ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[boca]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking at this tonight I see a lot of reds on the south end of this mess along with the mid level spin at 14n and 75w. I think we'll have a depression out of this by tomorrow at 11am at the earliest.

[Wx_Warrior]

I dont see it but who knows? Maybe afternoon-ish if any.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ok, haven't quite gone to bed yet.

The databouy near 15ºN, 75ºW appears to be near wherever what spin that still exists is on the satellite image.

But the lowest pressure passed about 5 hours ago, and winds are ESE. Wind shift when the pressure bottomed was from just North of due East to just South of due East. The wave does not have that sharp a wind shift.

Pressure plot:



I would now say this will not develop in the next day, even if another flare up of early morning storms tries to sucker me into going 0/4. I have posted 3 times in 4 days this will be a TD today, and am perfect at being wrong. Now I will go 1/5, bat .200, by finally predicting this isn't going to be a TD today.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TD 3 may weaken the ridge, and also, the ULL may pull 94L
further north than the current consensus:

[coreyl]

What kind of environment will the invest be entering in the day or two?

[lrak]

I need some doughnuts.

[Wx_Warrior]

We'll see what the next EURO in an hour or so has to say about this blob.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It may not be dead, but the drug induced coma doesn't look to end in the next day...

[Wx_Warrior]

I like the chances of survival of the blob...Can't wait until the "it's headed for Galveston" posts are made...

Over/under 2:30 pm Saturday -

[lrak]

I like the chances of survival of the blob...Can't wait until the "it's headed for Galveston" posts are made...

Over/under 2:30 pm Saturday -

Hmm, poking a Galvestonian with a spoon is illegal eh?

And didn't I read "Land ho - Brownsville" somewhere?

[Ivanhater]

Well dont look now but 00z GFDL has this hitting Houston as a cat 5!

[jasons2k]

It still seems to be running on the northern side of the models...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

[RattleMan]

Well dont look now but 00z GFDL has this hitting Houston as a cat 5!

Indeed.

[southerngale]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 21N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N MOVING WNW 15-20 KT. A TROPICAL CYCLONE
COULD FORM AT ANY TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WNW. ALL
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 71W-77W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM
13N-15N BETWEEN 73W-75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N
COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 72W-74W.

[KWT]

Well this looks a bit o a mess once atgain just when it looks like it was clsoe to getting going the convection has weakened in a big way once again. There probably is still a MLC but its not quite as close as it was yesterday.
However at least its looking odds on that we will see this making the GoM or the BoC where there probably is a better set-up for this wave to do something in.

[Derek Ortt]

based upon the way it looks this morning, recon maybe should be cancelled. Not much to investigate

[Thunder44]

If there is a LLC, it is moving south of buoy 42058:

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

I don't really think there is one, however.

[Derek Ortt]

one thing worth noting... even the GFDL and HWRF absurred forecasts do not spin this up into a cyclone for another 48 hours

[Nimbus]

Looks pretty sheared out this morning, the ULL to its NW has helped hinder development short term.

Although most of the sheared convection is further west any kind of center is probably still back near 14.5 N 75W.

The ULL that has been providing shear looks like it is weakening and rolling west, as the shear drops we will get a better idea of where a LLC is forming.

They probably won't send recon out till the next strong convective cycle.