TC Bertha

[cycloneye]

Its official,hurricane again!

WTNT42 KNHC 182029
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 63
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BERTHA IS NOW A HURRICANE AGAIN. THE
EYE HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING AROUND
A CONSOLIDATING EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB. BERTHA
SHOULDN'T BE A HURRICANE FOR TOO LONG AS IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
WATERS LESS THAN 70F BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. A SLOW WEAKENING IS
INDICATED...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE. PHASE
DIAGRAMS FROM FLORIDA STATE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD
BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN A DAY OR SO...WITH THE
PROCESS COMPLETE IN ABOUT 48 HR.

BERTHA CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW AT ABOUT 19 KT. THERE
IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING. THE HURRICANE SHOULD
ACCELERATE OUT TO SEA IN A WELL-DEFINED STEERING CURRENT BETWEEN A
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SHOWING GREATER INTERACTION THAN EARLIER WITH
BERTHA AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM NORTH AMERICA... RESULTING IN
A SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND AND LIES ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 37.6N 50.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 39.8N 48.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 42.9N 44.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 46.7N 40.6W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 20/1800Z 51.5N 36.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 21/1800Z 61.0N 23.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 22/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[brunota2003]

Now that would be something if she continues to defy the forecasters.

[DESTRUCTION5]

She's gonna make for a Gusty day In Europe or Greenland..

[Squarethecircle]

I would now say that any storm that forms in the Atlantic this year is going to be hard pressed to be as interesting as Bertha (or as long lived).

[WmE]

I would now say that any storm that forms in the Atlantic this year is going to be hard pressed to be as interesting as Bertha (or as long lived).

Well it'S the longest lived cyclone in the Atlantic since Ivan 2004. Not bad.

[Cyclone1]

Just got back home from a long road trip... man, Bertha is getting so resilient, it's almost annoying.

[DanKellFla]

Hurricane?????? This is one crazy storm. All these days... no landfall.... tropical storm... hurricane... tropical storm...... hurricane.....
I give up. At this point, if it turns south and hit Portugal, I wouldn't be surprised.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I would now say that any storm that forms in the Atlantic this year is going to be hard pressed to be as interesting as Bertha (or as long lived).

Well it'S the longest lived cyclone in the Atlantic since Ivan 2004. Not bad.

Does that count the time when Ivan was an unclassified little circulation wandering down the East Coast?

[ekal]

Bertha is going out in style!

[Cryomaniac]

This post is a gut feeling, brought to you by Cryomaniac, it should not be used for any purpose

I have a strange feeling this is going to hit the UK after it goes Extra-tropical.

[brunota2003]

Hurricane?????? This is one crazy storm. All these days... no landfall.... tropical storm... hurricane... tropical storm...... hurricane.....
I give up. At this point, if it turns south and hit Portugal, I wouldn't be surprised.

Don't be giving Bertha any ideas, now...

[Cryomaniac]

Hurricane?????? This is one crazy storm. All these days... no landfall.... tropical storm... hurricane... tropical storm...... hurricane.....
I give up. At this point, if it turns south and hit Portugal, I wouldn't be surprised.

Don't be giving Bertha any ideas, now...

I agree though, nothing surprises me about this storm any more.

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, it is quite common and well documented that TCs often deepen via baroclinic processes and ideal juxtaposition in the right front quadrant of a jet entrance region (like Bertha now) prior to extratropical transition. I've seen several tropical systems intensify to hurricanes at high latitudes prior to encountering the northern stream and becoming an extratropical cyclone. QG forcing can also aid deepening as well. Regardless, this puts the "icing" on the record breaking cake known as Bertha and its life span!

[Cryomaniac]

Anyone think there is a chance of this doing an impression of Faith?

[MiamiensisWx]

Anyone think there is a chance of this doing an impression of Faith?

Faith was likely extratropical between Greenland, Iceland, and the British Isles, despite the interpretation of the Monthly Weather Review that is demonstrated in the HURDAT database.

[WmE]

I would now say that any storm that forms in the Atlantic this year is going to be hard pressed to be as interesting as Bertha (or as long lived).

Well it'S the longest lived cyclone in the Atlantic since Ivan 2004. Not bad.

Does that count the time when Ivan was an unclassified little circulation wandering down the East Coast?

Yeah that's included. Ivan formed September 2 and became a remnant September 18, that's 16 days (these remnants became a TD on September 22 again and lasted to September 24). Bertha formed July 3 and today is July 18, so that's 15 days.

[KWT]

Well its a hurricane once again, it does look like a hurricane so its not all that surprising but this system just does not want to die off at all does it!

[Squarethecircle]

Very probably a result of some baroclinic intensification, as Miami said. I think Jerry got a little stronger last year before ETT for similar reasons.

[bvigal]

Just got home and pulled up the visible sat on Bertha (before checking the 5pm advisory). WOW! Then looked and saw she was 65kt. Now I ask you, have you ever http://img165.imageshack.us/img165/469/200807182145goes12xvis1nu4.jpg seen an eye like this on a 65kt hurricane? Take a look at the dvorak floater loop, incredible! Bertha is definitely one classy storm!!

[tolakram]

Bertha's been one amazing storm.