ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

It does look interesting NDG and it does look like the inflow is picking up, if the system is further north then the inflow should moisten up nicely over water as well.

Got a nice large are aof convection, first Vis.imagery just coing through now but want to wait for a loop to see what its really doing!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Matt, the NHC experts would not be giving this a 20-50% chance of development within 48 hours and waste resources by sending recon every day to investigate if they thought it had as much chance to develop as a bearded woman winning miss america. Their the best in the world at what they do and I believe their opinion is greatly valued.

Derek ortt is a hurricane researcher. I'm not sure but I believe he is close to as knowledgeable as the nhc forecasters? I'm not sure correct me if I'm wrong.

[NDG]

I am afraid vis sat is not going to show us much other than an overall circulation since the low pressure center seems to be centered under the d.o.c.

[category5]

Derek ortt is a hurricane researcher. I'm not sure but I believe he is close to as knowledgeable as the nhc forecasters? I'm not sure correct me if I'm wrong.

I'm saying we should not discount the best experts in the world...NHC forecasters have decades of tropical experience. Discounting them is like saying you don't want Albert Einstein to help you work a calculus problem.

[KWT]

That may well be the case NDg if the circulation is there under the convection then recon will have to find it, as long as shear doesn't ramp up before recon makes it there we may have it find some interesting stuff...who knows!

[NDG]

Matt, the NHC experts would not be giving this a 20-50% chance of development within 48 hours and waste resources by sending recon every day to investigate if they thought it had as much chance to develop as a bearded woman winning miss america. Their the best in the world at what they do and I believe their opinion is greatly valued.

Derek ortt is a hurricane researcher. I'm not sure but I believe he is close to as knowledgeable as the nhc forecasters? I'm not sure correct me if I'm wrong.

Nothing against Derek, he is very knowledgeable, but he is also very conservative, and that is his style and I respect his style because more often than not he is going to be right unlike a famous web forecaster we all know. Just look back to the days before Arthur & Bertha formed.

[Thunder44]

Looks like I'm having problems with my IE browser. I can see the radar images on Firefox. I can see the circulation NDG is talking about, but it looks like it could still be broad. It may also just be a MLC. It hard to determine a LLC from that range on the radar.

[NDG]

[Smurfwicked]

IR Floater Loop

I'm getting a database error with that link

Code: Select all

Microsoft JET Database Engine error '80040e14'

Syntax error (missing operator) in query expression 'storm_basin='' AND storm_number='' AND storm_season='.

/products/tc_realtime/templates/storm_name.asp, line 20

[KWT]

I agree Thunder it may well be the case this is stil la broad low but without recon its tough to really tell. One tying that is true is that its very convective this morning.

[NDG]

IR Floater Loop

I'm getting a database error with that link

Code: Select all

Microsoft JET Database Engine error '80040e14'

Syntax error (missing operator) in query expression 'storm_basin='' AND storm_number='' AND storm_season='.

/products/tc_realtime/templates/storm_name.asp, line 20

Yeah I know, let me see if I can find a better link to it, I changed it latest vis for now

[NDG]

Moving Floater IR loop

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 19N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND RADAR DATA OVERNIGHT FROM
CURACAO INDICATE A BROAD LOW EXISTS NORTH OF CURACAO AND ARUBA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
INTO AN AREA OF BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE WRN
CARIBBEAN. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS FRI AND THIS WEEKEND.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN
66W-72W SURROUNDING THE LOW. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
S OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-73W.

[HURAKAN]

[NDG]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 19N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND RADAR DATA OVERNIGHT FROM
CURACAO INDICATE A BROAD LOW EXISTS NORTH OF CURACAO AND ARUBA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
INTO AN AREA OF BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE WRN
CARIBBEAN. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS FRI AND THIS WEEKEND.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN
66W-72W SURROUNDING THE LOW. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
S OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-73W.

This is exactly what the 2 AM TWO said. Lets see what the 8 AM TWO says.

[cycloneye]

KNHC 181145
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA FROM CURACAO INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND IS NOW CENTERED JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF ARUBA. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT ANY TIME
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 20 MPH. ANOTHER
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE WEATHER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM...ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS TODAY.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Its a mushroom Hurakan!

Yep the 8am TWO is out now, notice now we have that a Td could form at any time, thats pretty much the highest level of warning you can have IMO and so if recon find a LLC this time this will likely get upgraded if it can hold the convection this time. This may be an interesting day

[Smurfwicked]

Its a mushroom Hurakan!

Yep the 8am TWO is out now, notice now we have that a Td could form at any time, thats pretty much the highest level of warning you can have IMO and so if recon find a LLC this time this will likely get upgraded if it can hold the convection this time. This may be an interesting day

Yet, the graphic on the homepage still has the area in orange. I was expecting it to turn red with this update.

[category5]

NHC code red: this officially has a greater than 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression within 48 hours.