ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[KWT]

Thats true ivanhunter, the main reason why I think it will be further south then they prog is that it won't develop as quickly as they expect IMO. If it does form I think the orange line in the model guidence may be closest but who knows!

[cheezyWXguy]

Thats true ivanhunter, the main reason why I think it will be further south then they prog is that it won't develop as quickly as they expect IMO. If it does form I think the orange line in the model guidence may be closest but who knows!

Well if shear really gets down to 1kt in 5 days, I think that development would be rather likely and a northward turn would be possible...but this has just been one model run and things could change.

[KWT]

Problem is by the time it has entered the lower shear the GFDL is way up close to the Cuban coast, IMO that part of the track isn't at all likely. Who knows about the restof it too far out to really say to be honest!

[wxman57]

Well to be fair wxman, if 94L would of developed like the models showed im sure it would have moved to the NE caribbean, however when the models backed off development they have been spot on with track, now that they are developing 94L again to even a possible hurricane they show this getting into the Gulf, and if 96L develops, there will be a weakness, not sure if enough to really get this to turn north, but this discussion is all for not if it doesnt develop...

I even believe you said yesterday, this may try to get its act together in the Western Caribbean...seems like conditions look pretty good once there

And the models STILL are developing it instantly (within the next 12 hours to TS strength) instead of near the Yucatan, so they're probably still too far right. What if it doesn't develop the next 36-48 hours and is located just east of Nicaragua on Saturday?

[KWT]

Yep that was also the problem for the GFDL when it forecasted Bertha to move northwards at 45W, it over egged how fast it would develop. The idea was ok as it did take a fair jog to the NW when it strengthened but it was far to oagressive with that.

[Ivanhater]

Well to be fair wxman, if 94L would of developed like the models showed im sure it would have moved to the NE caribbean, however when the models backed off development they have been spot on with track, now that they are developing 94L again to even a possible hurricane they show this getting into the Gulf, and if 96L develops, there will be a weakness, not sure if enough to really get this to turn north, but this discussion is all for not if it doesnt develop...

I even believe you said yesterday, this may try to get its act together in the Western Caribbean...seems like conditions look pretty good once there

And the models STILL are developing it instantly (within the next 12 hours to TS strength) instead of near the Yucatan, so they're probably still too far right. What if it doesn't develop the next 36-48 hours and is located just east of Nicaragua on Saturday?

Well your answer is as good as mine I suppose..the synoptics for IF this develops (even more so with possible 96L developing) would suggest this getting in the southern gulf. but that is if this develops, which is the question isnt it? Seems to me conditions look great in the Western Caribbean, and this is pulsing right along for it to spark in the favorable set up in the Western Caribbean..but of course that is just my opinion

[category5]

And the models STILL are developing it instantly (within the next 12 hours to TS strength) instead of near the Yucatan, so they're probably still too far right. What if it doesn't develop the next 36-48 hours and is located just east of Nicaragua on Saturday?

GFDL has it 1003mb in 72 hours...according to recon data it is right now around 1008-1009mb. SFMR recon data was showing many reports of around 30kts. The bottom line though is this: Until we get a certain well difined LLC for the models to digest it will just be a wait and see game. What the models are indicating at the moment (GFDL especially) is that if this develops it could turn into the GOM.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Following 850 mb vorticity on 18Z GFS, the model does not develop this at all, and moves the 'best' part of a healthy wave towards the Mexico-Texas border.


GFS has been pretty good on development this year, so a no-go from GFS can't be discounted.

[abajan]

We got pretty squally weather at times today out of 94L, so you guys WNW of us better not let your guard down quite yet.

[cycloneye]

Hey gomers,what about 90w as the final destination of GFDL in its 18z run


WHXX04 KWBC 172332
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.5 66.2 275./18.0
6 13.0 67.5 289./13.6
12 13.2 69.2 277./16.9
18 13.4 70.9 279./16.5
24 14.2 72.6 294./17.6
30 14.5 74.6 279./20.1
36 15.5 76.2 304./18.1
42 16.0 78.0 286./18.1
48 16.9 79.0 313./13.1
54 18.6 80.2 324./19.9
60 20.5 81.7 322./23.6
66 21.4 83.7 295./21.2
72 22.0 85.6 287./18.8
78 22.2 87.1 278./14.1
84 22.3 88.3 272./10.8
90 22.6 89.1 291./ 7.9
96 23.1 89.7 311./ 8.0
102 23.6 90.1 321./ 5.8
108 24.4 90.3 346./ 8.0
114 25.6 90.3 0./12.7
120 26.8 90.4 353./11.2
126 27.7 90.1 20./10.3

[category5]

GFS has been pretty good on development this year, so a no-go from GFS can't be discounted.

I still can't get over the GFS showing a category 5 hurricane as an open wave last year.

[category5]

Hey gomers,what about 90w as the final destination of GFDL in its 18z run

And heading N straight for N.O.

Slows it down towards the end too so it can have more time over the explosive GOM.

[cycloneye]

Here is the 18z track of GFDL.Is the blue line.

[DESTRUCTION5]

well that GFDL don't look Pretty..

[KWT]

Indeed GFDL has this starting to go NNE towards the end of the run, look like it has it feeling the full effects of any weakness. Interesting but no need to worry about this as its just one model this far north.
models don't look good for the Yucatan mind you either.

[Innotech]

GFDL is probably erroneous here. what is more worrying is that most of the models forecast a northwest moving storm heading towards the yucatan. I personally doubt this, but you never know.

[category5]

What are you up to 94L?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

This is the reason why I wish model runs were not available to the public. Things are bad enough around this country with the economy ie. fuel, housing, jobs, etc. [b]IF this were to develop into something and all the news agencys caught wind of the model runs they would create a mass panic. Especially with the gas situation.

[cycloneye]

Here is another graphic that shows the sharp north turn at 90w from 18z GFDL.

[HouTXmetro]

At this point nothing has developed, so no need to worry just yet.