ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[brunota2003]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=1

100 search from the points provided by the Dvorak Numbers...one ship 47 nm? away reporting sustained winds of 27.1 knots...however quality control, as look at the pressure: 29.83" or 1010 millibars.

Possible the center is 1009 or 1010? Yes...do I believe it? No.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC is becoming stronger by the minute, with the convection now forming into a "cdo" like feature. I expect a tropical storm when recon goe's in.

[KWT]

Still got pretty deep convection above the center with circulation underneath that deep convection. It doesn't look at all bad now and its a little further east then 12hrs ago. Offical forecast only goes for slight strengthening and the SHIPS don't really do anything with this but I wouldn't be surprised if recon does find minimal TS winds in this system.

[brunota2003]

The new 5 a.m. EDT cone has TD3 crossing extreme eastern Cateret County and moving into the Outer Banks.

[brunota2003]

Buoy:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004

Winds sustained at 23 knots (supporting the 25 knot intensity), pressure of 29.79" (just under 1009 millibars, so like 1008.99999).

Distance away from the center was roughly 17 miles when I did the search, so since the pressure is falling, assuming the center is approaching and should see a wind shift within the next few hours.

EDIT to correct 30 to 17 miles

[KWT]

It does get pretty close brunota2003 to the outer banks on the new offical run, certainly is close enough to justify a TS warning IMO.

[brunota2003]

Here is the 100 mile search, using the 5 a.m. position:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=1

[wxman57]

The best thing about this storm is I won't have to say "Krees-TOE'-bahl" very much when talking to clients this year. It won't be around long.

[HURAKAN]

I don't have a problem saying Cristóbal!

[storms in NC]

What a shame. We have the perfect setup to get some good rain and it stays off shore. I guess God didn't want the farms to have any good rain. With little wind ect.. Oh well see what happens today. Right now sun is up and birds are a singing away. They took down any warnings down from last night. Don't even have any thing along the beaches.weird.From the discussion it will be gone by Monday. It goes Poof.

Oh and good morning all.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
420 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. WARM AND DRY
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY AS IT PARALLELS THE COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER TO SURF CITY AND THIS INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF PENDER...NEW
HANOVER...BRUNSWICK...HORRY AND GEORGETOWN. THE HEAVIEST OF RAINFALL
WILL FALL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME
HEAVIER RAIN ONSHORE. SE TO E WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND
THIS EVE AND THEN BACK TO NE AND THEN N TONIGHT. SOME MINOR BEACH
EROSION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO AROUND THREE INCHES COULD FALL.
THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH
THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS W OF INTERSTATE 95. SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3AM SAT...
DRY AIR WILL BE WRAPPING IN FROM THE W BEHIND EXITING TROPICAL
SYSTEM SUN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUDS/POPS
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD TURN OUT SUNNY AND QUITE
WARM. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THERMAL RIDGE
BUILDING UP THE EAST COAST..ALTHOUGH MOS GUIDANCE IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT. WITH SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE COAST SEE NO REASON
90S SHOULD NOT OCCUR UP AND DOWN THE COAST AND UPPER 90S INLAND.
FCST SOUNDINGS TOO DRY BOTH AFTERNOONS TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP
DESPITE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH.

&&

[cpdaman]

how convenient that our closest bouy has not reported in the last 2 plus hours

radar shows low SSE of wilmington? i just woke up so perhaps we shall see.

can any promets find a center on this mess? NHC says it had difficulty per 5 am update

[Emmett_Brown]

Center is hard to find on radar, but the blob as a whole is clearly rotating, so this is still in its early formative stages. Movement seems stationary over the past couple of hours.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=CLX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[cpdaman]

pressure bottomed on bouy 41004 around 5 am at 29.79 now rose to 29.83 and wind went from ese/e to e/ene let me put on my thinking cap (she has probably moved up from sw of the bouy to a position now somewhere ESE of the bouy. bouy locale is 32.5 79.1 appox.

does that make sense

[cycloneye]

First visible pic

[cpdaman]

time to play pin the tail on the center

recon will be much anticipated!

[cycloneye]

Maximun winds haved increased to 35 mph per 8 AM intermidiate advisory.

[storms in NC]

US Watch/Warning
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



000
WTNT33 KNHC 191146
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS A LITTLE....

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 285 MILES...455 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO
THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA.

RADAR DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN CHARLESTON
AND WILMINGTON INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...32.3 N...79.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[cycloneye]

Lets not post the texts of the advisories here as there is a thread for those.

[SkyDragon]

This is the most interesting weekend until at least late August or September !

[hurricanefloyd5]

The new 5 a.m. EDT cone has TD3 crossing extreme eastern Cateret County and moving into the Outer Banks.

they showed the same thing at 11 pm last night no big change there!!!!!!!!!