ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Frank P]

I'm thinking if there is a LLC it may reform under the deepest convection. Right now that is NE of earlier.

I was thinking something similar as well, would not be surprised if that happened, but with this system all bets are off...

[Ed Mahmoud]

The GFDL is so far North (in error, in my humble and amateur opinion) Cancun/Cozumel never see storm force winds. Strong tropical storm during its closest approach per GFDL.


I haven't seen SHIPs this morning since the Ohio State Twister site was lobotomized. The 0Z SHIPs that is posted on the model thread also seems to show a strong tropical storm about the time it would be in the ballpark of the Yucatan.

[cycloneye]

The GFDL is so far North (in error, in my humble and amateur opinion) Cancun/Cozumel never see storm force winds. Strong tropical storm during its closest approach per GFDL.


I haven't seen SHIPs this morning since the Ohio State Twister site was lobotomized. The 0Z SHIPs that is posted on the model thread also seems to show a strong tropical storm about the time it would be in the ballpark of the Yucatan.

No SHIP yet as it has been delayed the release.

[NDG]

Well the thing is Ed we were getting flight level winds of 34-35kts in the deep convection yesterday so if this really has strengthened and does have a closed low you may well be right.
Then again its going to be a case of waiting for recon to get a good look at this system. Prehaps the best this system has looked ever today...

QS showed 40knot winds NE of the center under convection.

[lrak]

Its been a long time Ed. My friends and I are going to the PA Jetties tonight to fish for some PeppermintShrimp

because I was predicting that the swell next weekend will wash them away.

We put them in our salt tanks, they almost glow under a 14000k light, plus they cost about $10 at the pet shop.

I sure hope you're wrong

[KWT]

I think in Cancun unless this system really ramps up your not likely to see extreme winds even if this system does really ramp up IMO. Still keep a close eye because I agree with Ed I can't see it missing the Yucatan to the north like the GFDL, going to have to go a long way to the north from here to do that.

NDG, yep indeed also surface estimates were pretty high as well yesterday.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm thinking if there is a LLC it may reform under the deepest convection. Right now that is NE of earlier.

I was thinking something similar as well, would not be surprised if that happened, but with this system all bets are off...

This is more of a model thread caveat, but since the center hasn't really been fixed, and may even reform, neither intensity or track models may be exactly properly initialized.


I think I'll copy and paste this in the model thread as well

[Normandy]

Since it is moving so fast, if this does indeed close off a circulation it is likely to go straight to Christobal and bypass TD status. It has always had TS winds when it had intense convection, it just didn't have the closed low.

[SWFLA_CANE]

I think the million dollar question is when is Jim Cantore boarding the plane for Cancun.

[canes04]

We may finally have a clear LLC developing near 14.7N & 70W.
Keep an eye on this area this morning.

[tolakram]

3 hours ago.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Problem is no models have a good idea on where this will go until/if it actually develops into a storm. It is all just speculation right now. I am curious to know if that ull keeps moving west over FL into the gulf will that help break down the high even more. Also what if 96 does develop and drifts around for a couple of days off the east coast. And of course IF 94 strengthens and gets a little more northerly motion in the mix things could get more interesting. There seems to be a lot players that can make a huge different in the final outcome.

[txag2005]

Hey everyone. I just want to say thanks for all the info over the last couple days preping for my trip. I actually feel a little better about heading into the likely path of this thing if it develops. This is all new to me, but based on your comments, the resorts down there (including the one I'm going to apparently) are built to withstand this thing, and we are unlikely going to see anything bigger than a smaller hurricane I imagine on the Yucatan.

Thanks again, and I'll be checking throughout the next few days!

[DESTRUCTION5]

WXman where are you? This uis ready to roll..

[Fego]

I think this is the better that 94L have looked.

[Comanche]

Last time we came out a of very strong La Nina (1989), Houston had 3 or 4 strikes that year. Since we are coming out of what I believe is the strongest La Nina since (maybe stronger than 1989), I will go with a mid to upper TX coast strike based on historicals.

Of course this is just my useless, less than ameteurish prediction.

[KWT]

This certainly is looking decent this morning, not sure how much of a structure it has but its firing p convection across quite a large area this morning even if some of it is being helped by the shear.

Indeed cyclone mike until we have an exact center fix we won't know what track is the most likely and obviously that would also make a big difference to eventual possible strength.

[cycloneye]

Hey everyone. I just want to say thanks for all the info over the last couple days preping for my trip. I actually feel a little better about heading into the likely path of this thing if it develops. This is all new to me, but based on your comments, the resorts down there (including the one I'm going to apparently) are built to withstand this thing, and we are unlikely going to see anything bigger than a smaller hurricane I imagine on the Yucatan.

Thanks again, and I'll be checking throughout the next few days!

Have a good and safe trip,and when you can,post reports from Cancun.

[cpdaman]

for now it appears that ULL is helping both 96L and 94L

[srainhoutx]

Hey everyone. I just want to say thanks for all the info over the last couple days preping for my trip. I actually feel a little better about heading into the likely path of this thing if it develops. This is all new to me, but based on your comments, the resorts down there (including the one I'm going to apparently) are built to withstand this thing, and we are unlikely going to see anything bigger than a smaller hurricane I imagine on the Yucatan.

Thanks again, and I'll be checking throughout the next few days!

Have a great trip and take lots of pics. You'll have a great time.