ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[wxman57]

So the Warning areas can expect tropical storm conditions- will
this system help with the drought there?

Probably no TS winds west of the track, and not much rain west of the track along the coast. Too much dry air flowing in from the Carolinas.

[Bane]

Nope, only through 72 hours, absorbed by 96.

whoops, you're right. i should have looked closer.

[Chacor]

If anyone's interested, I'm hoping to make the forecasting contest forum have a new permanent fixture in the form of a 'prediction league', so to speak.

The thread for 03L is here: viewtopic.php?f=25&t=101972

It's just for fun, and will not dabble in anything to do with damage or deaths out of respect.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I noticed the discussion mentioned faulty SST data in SHIPS. I wonder what SHIPs would have predicted with the correct SSTs.

Just checked, no Bastardi update since 3 pm EDT.

[cpdaman]

well con's for growth are dry air on western side (duh) and it is west of the gulf stream so water temps are about 82 instead of 86 and ( deeper w/ warm water)

[brunota2003]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

CORRECTED TO ALTER WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT
NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

[cpdaman]

you know it's interesting , i wonder if the center is done reforming

should it move even further east it would be over the gulf stream , the reason i say this is that it doesn't seem terribly organized at the surface and the deepest convection is firing to the east of the last reported co-ordinates.

[HURAKAN]

Today's RECON should be interesting. Good night!

[Mecklenburg]

this will not become cristobal, it will just remain a weak TD...

[vbhoutex]

this will not become cristobal, it will just remain a weak TD...

A bold statement to make without any back up. What is your reasoning?

[Bane]

this will not become cristobal, it will just remain a weak TD...

i would love to know your reasoning as well. you previously stated this one would be a fish.

[boca]

Didn't they call for some strengthening on the 11pm advisory.So if your going to say that put the disclaimer first.I think it looks pretty good signature and this should possibly become Cristobal tomorrow.

[Brent]

It looks good on satellite with a nice convective blowup. I think odds are pretty good this will be Cristobal tomorrow if this continues.

[funster]

Didn't they call for some strengthening on the 11pm advisory.So if your going to say that put the disclaimer first.I think it looks pretty good signature and this should possibly become Cristobal tomorrow.

They did call for some strengthening but not much beyond a weak TS. In the discussion the NHC even said the computer models don't stengthen this to a TS. Dry air would be a factor that inhibits strengthening.

Except for the
climatology and persistence model shifor...none of the intensity
guidance makes the system a tropical storm. However...the SHIPS
forecast seems to be based on SSTs that look at least 1c cooler
than what the coastal buoys are reporting right now...so i'm going
to go a little above that guidance and show just enough
strengthening to make the system a tropical storm.

[brunota2003]

But at the same time, the SHIPS model showed SST's as a degree lower than what they really are.

[MGC]

I'm not surprised by the upgrade tonight. Earlier in the day I thought 96L would become a TD and have a shot at becoming a TS. The long range radar out of Charleston is showing TD3 circulation quite well with a strong band of convection on the east side of the LLCC. TD3 should continue to slowly strengthen over night. Recon tomorrow could find a minimal TS....MGC

[cpdaman]

nice little convective band off central florida getting sucked into td 3

anyone think this could reform again?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think with favorable upper level conditions
and with flare ups this could become TS Cristobal
and I agree with the NHC forecast.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I like the "Funktop" color scheme. Since they did something to IR Channel 2, it seems easier to follow lower cloud motions.


As mentioned before, whether this makes landfall or not will be important, in my humble opinion, as dry air will make this a lopsided depression or storm, and with minimal shower activity East of the center to mix down stronger winds aloft, if this stays just offshore primary affects on land will be scattered showers and breezy weather. The heavy rain and stronger winds will be on the East side.



Unofficial, and not endorsed by Storm2K.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

19/0545 UTC 31.8N 79.4W T2.0/2.0 03L -- Atlantic Ocean