ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[curtadams]

94L certainly appears to have a large low-level circulation created by barotropic processes, so by some definitions it *is* a TD. It's not by NHC definitions, but it's fairly close and a sustained burst of convection near the center would push it over the edge. Besides, cyclogenesis isn't too well understood and extra info is always useful.

[Sanibel]

The arrow point shape is back meaning 94L is STILL pushing into a trough that has ridden along with it inhibiting it all the way. However we have a good red burst. I might be missreading this but I think it is pulling up. If it does this we'll be talking some potential serious changes.

Look at the convection depth to 95L over in the western Caribbean and think what 94L will do if it can get into that area...

[boca]

I think I smell a troll.

[HURAKAN]

If you were asking, why did they send the RECON?

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
220 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

THE SECOND WAVE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W/66W ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N65W. BUOY 42059 RECENTLY REPORTED
NE WINDS OF 20KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS INDICATED NE WINDS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN HOWEVER
SOME OF THIS MAY BE RAIN CONTAMINATED. ONCE AGAIN
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SLATED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE FEATURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE WILL REACH 80W BY EARLY SAT THEN MOVE INTO
NICARAGUA BY LATE SAT.

[Praxus]

GFDL sure likes it

[category5]

large convective burst with deep reds occuring now...at a time of day it should be diminishing; interesting.

[Sanibel]

I certainly wouldn't be pushing for wave with all these signs showing.


GFDL takes it to 75Kts in the GOM.

[HURAKAN]

[HouTXmetro]

Just keeps on teasing us! I'm wondering is this new burst of convection the real deal?

[Stratosphere747]

17/1745 UTC 12.9N 66.1W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

[HouTXmetro]

17/1745 UTC 12.9N 66.1W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

Thanks for that dose of Reality. What does TOO WEAK mean?

[Brent]

17/1745 UTC 12.9N 66.1W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

Not even close to being a TD. Though recon obs CAN overrule that.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html
4 little systems spinning in the sea. Man it looks like August to me!
94L sure is a fighter. Conditions still look only marginally favorable for it though.

[cheezyWXguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html
4 little systems spinning in the sea. Man it looks like August to me!
94L sure is a fighter. Conditions still look only marginally favorable for it though.

The only difference between july and august is that all these systems would be developed right now...which im beginning to worry about because with all these disturbances out there now...august could be pretty bad.
Btw, thats quite a northward shift in the GFDL, and quite a shift in strength...if it follows the track the gfdl currently shows, us in Texas may have to worry about it.

[category5]

17/1745 UTC 12.9N 66.1W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

Not even close to being a TD. Though recon obs CAN overrule that.

you do not use sat estimates when you have recon data coming in live. Dvorak uses an algorithm to estimate intensity. Recon observes actual data.

[weatherguru18]

Yes, but aren't we in the upswing of MJO? That would be the reason for all the disturbances. Things should calm down a bit once the cycle is over. MJO is not my area of experteece fyi, but something that may be enhancing the waves.

[txag2005]

I do not understand the models at all. What sort of intensity is expected if this storm actually develops and hits the Cancun/Rivera Maya area in Mexico? Is it expected to be a Tropical Storm, Cat 1-2 Hurricane or a major hurricane? I just want to be prepared for what to expect if something forms up after I leave for Mexico tomorrow.

What intensity predictions are the models showing, as most have it hitting Mexico?

[Wx_Warrior]

the best opinion i can give you is-IT'S WAY TOO EARLY!



You will learn that everyone on board has their own opinion and believe they have the right call. Just be patient, my friend.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

the positive MJO cycle we are currently in will be gone by the last week of July. It will be back with us sometime around mid August to the first part of September.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html
4 little systems spinning in the sea. Man it looks like August to me!
94L sure is a fighter. Conditions still look only marginally favorable for it though.

The only difference between july and august is that all these systems would be developed right now...which im beginning to worry about because with all these disturbances out there now...august could be pretty bad.
Btw, thats quite a northward shift in the GFDL, and quite a shift in strength...if it follows the track the gfdl currently shows, us in Texas may have to worry about it.

As long as it's a weak TS that brings a hellish amount of rain. 94L is most welcome here.