ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[CrazyC83]

First local statement I've seen. Here we go.


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
836 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008
NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-190400-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLIAMSTON...ROBERSONVILLE...
GREENVILLE...PLYMOUTH...COLUMBIA...SNOW HILL...HOOKERTON...
WASHINGTON...RIVER ROAD...WALLACE...WARSAW...ROSE HILL...
KENANSVILLE...BEULAVILLE...MAGNOLIA...KINSTON...MAYSVILLE...
POLLOCKSVILLE...NEW BERN...HAVELOCK...ORIENTAL...ALLIANCE...
BAYBORO...ARAPAHOE...MINNESOTT BEACH...VANDEMERE...STONEWALL...
MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT...EMERALD ISLE...NEWPORT...
JACKSONVILLE...KILL DEVIL HILLS...KITTY HAWK...NAGS HEAD...
SOUTHERN SHORES
836 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008
...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED...

SATELLITE SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE THIS
SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT.

ALL INTEREST ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. RESIDENTS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SHOULD PREPARE FOR DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

THIS IS THE TIME TO REVIEW YOUR FAMILY DISASTER PLAN.

Would be Me. I hope the Model GLF is right and go inland for all to get rain.

In that case, you should hope for a quick left turn and a landfall tomorrow.

[brunota2003]

I sent an e-mail to MHX. Partly because of some stuff dealing with my spotter number, but also threw in a congrats on being ahead of the game and getting the message out now, versus waiting until an upgrade (even if it does merely follow the TWO).

Better now than later.

[stormchazer]

SWFMD has this listed as Storm 03 now...

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pagei ... ema=PORTAL

Click Storm 03

Upgrade coming?

[Chacor]

SWFMD has this listed as Storm 03 now...

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pagei ... ema=PORTAL

Upgrade coming?

Already reflected in the ATCF file.

[brunota2003]

Yes, most likely an upgrade is coming at 11 p.m.

[RL3AO]

Click Storm 03

Upgrade coming?

Yes. TD3 at 11.

[Recurve]

Really? I've just given up on 94L for tonight -- so now I'll be watching this.

Since the models are in pretty good agreement about a NE track, maybe Florida can take a nap.


[edit]

[Recurve]

Yep, they say "is forming"

Code: Select all

1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 PM
THIS EVENING.  ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

[storms in NC]

Good night all. I will be up early. I alway am.
Now be good you hear.LOL

[Mecklenburg]

it should be a fishie

[Downdraft]

it should be a fishie

Great the best kind! Love it when they churn up the Atlantic nobody wants a land falling hurricane do they?

[Chacor]

it should be a fishie

Do you have anything to back that up? It's already affecting land.

[OuterBanker]

Cyclone, does a new thread start when officially named TD3?

[Squarethecircle]

Yes, and most models show it affecting the Carolinas later in life.

[storms in NC]

I seen this out of NWC in Raleigh Was a good read

FXUS62 KRAH 190018
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
818 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008



.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: THE CHARACTERISTICS...
EVOLUTION... AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER EAST OF SAVANNAH
ARE THE BIG QUESTION MARKS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CONCERNING ANY POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
WITH THE WESTERLIES WELL DISPLACED TO THE NORTH... AND NO CLEAR
TREND WITH MARKEDLY RISING OR FALLING HEIGHTS WITH THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE OFFSHORE WESTERN ATLANTIC... THE STEERING OF THIS
LOW IS LIABLE TO BE VERY WEAK AND SUBJECT TO THE WHIMS OF SUBTLE
FEATURES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO DETECT AT THIS TIME RANGE. THE LATEST
NAM... WHICH TRACKS THE LOW UP THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM...
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE THAN THE GFS WHICH TRACKS IT UP THROUGH
EASTERN NC SUNDAY... AND WHICH SEEMS TO ABSORB THE LOW TOO QUICKLY
INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG I-80.
THE 00Z/18 ECMWF SUPPORTS A TRACK JUST OFF THE COAST AS WELL. BUT...
IT MUST BE NOTED THAT IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES STRENGTHEN A BIT...
IT COULD EASILY SHOVE THE LOW TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. EITHER
WAY... THE PRECIP PATTERN NOTED ON THE MODELS AND THAT TYPICALLY
SEEN WITH SUCH SYSTEMS WITH NEARSHORE TRACKS WOULD FAVOR A CHANCE OF
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY... WITH LESSER TO NO CHANCE WELL
INLAND OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT... WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. ALSO FACTORING AGAINST
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WESTERN CWA ARE THE MID LEVEL RIDGING NOSING
IN FROM THE WSW AS WELL AS LIGHT DIFFLUENT AND DOWNSLOPE 850 MB
FLOW... LIKELY TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES YET DRY THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. EXPECT MILD LOWS OF 69-74... THEN HIGHS SUNDAY OF 91-96 WITH
THE WARMER READINGS IN THE WESTERN CWA BENEATH SUBSIDENCE AND PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE.

[storms in NC]

000
FXUS62 KILM 182331
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
730 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE FINALLY EXITING TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER
NORTH CAROLINA ON TUESDAY...WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE ITS GENERALLY NWRD MVMNT OVERNIGHT. GFS
KEEPS THE LOW ALONG ON JUST INLAND OF THE SC COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE
THE NAM KEEPS THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH SCENARIOS WOULD PROVIDE ABUNDANT PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
COAST...BUT HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR INLAND AREAS. THE GFS SOLUTION
RESULTS IN PRECIP BEING SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND. THE GFS HAS
SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM SO WENT WITH A BLEND
OF THE 2 SOLUTIONS BUT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE WEIGHTING GIVEN TO THE
GFS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW DEEP
MOISTURE ARRIVING OVERNIGHT WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. DYNAMICS REMAIN LIMITED WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER OR
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. CLOUDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND GOOD
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO(MID 70S) FOR MOST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SHORT TERM HINGES ON DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRESENTLY OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA. TPC IS
LOOKING CLOSELY AT THIS SYSTEM AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THIS MAY BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW. UNTIL A DECISION IS MADE ON THAT HAVE LEANED ON THE NAM
FOR WINDS AS ITS TRACK UP THE COAST LOOKED MORE REALISTIC THAN THE
GFS PARTIAL OVERLAND SOLUTION. PLUS IT IS MORE IN LINE WITH HPC
PROGS. THIS WILL BRING US ANOTHER DAY OF LIKELY POPS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST...FOR SATURDAY. AS THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY A TROPICAL
AIRMASS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT
COULD SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL QPF VALUES...1 TO 3 INCHES...IN SOME
LOCATIONS. POPS AND QPF TREND DOWN SUNDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES NE AND
EXITS THE AREA. ALL THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING UPON WHAT TPC
DECIDES TO DO.

[Bane]

the ilm office didn't update their discussion from 3pm, other than the aviation section. it'll be interesting to see if they add more detail to the next one, which should come out around midnight.

[Chacor]

Cyclone, does a new thread start when officially named TD3?

We no longer start new threads for new storms, it just continues in the same thread.

[Mecklenburg]

no upgrade...

[Derek Ortt]

I wonder why NRL never updated this with noname?

Was there a late reversal or something?