ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[jhamps10]

looks like Ships guidence takes it to just south of Corpus Cristi in this run.

[ronjon]

18Z GFDL run for 96L doesn't develop it - but it does develop 94L - heads straight for Houston.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008071818-invest96l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[jhamps10]

18Z GFDL run for 96L doesn't develop it - but it does develop 94L - heads straight for Houston.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008071818-invest96l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

link goes to 96L.

[Recurve]

Wow. No shear until late. But ships is suspect on shear prediction? Current shear looked strong ahead at CIMSS.

[Recurve]

18Z GFDL run for 96L doesn't develop it - but it does develop 94L - heads straight for Houston.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008071818-invest96l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

It sure does, but with max winds = 15 knots

[ronjon]

18Z GFDL run for 96L doesn't develop it - but it does develop 94L - heads straight for Houston.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008071818-invest96l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

link goes to 96L.

yes, run the link for 96L and see what happens with 94L.

[ronjon]

18Z GFDL run for 96L doesn't develop it - but it does develop 94L - heads straight for Houston.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008071818-invest96l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

It sure does, but with max winds = 15 knots

Ah...the 15 kts is for 96L. Looks like tropical storm conditions for 94L.

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z GFDL run for 96L doesn't develop it - but it does develop 94L - heads straight for Houston.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008071818-invest96l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

link goes to 96L.

yes, run the link for 96L and see what happens with 94L.

Look at the outer coarse grid...

Of course, lower resolution may effect the solution that the 96L model run has for 94L. The 94L run may be completely different, although I would guess with similar input data and boundary conditions from the GFS, they should be somewhat similar.

[Recurve]

18Z GFDL run for 96L doesn't develop it - but it does develop 94L - heads straight for Houston.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008071818-invest96l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

It sure does, but with max winds = 15 knots

Ah...the 15 kts is for 96L. Looks like tropical storm conditions for 94L.

Roger that, but it's not that strong, one pressure line, right?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I guess, for whatever reason, the good folks at the Global Fluid Dynamics Lab didn't run an 18Z model on 94L


For that matter, don't they also run the GFDL with NoGaps as initial and boundary conditions? How come I never seen that linked or displayed?

[Recurve]

It does't look to be under 1000 mb on that plot, but ICBW.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The lower resolution of the outer grid that the inner fine grid is nested within suggests inferring intensity of a different system from 96L/TD #3 may not be sound.

[Recurve]

The lower resolution of the outer grid that the inner fine grid is nested within suggests inferring intensity of a different system from 96L/TD #3 may not be sound.

True too. The track is enough to digest at this point.

[Wx_Warrior]

Even EURO has way south...
[url]
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html[/url]

[Ed Mahmoud]

3 times now, in 4 days, I was sure it would become a TD and said so on this thread.


Based on Wxman57 and Derek's assesments, and the apparent lack of a surface circulation, I'm starting to doubt. It'll probably flare up again tonight, the plane will go in tomorrow, and probably found nothing again.


Just a hunch.

But an open wave with a deep surge of moisture is just what Texas needs now.



GFS at 24 hours, gentle wave near Jamaica.


The GFS hasn't done badly at all so far in 2008...


bed time.

The wave does sharpen a bit at 48 hours as it is crossing the Yucatan. But still no TD

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 00, 66 hr

[Duddy]

Dangit, I'll be staying at the Sheraton next to the Galleria all next week for business. It's hard enough driving in that area without constant heavy rains and wind.

[srainhoutx]

Been a long haul with 94L Ed. Don't like seeing the shift back to the N this run. The GOM may well be were it finally develops.

[Wx_Warrior]

84

[Wx_Warrior]

106 hr-GFS

Land ho - Brownsville - Tons of rain for Tx coast!!!