...AND FOUND A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT NO
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS
EARLIER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TONIGHT
OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
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Re:

#1965 Postby Innotech » Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:38 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:It's unfortunate that many of the well informed amateurs and meteorology students can gain poor standings and reputations here because of scandalous, audacious trolls.

In regards to changing views, it is essential in the field of meteorology to alter forecasts if deemed necessary; small changes in the thermodynamic and synoptic environment lead to future adjustments.

basically, they make educated guesses. Which is what anyone with a bit of knowledge about any of this will tend to make. and thats just human. there is nothing wrong with making an educated guess. Scientists are really great at it.
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Re:

#1966 Postby zaqxsw75050 » Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:39 pm

HURAKAN wrote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED A SHORT DISTANCE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BARBADOS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY COMPLETED ITS MISSION
IN THE DISTURBANCE...AND FOUND A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT NO
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS
EARLIER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
...AND
THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TONIGHT
OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20-25 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


I thought the shear is suppose to be unfavorable? or it just barely escape the worst of the shear?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Eastern Caribbean

#1967 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:41 pm

I just looked at the Loop and Shear seems to be decreasing at the Moment. It's Amazing how Shear can all of sudden drop off without warning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html
Last edited by HouTXmetro on Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Eastern Caribbean

#1968 Postby Innotech » Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:41 pm

I think the low pressure system west of it is making way for invest 94L. Not directly but perhaps as a result of it being there.
thats all I can think of anyway. It looks remarkably clear just ahead of the invest.
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#1969 Postby funster » Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:50 pm

The NHC must see light shear ahead. We could also just keep watching this disturbance and nothing ever happens because it just mid-July. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Eastern Caribbean

#1970 Postby Innotech » Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:51 pm

well, Bertha is a fish and weakening and the Pacific storms arent that great either. theres not much to watch right now.
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#1971 Postby jaxfladude » Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:53 pm

The storms will be back in force in a few weeks(4-6)..... enjoy the the calm....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Eastern Caribbean

#1972 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:53 pm

Upper-level shear looks more favorable in the Eastern Carribean, according to CIMSS:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

There is big upper-level ridge over the Central Carribean.
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Re: Re:

#1973 Postby Cryomaniac » Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:54 pm

Innotech wrote:
MiamiensisWx wrote:It's unfortunate that many of the well informed amateurs and meteorology students can gain poor standings and reputations here because of scandalous, audacious trolls.

In regards to changing views, it is essential in the field of meteorology to alter forecasts if deemed necessary; small changes in the thermodynamic and synoptic environment lead to future adjustments.

basically, they make educated guesses. Which is what anyone with a bit of knowledge about any of this will tend to make. and thats just human. there is nothing wrong with making an educated guess. Scientists are really great at it.


Well exactly, most science in general, and meteorology especially, are at best educated guesses.
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Re:

#1974 Postby Innotech » Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:55 pm

jaxfladude wrote:The storms will be back in force in a few weeks(4-6)..... enjoy the the calm....

I wouldnt call the tropics right now "calm". Very disorganized, but certainly not calm.
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Re: Re:

#1975 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:57 pm

Innotech wrote:
jaxfladude wrote:The storms will be back in force in a few weeks(4-6)..... enjoy the the calm....

I wouldnt call the tropics right now "calm". Very disorganized, but certainly not calm.


In the NHC area of concern there is a hurricane, 2 tropical storms, an invest and two other areas of interest.
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#1976 Postby mattpetre » Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:57 pm

I still believe 94L will be a threat to someone, albeit a minor threat.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Eastern Caribbean

#1977 Postby zaqxsw75050 » Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:59 pm

THE TROPICS ARE VERY BUSY FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY.


from NHC's TWO from early this afternoon.
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#1978 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 16, 2008 7:02 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT WITH A
1009 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N. THIS WAVE WAS
INVESTIGATED BY AND FOUND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BUT NO
WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER CONDITIONS IN THE E
CARIBBEAN ARE CONDUCTIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN
59W-62W WITH SCATTERED/LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 55W-64W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Eastern Caribbean

#1979 Postby funster » Wed Jul 16, 2008 7:04 pm

zaqxsw75050 wrote:
THE TROPICS ARE VERY BUSY FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY.


from NHC's TWO from early this afternoon.


Wow! It sounds like they are worried about some development from one of these disturbances. It could be another very busy year.
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#1980 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 16, 2008 7:26 pm

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