ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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Derek Ortt

#2881 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Jul 18, 2008 9:45 pm

we must remember that the Caribbean in the last 10 days of July is the single least favorable part of the basin climatologically. I think the only storm to form in the Carib during this time was Cesar in 1996... and that formed in the far eastern Caribbean
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Re:

#2882 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 18, 2008 9:46 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:we must remember that the Caribbean in the last 10 days of July is the single least favorable part of the basin climatologically. I think the only storm to form in the Carib during this time was Cesar in 1996... and that formed in the far eastern Caribbean


Good point Derek --- Cesar in 1996 was the exception. July just isn't a good month for systems in the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Central Caribbean

#2883 Postby Sanibel » Fri Jul 18, 2008 9:55 pm

Looks like it ran headlong into the June conditions in this area. It's really being taken apart right now.
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#2884 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Jul 18, 2008 9:57 pm

I have to revise my opinion. Earlier I said hurricane before Yucatan.
But now, no more than a depression or storm, and that is if
the shear lets up.

The tropics are really tough to predict.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Central Caribbean

#2885 Postby Sanibel » Fri Jul 18, 2008 10:01 pm

The ULL is ripping 94L apart and venting 96L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Central Caribbean

#2886 Postby Innotech » Fri Jul 18, 2008 10:05 pm

what satellites are you guys viewing? I cant access NHC right now for osme reason.
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Derek Ortt

#2887 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Jul 18, 2008 10:07 pm

the UL is NOT in any way ripping up 94L

The problem is the surface feature is nearly gone. We actually have a fairly favorable upper environment for once for the system... it just was unable to survive the unfavorable conditions the past couple of days.
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#2888 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Jul 18, 2008 10:07 pm

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#2889 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Jul 18, 2008 10:07 pm

I just do a google search for "caribbean infrared" and click
the first link to get a loop.
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#2890 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 18, 2008 10:13 pm

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Central Caribbean

#2891 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 18, 2008 10:16 pm

:uarrow: That is shadow of the system that was early this morning.
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#2892 Postby mattpetre » Fri Jul 18, 2008 10:21 pm

Willing to bet it's more than a shadow by midday tomorrow. There are, sad to say, favorable conditions in its future. I don't want to see this become a hurricane, but long term it's much more of a concern than TD3 and we all know that. Honestly I think we all get lulled into the same trance and forget just how much potential is still there. If this thing had just popped out of nowhere everyone would be all over its development. I know it's had a long road to hoe at this point, but conditions right now are getting better for 94L than they've ever been in its lifecycle. I am hoping that it is only a GOM storm that get's cutoff by another strong low, we'll have to wait till Tuesday or Wednesday to find that out though.
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Re:

#2893 Postby wx247 » Fri Jul 18, 2008 10:33 pm

mattpetre wrote:Willing to bet it's more than a shadow by midday tomorrow. There are, sad to say, favorable conditions in its future. I don't want to see this become a hurricane, but long term it's much more of a concern than TD3 and we all know that. Honestly I think we all get lulled into the same trance and forget just how much potential is still there. If this thing had just popped out of nowhere everyone would be all over its development. I know it's had a long road to hoe at this point, but conditions right now are getting better for 94L than they've ever been in its lifecycle. I am hoping that it is only a GOM storm that get's cutoff by another strong low, we'll have to wait till Tuesday or Wednesday to find that out though.


What are you willing to bet? And define...shadow. ;)
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Central Caribbean

#2894 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Jul 18, 2008 10:38 pm

3 times now, in 4 days, I was sure it would become a TD and said so on this thread.


Based on Wxman57 and Derek's assesments, and the apparent lack of a surface circulation, I'm starting to doubt. It'll probably flare up again tonight, the plane will go in tomorrow, and probably found nothing again.


Just a hunch.

But an open wave with a deep surge of moisture is just what Texas needs now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Central Caribbean

#2895 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Jul 18, 2008 10:42 pm

That's what happens when most put the cart before the horse. Live through one (Rita, et al) and most opinions will change.

Getting sheared tonight boys/girls. Let's hope, that if it does make it thru the Carib, it would be a giant rain maker.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Central Caribbean

#2896 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Jul 18, 2008 10:53 pm

bed time now. But I'd bet a fair amount of money this won't come close in any way to Rita, as far as being a major system. That is, of course, unofficial and not endorsed by Storm2K, but a Claudette seems worst case scenario, and an open wave seems as likely as a TD or TS.
See 94L model thread, new GFS not enthusiastic.

And I suspect whatever might form or not form is bound mainly South of the Border, down Mexico way. But the moisture surge will be welcome. If we're lucky it won't develop, because that would tend to concentrate the rain nearer any center and limit rain in Houston area. And I'm running my sprinkler a lot.
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Re:

#2897 Postby Smurfwicked » Fri Jul 18, 2008 10:59 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:we must remember that the Caribbean in the last 10 days of July is the single least favorable part of the basin climatologically. I think the only storm to form in the Carib during this time was Cesar in 1996... and that formed in the far eastern Caribbean


Not trying to come off as contradicting anything you've said are saying nor am I implying that you're wrong about anything. But hasn't the general overall climate changed to be more supportive for developing systems between now and then?

Not really directly linking my question to this system, just looking for your professional view on the theory that over time we're starting to get earlier starting, more active and longer lasting hurricane seasons.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Central Caribbean

#2898 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jul 18, 2008 11:01 pm

Talk about hyping, this will not become a Rita, Katrina, Andrew, Wilma, Camille, Andrey, Lili, Gilbert, Allen, or any of those storms. If it doe's I will eat crow.

No need to hype up the wave. I will admit that there is some chance of a weak cyclone once into the Gulf, but lets not get ahead of our selfs with this system.

Have a good night.
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Derek Ortt

Re: Re:

#2899 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Jul 18, 2008 11:05 pm

Smurfwicked wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:we must remember that the Caribbean in the last 10 days of July is the single least favorable part of the basin climatologically. I think the only storm to form in the Carib during this time was Cesar in 1996... and that formed in the far eastern Caribbean


Not trying to come off as contradicting anything you've said are saying nor am I implying that you're wrong about anything. But hasn't the general overall climate changed to be more supportive for developing systems between now and then?

Not really directly linking my question to this system, just looking for your professional view on the theory that over time we're starting to get earlier starting, more active and longer lasting hurricane seasons.


However, the Caribbean in late July has always remained quite hostile toward formation

what there is a 30-40 percent chance of occurring is for an evolution similar to that of Gert in 2005. Organization in the BOC followed by a Mexican landfall
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Central Caribbean

#2900 Postby MGC » Fri Jul 18, 2008 11:54 pm

94L's convection is being enhanced by the ULL over Cuba. Nice mid level spin on IR tonight. We shall see if it can establish a surface circulation on Saturday.......MGC
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