ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[cycloneye]

18/1745 UTC 31.8N 80.8W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Bane]

definitely getting close to being classified.

[cpdaman]

18/1745 UTC 31.8N 80.8W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic Ocean

this would put it about 20 miles from land, no?

[MGC]

Upwelling won't be a problem since the GS is providing a constant supply of warm water.

96L should have been flown today because it is closer to land and a greater threat to mariners.

The LLCC does look to be reforming to the SE of were it was this morning.....MGC

[brunota2003]

The lowest pressure from the buoys today is 29.89 (roughly 1012), so 2 millibars lower than they were yesterday afternoon.

The highest winds, though, are still 20 knots...

[SkyDragon]

This is more dangerous currently than 94L.

[WmE]

18/1745 UTC 31.8N 80.8W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic Ocean

this would put it about 20 miles from land, no?

Per google earthe about 10 miles off shore. (that seems very close)

[brunota2003]

They started today's model runs off at the intensity of 25 knots, on the model page.

[weatherSnoop]

On vis loop and CHS radar, looks like the circulation center is trying to back away from land to the South and east. If successful, could allow for convection to build on the west side as well

[storms in NC]

It may go ahead and go in land from the looks of it. it would have to jog to the east to stay off the coast. Right or not?
From doing a tracking map to where it is now would ride the coast to SC-NC line then come out at the NC-Va line. That is doing a NE movement

[cycloneye]

[Stormtrack03]

[storms in NC]

It is just right off the coast of Savannah. 31.8 80.8

[cpdaman]

[..... until this bouy changes from a moderate south wind .... i don't see how the redevelop theory could be reality http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SKMG1

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SKMG1 well wind is now west where it had been south and south east for awhile as well as falling at a decent clip

i think old LLC is fallng apart

some turning

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[brunota2003]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
348 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT WILL DRIFT NORTH OR
NORTHEAST AND BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER
SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE NEXT WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BANDS OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS ROTATING IN FROM THE OCEAN WELL
NORTH OF THE MAIN CIRCULATION OFF THE SE COAST. THIS CONVECTION
WILL TEND TO WEAKEN WITH DYTM HEAT LOSS ESP INLAND THIS EVE BUT
PRECIP BANDING WILL CONT TO ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW AND MOST LIKELY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERNMOST/COASTAL AREAS OVRNGT. ABUNDANT LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO FAVOR LOW STRATUS DECK WITH LOWS MAINLY L-M70S
IN THE HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
PCPN CHCS WILL BE INCRSG ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRES SLOWLY APPROACHES
THE SE NC COAST. AGAIN BEST CHCS WILL BE OVR SOUTHERN COASTL AREAS
CLOSEST TO ATTENDANT LOW PRES BUT BANDS WILL CONT TO FEED IN OFF
THE OCEAN ALONG ENTIRE CENTRAL NC COAST. THE LOW STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT INTO CUMULUS BASES DURING THE MORN AND SHUD SEE
SOME SUN DURING THE LATE MORN THRU MIDDAY WHICH WILL AID
INSTABILITY. THE GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS
INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGS THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIER
TROPICAL DOWNPOURS WITH TRAINING OF ECHOES OVER A GIVEN AREA
POSSIBLY LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE PRECIPITATION CHCS AND INTENSITY LOOK TO PEAK LATER SAT AFTN
INTO THE EVE WITH THE AIDED BENEFIT OF DYTM HEATING. MUCH OF THE
PCPN MAY THEN REMAIN OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT ALONG AND RIGHT OF THE
TRACK OF LOW PRES.

PCPN CHCS INCREASG AGAIN ON SUNDAY ESP ALONG CSTL AREAS AS A
VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES ARND THE DEPARTING LOW PRES. AGAIN SFC
HEATING WILL AID INSTABILITY INLAND SO PCPN CHCS WILL BE INCLUDED
OVR ENTIRE FCST AREA.

CLOUDS/PCPN WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS DOWN ESP ON SATURDAY BUT SHUD BE
ENUF SUNSHINE INLAND ON SUNDAY TO BOOST TEMPS INTO L90S.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
PCPN CHCS WILL BE LIMITED TO OBX AS SYSTEM CONTS TO PULL AWAY
SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL
LIMIT PCPN CHCS AND BRING TEMPS BACK ABV NORML EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EAST COAST TROFFING REESTABLISHES BY MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMS AND BETTER THAN CLIMO CHCS FOR DIURNAL PCPN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

[HurricaneHunter914]

Apparently everyone is tired of 94L, so I'm watching this one instead.
The center does seem to be moving east or relocating east, I'm guessing this will help convection form on the west side?

[brunota2003]

96L actually looks a little less defined than it did earlier today. This might be because the two centers (ML and LL) are busy trying to reform closer together than they were earlier.

The convection does not look as well defined or deep, along with it being more sporadic across the package of the system.

The good news (for development, not for us coastal folks) is, if the center is indeed reforming, it is getting away from the coast and closer/over the waters of the gulf stream...where there is little shear and plenty of fuel to work with.

The only thing that it really has to work against it, other than proximity to land, is the fact that the coastal areas have plenty of dry air involved. However, if it can get set up, there is little to no shear to knock that dry air into the circulation and choke it off.

[storms in NC]

000
FXUS62 KILM 181935
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
335 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE FINALLY EXITING TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER
NORTH CAROLINA ON TUESDAY...WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE ITS GENERALLY NWRD MVMNT OVERNIGHT. GFS
KEEPS THE LOW ALONG ON JUST INLAND OF THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE
THE NAM KEEPS THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH SCENARIOS WOULD PROVIDE ABUNDANT PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
COAST...BUT HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR INLAND AREAS. THE GFS SOLUTION
RESULTS IN PRECIP BEING SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND. THE GFS HAS
SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM SO WENT WITH A BLEND
OF THE 2 SOLUTIONS BUT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE WEIGHTING GIVEN TO THE
GFS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW DEEP
MOISTURE ARRIVING OVERNIGHT WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. DYNAMICS REMAIN LIMITED WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER OR
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. CLOUDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND GOOD
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO(MID 70S) FOR MOST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SHORT TERM HINGES ON DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRESENTLY OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA. TPC IS
LOOKING CLOSELY AT THIS SYSTEM AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THIS MAY BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW. UNTIL A DECISION IS MADE ON THAT HAVE LEANED ON THE NAM
FOR WINDS AS ITS TRACK UP THE COAST LOOKED MORE REALISTIC THAN THE
GFS PARTIAL OVERLAND SOLUTION. PLUS IT IS MORE IN LINE WITH HPC
PROGS. THIS WILL BRING US ANOTHER DAY OF LIKELY POPS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST...FOR SATURDAY. AS THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY A TROPICAL
AIRMASS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT
COULD SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL QPF VALUES...1 TO 3 INCHES...IN SOME
LOCATIONS. POPS AND QPF TREND DOWN SUNDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES NE AND
EXITS THE AREA. ALL THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING UPON WHAT TPC
DECIDES TO DO.

[storms in NC]

So they are going to go with the GFS

[THE GFS HAS
SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM SO WENT WITH A BLEND
OF THE 2 SOLUTIONS BUT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE WEIGHTING GIVEN TO THE
GFS.]

[brunota2003]

So they are going to go with the GFS

[THE GFS HAS
SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM SO WENT WITH A BLEND
OF THE 2 SOLUTIONS BUT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE WEIGHTING GIVEN TO THE
GFS.]

For the precip for tonight, they are.