ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly
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- gatorcane
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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:we must remember that the Caribbean in the last 10 days of July is the single least favorable part of the basin climatologically. I think the only storm to form in the Carib during this time was Cesar in 1996... and that formed in the far eastern Caribbean
Good point Derek --- Cesar in 1996 was the exception. July just isn't a good month for systems in the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Central Caribbean
Looks like it ran headlong into the June conditions in this area. It's really being taken apart right now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Central Caribbean
what satellites are you guys viewing? I cant access NHC right now for osme reason.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Central Caribbean

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Willing to bet it's more than a shadow by midday tomorrow. There are, sad to say, favorable conditions in its future. I don't want to see this become a hurricane, but long term it's much more of a concern than TD3 and we all know that. Honestly I think we all get lulled into the same trance and forget just how much potential is still there. If this thing had just popped out of nowhere everyone would be all over its development. I know it's had a long road to hoe at this point, but conditions right now are getting better for 94L than they've ever been in its lifecycle. I am hoping that it is only a GOM storm that get's cutoff by another strong low, we'll have to wait till Tuesday or Wednesday to find that out though.
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- wx247
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Re:
mattpetre wrote:Willing to bet it's more than a shadow by midday tomorrow. There are, sad to say, favorable conditions in its future. I don't want to see this become a hurricane, but long term it's much more of a concern than TD3 and we all know that. Honestly I think we all get lulled into the same trance and forget just how much potential is still there. If this thing had just popped out of nowhere everyone would be all over its development. I know it's had a long road to hoe at this point, but conditions right now are getting better for 94L than they've ever been in its lifecycle. I am hoping that it is only a GOM storm that get's cutoff by another strong low, we'll have to wait till Tuesday or Wednesday to find that out though.
What are you willing to bet? And define...shadow.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Central Caribbean
3 times now, in 4 days, I was sure it would become a TD and said so on this thread.
Based on Wxman57 and Derek's assesments, and the apparent lack of a surface circulation, I'm starting to doubt. It'll probably flare up again tonight, the plane will go in tomorrow, and probably found nothing again.
Just a hunch.
But an open wave with a deep surge of moisture is just what Texas needs now.
Based on Wxman57 and Derek's assesments, and the apparent lack of a surface circulation, I'm starting to doubt. It'll probably flare up again tonight, the plane will go in tomorrow, and probably found nothing again.
Just a hunch.
But an open wave with a deep surge of moisture is just what Texas needs now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Central Caribbean
That's what happens when most put the cart before the horse. Live through one (Rita, et al) and most opinions will change.
Getting sheared tonight boys/girls. Let's hope, that if it does make it thru the Carib, it would be a giant rain maker.
Getting sheared tonight boys/girls. Let's hope, that if it does make it thru the Carib, it would be a giant rain maker.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Central Caribbean
bed time now. But I'd bet a fair amount of money this won't come close in any way to Rita, as far as being a major system. That is, of course, unofficial and not endorsed by Storm2K, but a Claudette seems worst case scenario, and an open wave seems as likely as a TD or TS.
See 94L model thread, new GFS not enthusiastic.
And I suspect whatever might form or not form is bound mainly South of the Border, down Mexico way. But the moisture surge will be welcome. If we're lucky it won't develop, because that would tend to concentrate the rain nearer any center and limit rain in Houston area. And I'm running my sprinkler a lot.
See 94L model thread, new GFS not enthusiastic.
And I suspect whatever might form or not form is bound mainly South of the Border, down Mexico way. But the moisture surge will be welcome. If we're lucky it won't develop, because that would tend to concentrate the rain nearer any center and limit rain in Houston area. And I'm running my sprinkler a lot.
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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:we must remember that the Caribbean in the last 10 days of July is the single least favorable part of the basin climatologically. I think the only storm to form in the Carib during this time was Cesar in 1996... and that formed in the far eastern Caribbean
Not trying to come off as contradicting anything you've said are saying nor am I implying that you're wrong about anything. But hasn't the general overall climate changed to be more supportive for developing systems between now and then?
Not really directly linking my question to this system, just looking for your professional view on the theory that over time we're starting to get earlier starting, more active and longer lasting hurricane seasons.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Central Caribbean
Talk about hyping, this will not become a Rita, Katrina, Andrew, Wilma, Camille, Andrey, Lili, Gilbert, Allen, or any of those storms. If it doe's I will eat crow.
No need to hype up the wave. I will admit that there is some chance of a weak cyclone once into the Gulf, but lets not get ahead of our selfs with this system.
Have a good night.
No need to hype up the wave. I will admit that there is some chance of a weak cyclone once into the Gulf, but lets not get ahead of our selfs with this system.
Have a good night.
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Re: Re:
Smurfwicked wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:we must remember that the Caribbean in the last 10 days of July is the single least favorable part of the basin climatologically. I think the only storm to form in the Carib during this time was Cesar in 1996... and that formed in the far eastern Caribbean
Not trying to come off as contradicting anything you've said are saying nor am I implying that you're wrong about anything. But hasn't the general overall climate changed to be more supportive for developing systems between now and then?
Not really directly linking my question to this system, just looking for your professional view on the theory that over time we're starting to get earlier starting, more active and longer lasting hurricane seasons.
However, the Caribbean in late July has always remained quite hostile toward formation
what there is a 30-40 percent chance of occurring is for an evolution similar to that of Gert in 2005. Organization in the BOC followed by a Mexican landfall
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Central Caribbean
94L's convection is being enhanced by the ULL over Cuba. Nice mid level spin on IR tonight. We shall see if it can establish a surface circulation on Saturday.......MGC
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