ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HURAKAN]

Man, I really miss the 10:30pm TWOs now.

Yep, I have never liked the change, but that's another story. Back to our invest.

[Chacor]

We just had a TWO two hours ago!

[HURAKAN]

We just had a TWO two hours ago!

But 94L has changed a little better organized in the last 2 hours.

[Brent]

We just had a TWO two hours ago!

[Praxus]

Not good at all!! Do I have reason to be concerned about being in Cancun tomorrow night??

Concerned? Definitely. You'll probably just have bad weather for a couple of days...but could very possibly end up in the path of a tropical storm or hurricane. I'd make it your business to keep an eye on this. Luckily internet cafes are all over cancun.

Good luck! They've had enough trouble down there...yucatan needs a break.

Also don't forget you could wake up tomorrow and this thing might very well be disappearing, not getting worse.

[boca]

Could the ULL in the SE Bahamas pull 94L more northward rather than straight across into central America?

[jhamps10]

Could the ULL in the SE Bahamas pull 94L more northward rather than straight across into central America?

that's what I'm wondering about myself. looking at a loop it seems that is moving more NW right now, but who cares this thing looks like it is developing now. this does NOT look like a dmax development to me.

to our friend leaving tomorrow for cancun, go ahead and party for a few days, but make sure to keep touch with us, cause we'll let ya know if you need to even think about leaving.... but have a plan ready for a quick leave if possible.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still looks sheared and disorganized to me. Hate to be the party pooper...

[Chacor]

We just had a TWO two hours ago!

But 94L has changed a little better organized in the last 2 hours.

I'm not sure about that. To my untrained eye, organisation appears to have decreased between the first and second images.

[cycloneye]

If my eyes are good,to me it has slowed a tad.See loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[txag2005]

I'm getting more nervous now about heading to Cancun tomorrow. Earlier today it seemed like things should be ok, but based on the last few hours of posts, it seems to be the general idea that this thing will indeed develop.

Not good at all!! Do I have reason to be concerned about being in Cancun tomorrow night??

Getting stuck in Cancun is not a good thing. You might go ahead and go,but keep a close eye on it while there and leave early if it's headed your way.

I guess one positive is the resort I'm staying at is built to withstand a Category 5...apparently it took a direct hit from Emily in 2005 (I believe that was a 3 or 4 upon landfall) and there wasn't all that much damage. I also read that many resorts evacuate to the one I'm staying at. I guess I shouldn't be "AS" worried if something does hit, but its still concerning to possibly be hundreds of feet from the coast. While I hope nothing forms, if it does I just hope it doesn't turn into a major hurricane. I know nothing about weather, but hopefully the fact that it is taken so long to develop will eliminate the time needed to build into a category 3, 4 or 5 storm.

[boca]

Could the ULL in the SE Bahamas pull 94L more northward rather than straight across into central America?

that's what I'm wondering about myself. looking at a loop it seems that is moving more NW right now, but who cares this thing looks like it is developing now. this does NOT look like a dmax development to me.

to our friend leaving tomorrow for cancun, go ahead and party for a few days, but make sure to keep touch with us, cause we'll let ya know if you need to even think about leaving.... but have a plan ready for a quick leave if possible.

Good point bring a lap top with you so you can log on for qiuck updates incase something changes.

[txag2005]

Could the ULL in the SE Bahamas pull 94L more northward rather than straight across into central America?

that's what I'm wondering about myself. looking at a loop it seems that is moving more NW right now, but who cares this thing looks like it is developing now. this does NOT look like a dmax development to me.

to our friend leaving tomorrow for cancun, go ahead and party for a few days, but make sure to keep touch with us, cause we'll let ya know if you need to even think about leaving.... but have a plan ready for a quick leave if possible.

Any thoughts on when landfall could occur. Also, any suggestions on how to get out of town quickly if needed, as I'm not scheduled to leave until Thursday the 24th?

[miachele]

We're supposed to be an hour SOUTH of Cancun this Sunday.
Is 94L the only thing to be worried about right now, or is there something else brewing behind it?
We're in the Yucatan from this weekend to the next (7/20-26).

Thanks weather gurus!

[Innotech]

that is definitely NOT decreasing organization.
I dont know if the circulation tightened up under all that convection, but it looks more impressive than any time since it first came off of Africa. I can definitely see a Cat 1-2 hurricane hitting the yucatan as a possibility now. It depends on what happens with 95L too.

[jhamps10]

Could the ULL in the SE Bahamas pull 94L more northward rather than straight across into central America?

that's what I'm wondering about myself. looking at a loop it seems that is moving more NW right now, but who cares this thing looks like it is developing now. this does NOT look like a dmax development to me.

to our friend leaving tomorrow for cancun, go ahead and party for a few days, but make sure to keep touch with us, cause we'll let ya know if you need to even think about leaving.... but have a plan ready for a quick leave if possible.

Any thoughts on when landfall could occur. Also, any suggestions on how to get out of town quickly if needed, as I'm not scheduled to leave until Thursday the 24th?

well that's the 15,000,000 dollar question right now. if it hits a weakness it takes it towards Cancun, which would delay landfall. however if it takes the straight shot into central America it's hitting land in 2-3 days tops. if it curves more towards the Yucatan, it could be 5 days or even 6. on the getting out of town, I'd ask your resort when you arrive for advice there, as I've never been to Cancun, well at least yet anyway...

of course ALL of this is dependant on if it even develops, which it looks like it could to me, but it's fooled me twice before now.

[curtadams]

Based on the Netherlands Antilles radar, I'd say it's *not* organizing. The convective burst is well north of the center of rotation (which appears near the NA themselves). So it's just more of the disruptive scattered convection which has been 94L's signature.

[cycloneye]

I didnt expect to be affected by 94L but in some form yes,an outer band has made it to Puerto Rico.

[HURAKAN]

[Innotech]

it seems to have run straight into a wall. Any idea what is elongating it like that?