ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HURAKAN]

Ability to mantain deep convection is still a problem.

[NDG]

:uarrow: That is more north than the other one that Thunder posted.

That's the circulation that the NHC has been tracking since last night.

[HURAKAN]

Hurakan what is that by the way?
Suggest this does have a closed low but north around 13.5 north.

ROCK, yep recon today is going to be very interesting to watch I feel!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL942008

Don't know how accurate it's.

[NDG]

This is the circulation center that I am seeing this morning, around 13.3N & 71W, it could very well be the MLC since it has been getting a little northerly shear.

[KWT]

Oh yeah ok thats cool Hurakan!

Also on that vis imagery there does seem to be a little kink where you placed that center NDG, I think we al lcan agree its closer to TD status then it was 24hrs ago.

[NDG]

This explains why all the sudden organization, I sort of get the hint that is developing its own UL anticyclonic ridge on top.

[srainhoutx]

Good morning. Looks like we may have at least a TD today when RECON arrives a bit later this morning. I see Code Red is back up on NHC/TPC as well. Now HGX and BRO are mentioning this disturbance. Keeping an eye on TUTT over S Bahamas/E Cuba...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

[txag2005]

Well, I leave for Cancun area in a few hours. It looks like this thing is going to end up forming. I'll be checking a couple times a day while I'm out there, to be aware of what is going on.

Here's to hoping that if this thing does form and hit the Cancun area, it stays a tropical depression or tropical storm.

[HURAKAN]

Could the ULL in the Bahamas be enhancing the outflow and convection of 94L?

[KWT]

Quite possibly Hurakan, as others have said we do mneed to watch to see what the ULL ends up doing and where does it decide to go.

NDG, yep shear is lowering quite neatly right now over the system, high shear again to the NW but we will have to wait and see how this evolves.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It should have a better chance today, getting into a tad less fast Easterly flow, increasing convergence and decreasing shear.


My bet, a vortex message today from recon, and may skip straight to Cristobal. The offshore Georgia system, if it gets an airplane today, may be TD #4 or Dolly. May do that without an airplane if we get a ship report there. The Navy towers on the NDBC website in the area of 96L all seem out of commission. I think 96L is as close to a lock as possible, with the caveat it stays offshore, and as noted on the 96L thread, a new center may be forming a little further offshore.


All of this very unofficial, of course.


I will also say, unofficially, the 6Z GFDL track towards SW Louisiana seems wrong to me. I prefer the global models. I still think a Yucatan hit, followed by a second landfall, probably in Mexico but possibly close enough to bring seas & squalls South of CRP, seems most likely. This is starting to finally organize a bit too far South and West, on a generally Westward heading, to come as far North as the GFDL implies. But, if I lived in Corpus Christi or Brownsville or America's favorite city, Kingsville, where I once dated a Texas A&I co-ed I met while visiting a friend in Alice, I'd be buying water and batteries and gasoline, things that will get used eventually anyway, but I would not panic.

Even professionals have a hard time with intensity. I'd guess, however, as is its usual bias, the Canadian global is too strong. The UK Met tropical, which never sees this as a storm, may be too weak.


Again, while I think my advice to people living along and inland of South Padre Island is good advice, I suspect they will be at the Northern edge of the inclement weather, and, my advice is unofficial, I'm decent, as an amateur, in my not that humble opinion, but I am still an amateur (to wit - 3 days ago, I thought 94L would be crossing Cuba on its way to Florida), and Storm2K does not endorse this advice in any way.

[NDG]

Could the ULL in the Bahamas be enhancing the outflow and convection of 94L?

I mentioned that last night, that I thought that the ULL was going to initially give a break to 94L, we will see how they interact over the next couple days, but it is certainly changing the UL winds over 94L.

[txag2005]

It should have a better chance today, getting into a tad less fast Easterly flow, increasing convergence and decreasing shear.


My bet, a vortex message today from recon, and may skip straight to Cristobal. The offshore Georgia system, if it gets an airplane today, may be TD #4 or Dolly. May do that without an airplane if we get a ship report there. The Navy towers on the NDBC website in the area of 96L all seem out of commission. I think 96L is as close to a lock as possible, with the caveat it stays offshore, and as noted on the 96L thread, a new center may be forming a little further offshore.


All of this very unofficial, of course.


I will also say, unofficially, the 6Z GFDL track towards SW Louisiana seems wrong to me. I prefer the global models. I still think a Yucatan hit, followed by a second landfall, probably in Mexico but possibly close enough to bring seas & squalls South of CRP, seems most likely. This is starting to finally organize a bit too far South and West, on a generally Westward heading, to come as far North as the GFDL implies. But, if I lived in Corpus Christi or Brownsville or America's favorite city, Kingsville, where I once dated a Texas A&I co-ed I met while visiting a friend in Alice, I'd be buying water and batteries and gasoline, things that will get used eventually anyway, but I would not panic.

Even professionals have a hard time with intensity. I'd guess, however, as is its usual bias, the Canadian global is too strong. The UK Met tropical, which never sees this as a storm, may be too weak.


Again, while I think my advice to people living along and inland of South Padre Island is good advice, I suspect they will be at the Northern edge of the inclement weather, and, my advice is unofficial, I'm decent, as an amateur, in my not that humble opinion, but I am still an amateur (to wit - 3 days ago, I thought 94L would be crossing Cuba on its way to Florida), and Storm2K does not endorse this advice in any way.

I can't really read the models....what sort of intensity are the models predicting for the Yucatan hit?

[NDG]

Ed, remember that UKMET also had a hard time with Bertha initially. For some reason UKMET is not doing too well this year in the Atlantic.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, I leave for Cancun area in a few hours. It looks like this thing is going to end up forming. I'll be checking a couple times a day while I'm out there, to be aware of what is going on.

Here's to hoping that if this thing does form and hit the Cancun area, it stays a tropical depression or tropical storm.

The hotels are well built in Cancun/Cozumel, most survived Wilma pretty well. From what I've seen on TV and read in magazines, many hotels in the Caribbean have a 'safe' area in case a big storm does hit, that doesn't have windows and is well built.

Bring a digital camera, and if you see any palm trees swaying, before it gets too windy to safely stay outdoors, take pics and upload them for our edification when you return.


Have fun. Oh, while ceviche is supposedly 'cooked' in citrus and vinegar, my parents ruined their Acapulco vacation about 20 years ago eating it from a street vendor.


About a day of bad weather, and cool stories for your friends, and then a nice beach vacation, is my unofficial forecast.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ed, remember that UKMET also had a hard time with Bertha initially. For some reason UKMET is not doing too well this year in the Atlantic.

That is why I used the UK Met as the low outlier, the CMC as the high outlier as far as intensity guesses.

[srainhoutx]

Could the ULL in the Bahamas be enhancing the outflow and convection of 94L?

I mentioned that last night, that I thought that the ULL was going to initially give a break to 94L, we will see how they interact over the next couple days, but it is certainly changing the UL winds over 94L.

We are on the same page NDG. As I saw the TUTT last evening getting into the action. RECON should be very interesting today. Ed, you very well be right concerning a VDM from RECON. It won't be much longer until we know the true story concerning 94L. RECON is scheduled to depart around 10:45 EDT from St Croix.

[Frank P]

Satellite presentation of 94L gets better by the hour... convection also on the rise in the east and north quads... this system is really getting that look with banding effects on the northern half developing as I type this...

[HouTXmetro]

I'm thinking if there is a LLC it may reform under the deepest convection. Right now that is NE of earlier.

[KWT]

Well the thing is Ed we were getting flight level winds of 34-35kts in the deep convection yesterday so if this really has strengthened and does have a closed low you may well be right.
Then again its going to be a case of waiting for recon to get a good look at this system. Prehaps the best this system has looked ever today...