ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Ivanhater]

My take is this will be named tomorrow...

If those deep reds keep re-firing on IR for the next few hours, maybe sooner?

Unless this really takes off this evening, I think the NHC will wait til Recon gets back out there tomorrow

[coreyl]

18/1745 UTC 15.1N 71.5W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

SAB seems to think the center is farther north.

What is SAB?

[sgastorm]

SAB is the Satellite Analysis Branch. You can see their classifications of systems at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html.

[wxman57]

Here's a high-res satellite with surface obs and 1-deg lat/lon lines. Pick your center location and look at the obs. Nothing there in the way of an LLC. Just an open wave. Will have to wait a day or two.

[DESTRUCTION5]

There is none WxMan but what i doo see is one coming together WAY further north than models indcated..

[ColdFusion]

Unless this really takes off this evening, I think the NHC will wait til Recon gets back out there tomorrow

Maybe so, but looking at a very small piece of the pie, the last few frames of the IR - it gives the appearance it wants to wrap up. Huge blowup of cold tops near the center, and possibly some nice convection forming to what could be the west of the reforming center? Looks like some early banding features to the NE, but could be a short lived appearance I guess.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[wxman57]

wxman57...what do you think of the GFDL taking even a weak storm (tropical depression) north into the central gulf. Will weak not mean west this time?

The new 12Z GFDL stalls it and takes it south to Columbia and kills it in 54hrs. I think it may be on Columbian crack.

[cheezyWXguy]

Here's a high-res satellite with surface obs and 1-deg lat/lon lines. Pick your center location and look at the obs. Nothing there in the way of an LLC. Just an open wave. Will have to wait a day or two.

Yeah..nothing now, but I assume thats because of a "center" reformation further north. Obviously this takes time, especially with developing systems such as this one. But conditions are improving, deep convection continues to burst, and this will likely at least try to organize its llc during the night. I dont expect a td today or tonight, but it looks likely tomorrow, if it continues to organize..and when it does, this thing could really take off.

[gatorcane]

There is none WxMan but what i doo see is one coming together WAY further north than models indcated..

I do also DESTRUCTION at around th 15N lattitude.

[canes04]

14.9N 71W, I think we will have a TS within 12hrs heading toward Jamaica.

[Ivanhater]

Unless this really takes off this evening, I think the NHC will wait til Recon gets back out there tomorrow

Maybe so, but looking at a very small piece of the pie, the last few frames of the IR - it gives the appearance it wants to wrap up. Huge blowup of cold tops near the center, and possibly some nice convection forming to what could be the west of the reforming center? Looks like some early banding features to the NE, but could be a short lived appearance I guess.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Oh I totally agree this is starting to wrap up..the structure looks great, looks like a whole new system from the past few days, dont think its there yet, but like I said, I think this will be named tomorrow

[sgastorm]

I think I see something around 15N 72W. Must be a mid-level vortex.

[Ivanhater]

wxman57...what do you think of the GFDL taking even a weak storm (tropical depression) north into the central gulf. Will weak not mean west this time?

The new 12Z GFDL stalls it and takes it south to Columbia and kills it in 54hrs. I think it may be on Columbian crack.

Now thats just plain funny right there!

[wxman57]

One other thing about the pic I posted above. Note the ship report near 13.8N/75W. 1020mb pressure! That's why I say that you can't trust ship reports much. Many never heard of the word "calibration". Maybe they got the wind right.

[SWFLA_CANE]

14.9N 71W, I think we will have a TS within 12hrs heading toward Jamaica.

Models start out at 14.4 moving 285

[Ivanhater]

Oh Chris...not sure if you can say but are you telling anything to your clients in the Western Gulf?..I know they have those oil rigs to worry about

[Cryomaniac]

14.9N 71W, I think we will have a TS within 12hrs heading toward Jamaica.

The following is the opinion of Cryomanaic, and it's not based on meteorological or economic evidence, or anything else. It should not be used for any purpose

I agree, this should be a tropical storm within 24 hours in my massively amateur opinion. Not too sure about the direction at the moment, and to be honest, I prefer not to speculate about directions of storms.

[MGC]

This looks like a classic example of a tropical wave interacting with an ULL thus the enhanced convection. I'm still calling for development south of Jamacia like I did on Wednesday evening. Gotta stay consistent (I know some of you will say consistently full of it)....MGC

[Ivanhater]

[GeneratorPower]

Looks pretty darn good for looking so bad.