TC Bertha

[Brent]

Sheesh.

I've run out of things to say.

[Chacor]

Convection is attached to a front?

[HURAKAN]

Very interesting.

[cpdaman]

nice outflow to the NE and north now, appears that low's wind shear has turned favorable

appears to be robbing less moisture from her than last nite also

[Frank2]

Ginger (1971) holds the record as the second longest at 27.25 days:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_ ... %281971%29

Ginger looks like Bertha in the wikipedia.com photo...

[HURAKAN]

AL, 02, 2008071718, , BEST, 0, 339N, 578W, 50, 997, TS,

50 KNOTS

[AnnularCane]

Well, look who's perked up again. She certainly has 9 lives!

She is amazing.

[KWT]

Well convection has increased on Bertha's eastern side once again just when it looked like it was finished, really is fighting till the end!
ps, that does sort of look like a possible frontal system starting to develop to Bertha's E/NE but we will have to wait and see?!

[cycloneye]

From 5 PM Discussion:

TO CLARIFY A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION COMMENT...BERTHA COULD BECOME ONE
OF THE TOP 10 LONGEST-LIVED ATLANTIC STORMS...IN TERMS OF DAYS AS A
TROPICAL STORM OR GREATER...IF IT SURVIVES UNTIL SUNDAY.

Below was what they said at 11 AM:

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 58
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

BERTHA COULD BECOME ONE OF THE TOP 10 LONGEST-LIVED STORMS IN
HISTORY IF IT SURVIVES UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

[KWT]

Probably the biggest threat to its survival till Sunday wil be the extra tropical transition, I suspect its going to fall just a little bit short of that right now but I may be wrong!

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 59
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BERTHA IS MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE
AS A TROPICAL STORM WITH DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND OUTFLOW
ALOFT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN WELL-MAINTAINED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE STORM REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE
SHEAR AND WANING SSTS. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS SHOULD
START SHORTLY AFTER 48 HR DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND MORE
RAPIDLY DECREASING SSTS...AND BY 120 HR...THE REMNANTS OF BERTHA
WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED INTO A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

THE STORM HAS MADE AN EASTWARD TURN AND IS MOVING ABOUT 090/10. A
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF BERTHA SHOULD STEER THE STORM MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW...FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND A MIDDLE- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
ON AN ACCELERATING PATH OUT TO SEA. THE GFS HAS CHANGED FROM THE
SOUTH TO NORTH SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...NOW SHOWING MORE
INTERACTION WITH A NEW MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE CONSENSUS AND IS
PRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

TO CLARIFY A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION COMMENT...BERTHA COULD BECOME ONE
OF THE TOP 10 LONGEST-LIVED ATLANTIC STORMS...IN TERMS OF DAYS AS A
TROPICAL STORM OR GREATER...IF IT SURVIVES UNTIL SUNDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 34.0N 57.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 34.4N 55.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 35.9N 53.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 37.8N 51.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 39.9N 48.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 45.0N 41.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 21/1800Z 53.5N 30.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 22/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

Yes, that's long-lived Bertha.

[KWT]

Have to admit this is a really impressive system, Bertha certainly has been one for the history books just like its older sibliing...Bertha 96.

[HURAKAN]

Heavy convection developing over the SE quadrant.

[HURAKAN]

The big picture.

[gotoman38]

Big Bertha is kickin the L to her NE up N now and building E - impressive

[HURAKAN]

Bertha is not letting go.

[KWT]

Woah Bertha still looking real good right now, even the NHC states:

"THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50
KNOTS...BUT IT COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER."

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[cycloneye]

Amazing!