SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[jasons2k]

And so it all fizzles, just as it approaches the house......what else is new.......

[Johnny]

We got about an inch here at the house but back near Conroe Regional Hospital, all heck was breaking loose with hail and high winds. I sure am grateful for the rain though. It'll give me a few days break before I have to break out the hoses again.

[Ed Mahmoud]

And so it all fizzles, just as it approaches the house......what else is new.......

ditto...

[Yankeegirl]

Here too.... bummer... it is dark outside though....

[jasons2k]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1247 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE MY BE BIT BY THE LAWS MURPHY PUTS
FORTH...AFTER REVIEWING CURRENT LATE AM RADAR/SAT TRENDS...HAVE
DOWNPLAYED THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL REACHES OF THE FA. NEAR N-S BOUNDARY OVER
WESTERN LA PUTTING DOWN AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER SW
PARISHES SINCE MIDNIGHT...THIS MAY BE ROBBING REGION OF THE BASIC
INGREDIENTS NEEDED TO POP-UP ANY SIG MID-LATE PM TSRA. THE SEA
BREEZE WAS A NON-FACTOR YESTERDAY...EVEN WITH BOUNDARIES PRIME
TIME LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY COLLISION OVER THE GREATER HOUSTON
AREA. SCT CONVECTION ACROSS SAME NORTHERN COUNTIES AS WAS THE CASE
24 HRS AGO...BUT LL FOCUS HAS SINCE RE-SHIFTED FURTHER E-SE. STORM
CLUSTERING OFF OF COASTAL CHAMBERS COUNTY MAY WORK ITS WAY A BIT
CLOSER TO KGLS...BUT WITH THE BREEZE KICKING IN A FEW HOURS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THAT SCHOLES WILL EXPERIENCE ANY MORE THAN VCTS/SH. NO
INDICATION ON ANY SIG SFC BOUNDARIES AS WIND FIELD IS BASICALLY
CALM AT 18Z. 12Z SOUNDINGS OFFER LITTLE HELP WITH LCH`S LAUNCH IN
RAIN AND CRP MUCH DRIER THAN SATELLITE DERIVED NUMBERS. THUS...FEEL
THAT VICINITY THUNDER/CBS THE WAY TO GO THROUGH TODAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR PULSE DEVELOPMENT. POST-12Z WED CU DECK LOOKS TO BE AT VFR
HEIGHT UNDER A HIGH CANOPY.

Looking at the radar it looks like "murphy's Law" may win out. The seabreeze is becoming active and we have some new development off to the NW. We'll see how the afternoon plays-out.

[jasons2k]

Seabreeze front is racing across Metro Houston at this time. Not much of a window left for storms to pop but if they do, now would be the time. It'll be interesting to watch over the next 30min - 1 hour....

[Yankeegirl]

it looks like it wants to rain here... but it wont... i cant wait till winter...

[jasons2k]

Here it's wash, rinse, spin, repeat...dry as a bone

[CajunMama]

Whew! It'a a warm one out there today. It's 93 with a hi of 95. It's so hot the wasps aren't even out flying around.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Some thunder at the Galleria. No rain, however. Watered back yard yesterday after work, today will water front yard.

[srainhoutx]

Yep. Back to sprinkler watering along with the irragation system running at night. We need some rain for a couple of days.

[PTrackerLA]

Large thunderstorm developed JUST south of me, have had nearly constant thunder for the last 40 minutes or so and only about 5 drops of rain. We could have really used that soaking too as radar is showing 2"+ falling just a few miles away. So goes the summer weather around here...

[CajunMama]

Yeah that rain missed me too. It didn't even drop enough to wet the cement.

[Ptarmigan]

I WANT RAIN!
I WANT RAIN!
I WANT RAIN!
I WANT RAIN!
I WANT RAIN!
I WANT RAIN!
I WANT RAIN!
I WANT RAIN!
I WANT RAIN!
I WANT RAIN!
Why am I throwing a tantrum?????

[vbhoutex]

We actually got a pretty good shower in the Spring Branch area this afternoon. I was surprised driving home from work and finding the pavement in our area wet. Way too hot for my liking the last few days. And of course I watered yesterday!!

[Yankeegirl]

well i hope we get some rain outta the blob in the gulf/carrib. area.... we need it!! has anyone seen the GFDL? what exactly is that again? is that the computer model or the historical model? i cant remember, its been since last year, i have to refresh my terms again...

[jasons2k]

Form Jeff L:

Hurricane Watch is issued for the TX coast from Port O Connor to Brownsville.

Tropical storm watch is issued from the west end of Galveston Island to Port O Connor.

TXDOT has changed highway DMS signs to fuel your gas tanks and fuel consumption in the Houston/Galveston area has surged in the last 12 hours.

Track:

Track guidance has shifted northward on the 06Z and 12Z runs of the GFDL and tropicals. The 1000am NHC advisory has also shifted northward and now shows a landfall across south TX between KBRO and KCRP. It should be noted that the extension of the hurricane watch and tropical storm watch northward are due to the large storm size and potential forecast track error. Dolly will slow greatly in the western Gulf as high pressure over TX weakens.

Intensity:

Recon. reported 56kts in the NE quad. and Dolly is looking very impressive on satellite images. In fact aircraft radar is showing decent banding around the center. All factors appear satisfied for rapid deepening and the NHC and local NWS offices are making it very clear the current forecast for a high end cat 1 may be on the low end. Will have to see how long it takes the inner core to form…but it looks very well organized on sat images.

Impacts:

Per NHC TS wind probability tables indicates a 30-40% chance of TS force winds across Galveston and 40-50% chance of TS force winds across Matagorda Bay with hurricane force conditions south of that. With this in mind and the current TS watch outline area. Will bring TS force winds into the Matagorda Bay area Wednesday afternoon in gusts in squalls and build to sustained 35kts by Wednesday overnight as the hurricane moves toward the coast.

Long period swells of 6-8 feet are already being generated and expect seas to build 16-18 feet offshore and 8-12 feet near shore with coastal flooding onsetting with higher swells. Right now coastal flood problems look greatest from Palacios southward and then High Island eastward where Ekman transport will come into play. Current forecast are for tides to run 1-2’ above normal. Just run SLOSH of high end cat 1 impact on NHC forecast brings 6 foot surge north of the center across the lower TX coast and toward the KCRP area.

Rainfall of 5-10 inches will be common along and to the right of where the center crosses the coast with isolated amounts of 15”. Slow storm motion points to some hefty tropical totals. SW part of area around Matagorda Bay can expect 2-4 inches widespread with isolated amounts to 8” where feeder bands train. Across the rest of the area 1-3” is possible.

NOTE: additional track changes will require significant impact changes.

Preparation Actions:

State SOC is fully operational

HCOEM is activating to Level II at noon today.

Fuel supply teams are moving fuel to the coastal areas in response to TXDOT DMS signage being changed.

Evacuation of barrier islands along the S TX coast is expected to be ordered this afternoon in phase with a predicted landfall of a category 2 hurricane.

At this time, since this is not forecast to be a cat 3, no large scale mass evacuations are going to be ordered, there is really not enough time anyhow.

Residents in the Hurricane Watch area should begin preparations for the impact of a category 2 hurricane within the next 36 hours.

Residents in the TS Watch area should prepare for the impact of TS conditions within the next 36 hours.

[CajunMama]

We here in south louisiana just can't seem to get a rain shower from dolly. Any moisture is dissapating. That ridge needs to move further east.

[Yankeegirl]

we havent gotten any rain here today either... i do have to say, the winds have picked up a littl... it looks like there is a nice blob of rain just off the coast heading this way... prolly fizzle out before it gets this far west...

[vbhoutex]

Well so far today we have had about an inch of rain and wind gusts to 35 mph during one of the rainbands passage. Of course the lightning and thunder woke me up this am.