ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[txwatcher91]

As of 5:40, there is a very nice explosion of convection over or near the circulation.

[brunota2003]

A tropical cyclone is the generic term for a non-frontal synoptic scale low-pressure system over tropical or sub-tropical waters with organized convection (i.e. thunderstorm activity) and definite cyclonic surface wind circulation (Holland 1993).

Tropical cyclones with maximum sustained surface winds of less than 17 m/s (34 kt, 39 mph) are called "tropical depressions" (This is not to be confused with the condition mid-latitude people get during a long, cold and grey winter wishing they could be closer to the equator ).

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A1.html

[senorpepr]

This is NOT a midlevel cirulation it is a low level cirulation. It has convection forming over it right now, and should be a tropical cyclone.

Why should it be?

T numbers are around 1.5, not quite good enough, circulation isn't that well defined, the northwestern sector is pathetic and being hampered by dry air, the center is blooming a bit, but maybe a storm tomorrow or overnight, but surely not right now.

Dude, please it has a defined LLC with convection forming over it. Learn something!

I think a key thing you said was in the tense of one of your verbs: "forming". It may be forming, but it isn't fully established. It's not quite there, but close, in my opinion.

[funster]

LOL @senorpepr graphic - better take some water with that enormous pill

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The thing is I can't see an elongated LLC with this one, it looks pretty tight embedded in a larger cyclone circulation and has convection firing, I'd fully expect the NHC to pull the trigger fairly soon if it keeps this up for another 6hrs or so.

This reminds me a little of alex. I don't believe it will become a cane, but weird things have happen before.

I'm sorry senorpepr, the new member is starting to get on my nerves a little. I will chill.

[Derek Ortt]

please calm down matt

[BensonTCwatcher]

It looks like the dry air that has been holding off development of the W side of the system may be subsiding. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html It was drier than normal today and are getting showers now in Raleigh. Not sure how far out the land interaction will deter development, but if the convection increases tonight and "wraps" (I thnk it is likely to do that) we'll see a TD by the 5 am.

[kurtpage]

This is NOT a midlevel cirulation it is a low level cirulation. It has convection forming over it right now, and should be a tropical cyclone.

Why should it be?

T numbers are around 1.5, not quite good enough, circulation isn't that well defined, the northwestern sector is pathetic and being hampered by dry air, the center is blooming a bit, but maybe a storm tomorrow or overnight, but surely not right now.

Dude, please it has a defined LLC with convection forming over it. Learn something!

What is with your attitude?

This does not have a WELL defined LLC and it is still pretty low on the T numbers....if things change then the NHC will upgrade. They are the closest to this storm then any other storm and have more info for it because of that proximity than the other invests....just give it time I do believe that it will develop and there are many conditions that favor this (minus the dry air it seems to be sucking in)....

[BensonTCwatcher]

The ULL to the SE looks primed to ventilate if it gets off teh land and dry air. Just my luck too. Staring vacation in Ocean Isle tomorrow. Hopefully eh early model guidance will verify and this will steer out to the NE away from the coast and not hug it.

[Bane]

The thing is I can't see an elongated LLC with this one, it looks pretty tight embedded in a larger cyclone circulation and has convection firing, I'd fully expect the NHC to pull the trigger fairly soon if it keeps this up for another 6hrs or so.

This reminds me a little of alex. I don't believe it will become a cane, but weird things have happen before.

I'm sorry senorpepr, the new member is starting to get on my nerves a little. I will chill.

that new member has been around since 2005. looks more like a long time lurker than a new member.

[storms in NC]

31.5/79.5 is the current location of the LLC. Convection is starting to fire over it with some banding featuers. I expect this to be a depression very soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/vis-l.jpg

Matt are you saying that it is moving more now to the NE than it was earlyer today? I don't think it was moving much at all till now. I know I am crazy but I would love for this to come inland and give all that need this rain so badly. I was hoping for it to put the the fire out here in NC if not it can burn for a few months more up to a year they said. Not good.

[KWT]

Agreed kurtpage though I wonder where the agencies are placing the center right now?
Also this does clearly have a pretty well defined LLC, its been going now for the last 24hrs and looks just as strong now as it did, the main differenceis a decent convective burst has just gone up over the center, may be enough to tip it over the edge so to speak.

[orion]

I've been watching the RGB loop and it looks to me like the center is around 31.4N/79.6W. Also, looking at that same place on KCLX (Charleston) radar, it really looks like some spin there now... watch the last several frames...

http://orionweather.net/index.php?content=radar.html

What do y'all think?

[cpdaman]

LLC seems to be still in the process of developing (after the reform east) Right where orion pointed out. This would put it over the gulf stream so who knows, 94L has stolen most of the thunder today, so i will wait for more word from the pro-mets to be to gungho/ concerned about development

[cpdaman]

Matt are you saying that it is moving more now to the NE than it was earlyer today? I don't think it was moving much at all till now. I know I am crazy but I would love for this to come inland and give all that need this rain so badly. I was hoping for it to put the the fire out here in NC if not it can burn for a few months more up to a year they said. Not good.

this would be the reformation east, that the noaa area discussion (posted at 8am) was referring to

[KWT]

cpdaman, Derek said this looks a good un to go and develop, indeed he said the convective burst may well be enough (well paraphrased to something like that!) Still with the large burst developing over the center I think the system should be able to develop that LLC pretty quickly from now on.

[Derek Ortt]

us pro mets have been bullish on THIS system all day


we have just been ignored for people's desires to see development of the other system

[KWT]

Also just a note on the T numbers, I think you will see those numbers steadily increase as the night goes on, I just see no reason why this won't go on to be a player pretty soon...

[storms in NC]

When the Apple is ripe it will fall from the tree

[NC George]

It rained on me today on a drive back from the scrap yard. I thought the skies looked pretty tropical, and the rain was acting tropical as well. I got home around 6, turned on the news and they showed the radar, and I was like darn! There's a tropical system right off the SC coast. Had to go outside and put the top up on my Jeep, as it looks like we are in for some needed rain this weekend.

The local news also showed an enhanced WV shot. While most of NC was under dry air, the tropical moisture from the east was definitely punching it's way in, with a big finger of wet air over the area between the Neuse and Tar rivers. Also what seems to be a nearly continuous rain band forming from SC to the Raleigh area.