ATL: Dolly Model Runs

SWFLA_CANE · #421 Postby **SWFLA_CANE** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 11:29 am

GFS seems to be trending more north with each run.

Ed Mahmoud · #422 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 11:37 am

SWFLA_CANE wrote:GFS seems to be trending more north with each run.

GFS trends to recurve systems in the Atlantic too quickly. I do not know if it has a similar bias in the Caribbean.

Wx_Warrior · #423 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 11:46 am

Gut, along with brother, tell me a little further south.

#424 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 11:46 am

actually, if the system would be stronger initially.....could make that all the way to LA

#425 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 11:50 am

deltadog03 wrote:actually, if the system would be stronger initially.....could make that all the way to LA

Yes my opinion is the same. Deeper the farther north this thing is heading.

#426 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 12:37 pm

Interesting that 12z GFDL dissipates 94L in 54 hours:

WHXX04 KWBC 181728
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.4 71.1 280./15.9
6 13.6 72.7 276./15.7
12 12.5 73.9 229./15.2
18 12.5 73.9 248./ .5
24 12.4 73.9 157./ .7
30 12.3 73.9 169./ 1.6
36 12.3 73.9 153./ .2
42 12.3 73.9 326./ .3
48 12.3 73.9 45./ .0
54 12.3 73.9 146./ .3

STORM DISSIPATED AT 54 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

oyster_reef · #427 Postby **oyster_reef** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 12:38 pm

dead in 54 hrs... I hope he's on to something!

HouTXmetro · #428 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 12:43 pm

That's an abrupt reversal!

Derek Ortt · #429 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:19 pm

the canadian is also a lot weaker

hopefully last night's runs were an anomaly

also, looks like none of the globals now do anything with this wave. maybe last night was the time when there was a problem with the initialization

PTrackerLA · #430 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:20 pm

Wow big reversal in GFDL, I have no idea what to think now :double:

.

#431 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:20 pm

to me it looks like some of the models are really trying to amplify the trough expected to swing through the Northern CONUS which would allow a North movement. The fact that a system as a weak depression or storm can move north means there is a good weakness expected.

Let's hope whatever moves North, IFF it moves north is weak though.

#432 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:40 pm

Note at this time model consensus either loses 94L or brings it more West then Eastern GOM

boca · #433 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:44 pm

Ithink the ULL will be more of a player with the track of 94L. It seems like its pulling 94L more NW now than say yesterday. Just an obeservation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Derek Ortt · #434 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:44 pm

no no no no no Gator!

The GFS does not take this anywhere near the EGOM. Please don't spread these false threats... GFS takes the wave to the WGOM... and as a weak system

#435 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:45 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:no no no no no Gator!

The GFS does not take this anywhere near the EGOM. Please don't spread these false threats... GFS takes the wave to the WGOM... and as a weak system

Agreed I did mention model consensus shows a weak system --- and are trending towards WGOM in that post.

Edited the post as necessary.

Jason_B · #436 Postby **Jason_B** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:47 pm

Funny how most of the Floridians on here are hyping up the more northerly track for this storm when the consensus is still Mexico/Texas. Just an observation. :wink:

#437 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:48 pm

hurricanelandfall wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:no no no no no Gator!

The GFS does not take this anywhere near the EGOM. Please don't spread these false threats... GFS takes the wave to the WGOM... and as a weak system
go back and read what Gator said...he never said the GFS takes this into the EGOM. He said EGOM residents should not let their guard down.

Indeed but I went ahead and took out the graphic to avoid confusion. I also removed all of the post but one sentence.

Ed Mahmoud · #438 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:50 pm

Jason_B wrote:Funny how most of the Floridians on here are hyping up the more northerly track for this storm when the consensus is still Mexico/Texas. Just an observation.

When all the action this week will probably be in North Carolina...

#439 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 2:10 pm

Moving now 285 degrees.

WHXX01 KWBC 181901
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1901 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080718 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080718 1800 080719 0600 080719 1800 080720 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 72.7W 15.3N 76.0W 16.5N 79.7W 17.4N 83.0W
BAMD 14.4N 72.7W 15.1N 75.1W 16.3N 77.8W 17.5N 80.5W
BAMM 14.4N 72.7W 15.3N 75.5W 16.5N 78.6W 17.7N 81.5W
LBAR 14.4N 72.7W 15.3N 75.7W 16.5N 79.0W 17.8N 82.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080720 1800 080721 1800 080722 1800 080723 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 86.0W 19.8N 90.7W 21.5N 93.8W 23.2N 96.3W
BAMD 18.7N 83.2W 20.7N 87.9W 22.4N 91.3W 23.4N 93.6W
BAMM 19.1N 84.4W 21.2N 89.2W 23.3N 92.9W 25.0N 95.9W
LBAR 19.1N 85.5W 21.8N 91.2W 22.4N 95.2W 24.4N 96.9W
SHIP 56KTS 69KTS 71KTS 72KTS
DSHP 56KTS 55KTS 57KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 72.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 69.5W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 66.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

ROCK · #440 Postby **ROCK** » Fri Jul 18, 2008 2:36 pm

cycloneye wrote:Moving now 285 degrees.

WHXX01 KWBC 181901
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1901 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080718 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080718 1800 080719 0600 080719 1800 080720 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 72.7W 15.3N 76.0W 16.5N 79.7W 17.4N 83.0W
BAMD 14.4N 72.7W 15.1N 75.1W 16.3N 77.8W 17.5N 80.5W
BAMM 14.4N 72.7W 15.3N 75.5W 16.5N 78.6W 17.7N 81.5W
LBAR 14.4N 72.7W 15.3N 75.7W 16.5N 79.0W 17.8N 82.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080720 1800 080721 1800 080722 1800 080723 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 86.0W 19.8N 90.7W 21.5N 93.8W 23.2N 96.3W
BAMD 18.7N 83.2W 20.7N 87.9W 22.4N 91.3W 23.4N 93.6W
BAMM 19.1N 84.4W 21.2N 89.2W 23.3N 92.9W 25.0N 95.9W
LBAR 19.1N 85.5W 21.8N 91.2W 22.4N 95.2W 24.4N 96.9W
SHIP 56KTS 69KTS 71KTS 72KTS
DSHP 56KTS 55KTS 57KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 72.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 69.5W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 66.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

image?? I am lazy.... :lol:

ATL: Dolly Model Runs

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