ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Recurve]

Still bears watching. You never know with these things.

Yes yes. Too far out for us to really see if the gomex is safe. Unless a pro wants to proclaim it, but I think they know better.

[Aric Dunn]

it really needs to slow down .. that would help

[RattleMan]

Of course, that is if it even develops!

How old is that QuikSat?

QuikSCAT was launched June 19, 1999.

[Recurve]

So for those just tuning in. Man, there's some nice looking clouds in the caribbean up by the greater antilles. Circulation has pulled away from south america, but development isn't really popping. Pros are seeing No LLC. This is probably not one to stay up all night for the TD declaration.

Down the line, who knows. Last GFDL model run was for 96L, not 94L, but shows something (94L) heading toward Houston. Intensity is speculative.

[Derek Ortt]

what happened between yesterday and today was that there was a broad, but closed LLC on Thursday. Despite the satellite signature improving on Friday, the low has dissipated and there is only a very weak wave remaining based upon the QS data

The forward speed is not causing a problem... we should discount that right now

based upon the evening data... if I had to make a yes or no call... I'd be saying no based upon the developments today

[mattpetre]

Unprofessional opinion disclaimer...

It's dead Jim!

Just kidding... still a firm believer that 94L will reach Cat 3 strength before it's ultimate (long from now) demise. I'm probably wrong according to most, but the conditions this wave is about to encounter are less than unfavorable.

[Chacor]

Of course, that is if it even develops!

How old is that QuikSat?

QuikSCAT was launched June 19, 1999.

I think she was asking about the age of the pass. The pass was at 2250 UTC, which means about three hours ago.

[mvtrucking]

Is it being torn apart? Looks terrible to me..Good night all.

[Derek Ortt]

Unprofessional opinion disclaimer...

It's dead Jim!

Just kidding... still a firm believer that 94L will reach Cat 3 strength before it's ultimate (long from now) demise. I'm probably wrong according to most, but the conditions this wave is about to encounter are less than unfavorable.

there has to be something to develop.

Does not matter how favorable conditions are... if there is not a surface feature, there will be no development. And QS does not exactly show much of a surface feature (much to my surprise... I thought there was a sharp trough)

[Derek Ortt]

geez...


we actually have a TROPICAL CYCLONE less than 100 miles from the USA. And some who wishcast still are not satisified...

[HouTXmetro]

Unprofessional opinion disclaimer...

It's dead Jim!

Just kidding... still a firm believer that 94L will reach Cat 3 strength before it's ultimate (long from now) demise. I'm probably wrong according to most, but the conditions this wave is about to encounter are less than unfavorable.

Idunno, I hope it just fizzles immediately because I have been losing sleep already tracking this mess.

[KatDaddy]

Some people are never happy Dortt. Crazy.

[KatDaddy]

Boy that was a simple statement. Hmmmmmmmmmm time for bed.

[cycloneye]

Derek,in the tropics,anything can happen and the unexpected occurs many times.That is why its not easy to forecast tropical weather as many variables occur that changes a forecast.

[Sanibel]

You can see that mid-level circulation still turning on shortwave at 14.8N-73.8W but it is now at the lower end of the convection and looks like it might be left behind. Track is nearly west.

The healthy ULL is taking this thing to task and we could see it crash and burn. It has good curvature but it won't develop as long as the ULL is taking its top off. Plus 95L might be a little too close too soon.

The only chance for this thing is past the ULL - if it makes it there.

[HURAKAN]

There is still enough time for a LLC to develop, unlike what happened to 95L.

[Derek Ortt]

but now it is looking more and more likely that it wont develop until it moves into the Gulf of Mexico

And I'd give it a 30-40% chance of developing in the Gulf

[Sanibel]

Well, July in the Caribbean is known for this. Interesting to see if 94L keeps its spunk.

[srainhoutx]

Has been an interesting vortex to watch these past few days. Good night...

[gatorcane]

indeed but look how the energy is moving more north....the ULL is causing most of it to head towards the NW Caribbean......

Will it even make it into the Western GOM? Interesting but not surprising.