ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[Aric Dunn]

Perhaps there is multiple "circulations" rotating around one mean circulation?

that is also possible...

[bvigal]

I just look at the radar, the center is easy to see. It is near Hilton Head Island.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=CLX&loop=yes

[Aric Dunn]

beside any of those observations can just as easily be invalid due to localized effects .. for instanse the St. Augustine buoy has a south wins which makes no sense..

['CaneFreak]

there is not enough data flowing in for me to be able to prove my point...you just have to look at satellite data. There are not enough buoys out there to prove my point.

[tolakram]

Couple of good loops.

Sat
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 171815.GIF

On that second one notice the lower clouds as the new blow up occurs. It appears ot me you can see the center changing positions.



Radar
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ar_floater

[jaxfladude]

So is the drought areas of NC and nearby areas about to get the rain they need? Need latest forecast track please....

[senorpepr]

i dont use the ssd observations.. i look at each individual buoy , ship report , rig , anything that I an allowed to look at i do ..

you dont have to post graphics but tell me if they are ships or some secret buoy's what cause i can barely find anything around the area .. beside the one working rig and a few buoys that to far a away to determine any real location.

There are a few representative METARs, several buoys/CMAN and ships

['CaneFreak]

beside any of those observations can just as easily be invalid due to localized effects .. for instanse the St. Augustine buoy has a south wins which makes no sense..

I could not agree more...I mean the center can't be inland over FL....thats the only way you could have a south wind...

[senorpepr]

beside any of those observations can just as easily be invalid due to localized effects .. for instanse the St. Augustine buoy has a south wins which makes no sense..

Wait... are you talking about SAUF1?

It's reporting NE winds.
CMAN 19004 SAUF1 46/// /0405 10267 20247 40155 53005 90000 222// 00270 333 91206 555 11005 22005 32349 405008 62359 035005 03005 310003 330003 35

[Aric Dunn]

beside any of those observations can just as easily be invalid due to localized effects .. for instanse the St. Augustine buoy has a south wins which makes no sense..

Wait... are you talking about SAUF1?

It's reporting NE winds.
CMAN 19004 SAUF1 46/// /0405 10267 20247 40155 53005 90000 222// 00270 333 91206 555 11005 22005 32349 405008 62359 035005 03005 310003 330003 35

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41012

[KatDaddy]

Here we go there is no doubt this will soon be a TS as convection is exploding over the center. Gotta give Joe B credit. He has been talking up this one for several days and yes he first thought it would be NE GOM but the GFS feedback was correct.

['CaneFreak]

Ok senorpeper...look at this...as you said SAUF1 is showing NE winds but look at GTXF1 just south of there...what does its say for obs? SW WINDS. I mean a 180 change in wind direction within a few miles? Come on. Has to be outflow boundaries and/or seabreeze interaction. Can't use land obs to prove your point.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
for GTXF1

[txwatcher91]

Radar shows rotation at 32.1N and 79W, I think this is where the LLC is moving to. I can see it beginning to wrap in this area and a circle of yellow developing while the orange cell to the south is rotating ENE.

[Brent]

So is the drought areas of NC and nearby areas about to get the rain they need? Need latest forecast track please....

Inland areas may be mostly dry if it stays near the coast like the consensus says.

HWFI is interesting...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_RENUMBER_al962008_al032008.ren
No details available yet.

[senorpepr]

beside any of those observations can just as easily be invalid due to localized effects .. for instanse the St. Augustine buoy has a south wins which makes no sense..

Wait... are you talking about SAUF1?

It's reporting NE winds.
CMAN 19004 SAUF1 46/// /0405 10267 20247 40155 53005 90000 222// 00270 333 91206 555 11005 22005 32349 405008 62359 035005 03005 310003 330003 35

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41012

Well, that observation actually sets well with the rest of the observations. There's a convergence asymptote nearby that it works with. EVB, DAB, PDNN, GTXF1, TTS easily confirm that 41012 is valid.

['CaneFreak]

I have a feeling those models are going to become useless over the next several days because the trough is not coming as fast as those models are projecting.

[cpdaman]

delete

[Ivanhater]

HWFI is interesting...

haaa..to say the least!

[MiamiensisWx]

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_RENUMBER_al962008_al032008.ren

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 03, 2008, DB, O, 2008071718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL032008
AL, 03, 2008071700, , BEST, 0, 290N, 805W, 15, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2008071706, , BEST, 0, 295N, 805W, 15, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2008071712, , BEST, 0, 301N, 805W, 15, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2008071718, , BEST, 0, 305N, 803W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 80, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2008071800, , BEST, 0, 308N, 804W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 80, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 03, 2008071806, , BEST, 0, 308N, 805W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 80, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 03, 2008071812, , BEST, 0, 311N, 805W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 90, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2008071818, , BEST, 0, 312N, 804W, 25, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 120, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

System is renumbered to TD 3 (AL3) in ATCF best track data, so an upgrade will occur at 11 p.m. EDT!