ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[Aric Dunn]

senorprer

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SKMG1



I'm not sold on that observation for being representative on the circulation. It appears that wind was influenced by some localized event (outflow, etc). It sticks out-of-place when you do a streamline analysis.

Speaking of which, I just sat down and drew up a streamline, using METAR/SPECI, Ships, Buoys, and cloud features and I'm getting the circulation around 80.8°. (Once again, this matches up well with SAB and TAFB's 18Z fix, at least longitudinally of 80.8° and 80.6°, respectively.)

hmmm.. i find those coordinates to be rather out of place ... since well on radar that exact location has long rainband right through the middle of it. that location is directly east of the FL GA border and is to far south

I made a typo on the latitude, but the longitude holds up. It's just south of the GA/SC border... ~31.5

i agree on the -31.5 but 80.8 is too far west. also i agree the center does not appear to be under that midlevel circ but it is however just on the western edge more like 79.6

[KWT]

I can't see anything that ar west on the higher resolution Sat imagery that would suggest that the center is that far west, lattiude seems pretty close, but I can see some low level clouds streaming towards the big convective blob which suggests to me is got to be further east then that esitmate.

Also looks like this is going to be TD3 if it can hold that convective burst very soon!

[Brent]

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 PM
THIS EVENING.

WOW.

['CaneFreak]

ABNT20 KNHC 182337
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-UPGRADED HURRICANE BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 640 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 PM
THIS EVENING. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

A DEPRESSION IS FORMING

[senorpepr]

i agree on the -31.5 but 80.8 is too far west. also i agree the center does not appear to be under that midlevel circ but it is however just on the western edge more like 79.6

The problem with 79.6 is that doesn't fit AT ALL with a LOT of observations. That's WAY too far east. Honestly, anything east of 80° is much too far east.

[ronjon]

Cycloneye, time to update the thread to TD No. 3.

ABNT20 KNHC 182337
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 PM THIS EVENING. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, time to update the thread to TD No. 3.

ABNT20 KNHC 182337
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 PM THIS EVENING. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Until its official.

[senorpepr]

Cycloneye, time to update the thread to TD No. 3.

ABNT20 KNHC 182337
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 PM THIS EVENING. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

No, it's NOT TD 3 yet. There is NO guidance so far that says it's 03L. "Forming" and "formed" are two seperate things.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 PM THIS EVENING. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

['CaneFreak]

i agree on the -31.5 but 80.8 is too far west. also i agree the center does not appear to be under that midlevel circ but it is however just on the western edge more like 79.6

The problem with 79.6 is that doesn't fit AT ALL with a LOT of observations. That's WAY too far east. Honestly, anything east of 80° is much too far east.

Look at this loop. Aric is right. The center HAS to be around 31.5 and 79.6. Just look at the loop and you will see.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rgb.html

It is under the convection. Not arguing with you just saying....take a look...

[KWT]

Well not quite yet still needs to hold the current look for a little while longer before they start with TD3 but that pretty much gives the heads up that we will have Td3 very soon.

senorpepr, I could buy a LLC say around 80.2 but I can't see any sort of rotation as far west as where you've put it on the higher reoslution sat imagery, I would guess right on the western side of that blob of convection.

[Aric Dunn]

i agree on the -31.5 but 80.8 is too far west. also i agree the center does not appear to be under that midlevel circ but it is however just on the western edge more like 79.6

The problem with 79.6 is that doesn't fit AT ALL with a LOT of observations. That's WAY too far east. Honestly, anything east of 80° is much too far east.

what observations.. there are only a couple rigs out there and they are much farther west and are at what 200 ft or something above sea level .. also the only buoy that is working is also in that general area of the rigs other than the st. augustine buoy show me those observations . i cant find anything that would give us a better location now if we had some observation on the east side of the system then we could conclude something a little more definite

[senorpepr]

i agree on the -31.5 but 80.8 is too far west. also i agree the center does not appear to be under that midlevel circ but it is however just on the western edge more like 79.6

The problem with 79.6 is that doesn't fit AT ALL with a LOT of observations. That's WAY too far east. Honestly, anything east of 80° is much too far east.

Look at this loop. Aric is right. The center HAS to be around 31.5 and 79.6. Just look at the loop and you will see.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rgb.html

It is under the convection. Not arguing with you just saying....take a look...

I'm looking at it. (Trust me... it's on several monitors here...) If you follow the cloud streets and utilize observations, the circulation is much further west.

['CaneFreak]

I'm looking at it. (Trust me... it's on several monitors here...) If you follow the cloud streets and utilize observations, the circulation is much further west.

Can you post some of the observations you are looking at because I am still not following you? I want to follow you, but I just can't see it.

[senorpepr]

i agree on the -31.5 but 80.8 is too far west. also i agree the center does not appear to be under that midlevel circ but it is however just on the western edge more like 79.6

The problem with 79.6 is that doesn't fit AT ALL with a LOT of observations. That's WAY too far east. Honestly, anything east of 80° is much too far east.

what observations.. there are only a couple rigs out there and they are much farther west and are at what 200 ft or something above sea level .. also the only buoy that is working is also in that general area of the rigs other than the st. augustine buoy show me those observations . i cant find anything that would give us a better location now if we had some observation on the east side of the system then we could conclude something a little more definite

There are about 25 observations in the region. Plus, using the inland obs, they pretty much fit in the streamlines as well.

[KWT]

I can see the cloud streets over Georgia heading Se which means the center is to the wes tof that but I think that may well be just a part of the broader circulation senorpepr rather then a indication of a tighter LLC because there is similar omtion of cloud movement on the far western side of the convective blob which may be where any tighter LLC is IMO.

[senorpepr]

I'm looking at it. (Trust me... it's on several monitors here...) If you follow the cloud streets and utilize observations, the circulation is much further west.

Can you post some of the observations you are looking at because I am still not following you? I want to follow you, but I just can't see it.

Unforatunately, I have no way to post a graphic. (I'm at work)

Also, if you're looking at the SSD loop's observations, you're looking at a SMALL handful of the available obs.

[Aric Dunn]

ok use what ever satellite floater you want and loop images after and before "21:15" just a couple of frames you can see part the circulation exposed bewteen 31.2 to 31.4 and about 79.6 to 79.9

[KWT]

The thing is I do see some hints of what senorpepr is saying in the cloud motion onland and near the coast but equally the cloud motion near the western and northern side of the convective blob also hint at a circulation there as well, I wonder if one of those is just an eddy?

Edit, actually I do see what senorpepr is talking about I can see a cloud street head westwards close to the convective cells that are going SE...hmm interesting!

[Aric Dunn]

I'm looking at it. (Trust me... it's on several monitors here...) If you follow the cloud streets and utilize observations, the circulation is much further west.

Can you post some of the observations you are looking at because I am still not following you? I want to follow you, but I just can't see it.

Unforatunately, I have no way to post a graphic. (I'm at work)

Also, if you're looking at the SSD loop's observations, you're looking at a SMALL handful of the available obs.

i dont use the ssd observations.. i look at each individual buoy , ship report , rig , anything that I an allowed to look at i do ..

you dont have to post graphics but tell me if they are ships or some secret buoy's what cause i can barely find anything around the area .. beside the one working rig and a few buoys that to far a away to determine any real location.

[brunota2003]

Perhaps there is multiple "circulations" rotating around one mean circulation?