H Dolly Recon Discussion Thread

[brunota2003]

There's 10 minutes missing? o.o Ahhh...conspiracy! They're trying to cover the LLC up!

j/k Hopefully it is retransmitted.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I see the plane was between 57 and 58ºW. I wish they'd hunt for a center just a shade further East, maybe near 13ºN and 57ºW.

That said, this looks less organized now than a couple of hours ago.

[MGC]

Even if there is no upgrade in the short term, 94L will pass through the islands tonight and if a closed circulation at the surface is present it will be observed on one of the islands....MGC

[Thunder44]

Even if there is no upgrade in the short term, 94L will pass through the islands tonight and if a closed circulation at the surface is present it will be observed on one of the islands....MGC

Surface obs over the islands already indicate that there is a closed surface circulation. It's organization that is the problem.

[KWT]

Yeah we've had quite a few west wind reports, as Thunder says its just needs a little more organisation.

[Cyclone1]

My vote goes for eleven tonight.

[Thunder44]

From the last set of miniobs, it looks they just flew through the center, from NE to SW. They may be able to fix a center now.

[KWT]

Yep I think if this system has got a closed LLC its going to be in that little area that recon just went through as we had quite a large range of wind directionsin that last set...now we really may find out if this has a closed circulation or not.

[HURAKAN]

I think we need another DMAX.

[Innotech]

if this storm manages to close off a llc despite the strong shear, it should be monitored extremely carefully.
given the right slacking conditions, this would likely blow up rapidly. Would be fun to watch for sure.

[senorpepr]

FLIGHT TWO...TEAL 71
A. 17/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 02AAA CYCLONE
C. 17/0400Z
D. 14.0N 60.0W
E. 17/0500Z TO 17/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


Scheduled take off would be 12am EDT tonight.

[RL3AO]

And I was thinking we would have to wait until tomorrow afternoon again.

[KWT]

Oh yeah of course I forgot about that they are doing flights more frequantly as this is closer to the base, well that will be timed just right for the Dmax so thats going to be a vital recon mission I feel just before the shear really ramps up in the Caribbean.

[senorpepr]

Here's what mission one looked like...

[canegrl04]

This thing is starting to scare me.The longer it holds on,the greater the chance of hit hitting a sweet spot for development.We could have a TS or hurricane Cristobal by early next week

[Thunder44]

FLIGHT TWO...TEAL 71
A. 17/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 02AAA CYCLONE
C. 17/0400Z
D. 14.0N 60.0W
E. 17/0500Z TO 17/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


Scheduled take off would be 12am EDT tonight.

I think that mission was scheduled in case it was upgraded. The new TWO only mentioned a flight for tomorrow afternoon.

[senorpepr]

I see that. Well... Mission Two:

SUSPECT AREA...(CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE...TEAL 70
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 03AAA CYCLONE
C. 17/1600Z
D. 13.0N 66.4W
E. 17/1700Z TO 16/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Scheduled take off time is 17/12pm EDT

[HURAKAN]

It will be interesting to see if the NHC decides to send an airplane to investigate 94L. There seems to be a LLC but maybe the organization is not enought. Lets see.

[Thunder44]

They didn't mention the flight in the 8am TWO today. So they may have decided to cancel it already.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If I were king of the world I'd have the WC-130J fly a couple of passes through the Western Caribbean system on the way back to Keesler, if fuel would permit...


Of course, that, while looking much better, will hit Honduras and Nicaragua tomorrow before it can get too strong, wind wise. The rain, I'm sure, will be a serious issue.