ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Ed Mahmoud]

This doesn't apply here, but there have been aircraft recons in the Atlantic that couldn't close a circulation, but the storm was still a Tropical Storm.



Anyone hazard a guess of the Atlantic storm that didn't have a West wind and stayed a tropical storm per NHC? Clue is in the question.


pro-Mets, you should know this, so amateurs only. No prize, but smug satisfaction.

I honestly do not know the answer to the question, but I'll guess anyways!

Kyle 2002?

A far more famous storm than Kyle...

[stormchazer]

Hazel? Since there was a clue in the question. Hazard= Hazel. I really do not have a clue.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks much worse than yesterday. All I expect from this is a nice surge of needed tropical moisture for the western gulf states next week.

[RattleMan]

This doesn't apply here, but there have been aircraft recons in the Atlantic that couldn't close a circulation, but the storm was still a Tropical Storm.



Anyone hazard a guess of the Atlantic storm that didn't have a West wind and stayed a tropical storm per NHC? Clue is in the question.


pro-Mets, you should know this, so amateurs only. No prize, but smug satisfaction.

Earl 2004?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hazel? Since there was a clue in the question. Hazard= Hazel. I really do not have a clue.

Clue 3: Bob Sheets discussed it in his book, and why NHC didn't downgrade a tropical cyclone that didn't have a closed circulation.

[TexWx]

Is it an Elvis Costello song?

[wxman57]

Maybe some of the old timers can tell us, has there ever been a system in the modern age of radar gone from invest straight to TS without going through TD for at least an hour?

As Derek said, many times. In most cases, the NHC was just slow to classify the invest as a TD, waiting for recon to confirm a circulation. By the time the plane gets there the winds are already up to TS strength. But I guess the real question is could a wave that has 35 kt winds in the northern quadrant (tight gradient with high pressure to the north) close off into a TS without the winds dropping below TS strength first? I suppose it would be possible. Usually, though, a system embedded in such strong easterly flow has a hard time developing that circulation center.

[Ed Mahmoud]

171500 1433N 07856W 9928 00135 0083 +246 +200 193010 011 999 999 03

A thin hair West of due South. Close, but no cigar.

[RattleMan]

Hazel? Since there was a clue in the question. Hazard= Hazel. I really do not have a clue.

Clue 3: Bob Sheets discussed it in his book, and why NHC didn't downgrade a tropical cyclone that didn't have a closed circulation.

A far more famous storm than Kyle...

I knew Andrew degenerated so severely on August 19, 1992 that they couldn't find a well-defined circulation...is that it?

[Ed Mahmoud]

WxMan57, without giving his name, you can confirm my tale of a tropical storm that NHC kept as a TS despite recon not being able to close a circulation?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hazel? Since there was a clue in the question. Hazard= Hazel. I really do not have a clue.

Clue 3: Bob Sheets discussed it in his book, and why NHC didn't downgrade a tropical cyclone that didn't have a closed circulation.

I knew Andrew degenerated so severely on August 19, 1992 that they couldn't find a well-defined circulation...is that it?

Indeed, per Sheets, aircraft found (can't remember exact number) about 60 knot low flight level winds, but calm winds South of the center, but knowing shear was already decreasing and conditions were becoming more favorable, and the next recon would almost certainly find a closed circulation, Sheets decided it would confuse the public to stop advisories on Andrew just to restart them 12 or 18 hours later.

[wxman57]

WxMan57, without giving his name, you can confirm my tale of a tropical storm that NHC kept as a TS despite recon not being able to close a circulation?

I can recall several off the top of my head. One was a male name, one a female. Both within the last 8 years.

[Ed Mahmoud]

WxMan57, without giving his name, you can confirm my tale of a tropical storm that NHC kept as a TS despite recon not being able to close a circulation?

I can recall several off the top of my head. One was a male name, one a female. Both within the last 8 years.

Those I don't know about!

[Derek Ortt]

I know of one... Irene 2005

[wxman57]

WxMan57, without giving his name, you can confirm my tale of a tropical storm that NHC kept as a TS despite recon not being able to close a circulation?

I can recall several off the top of my head. One was a male name, one a female. Both within the last 8 years.

Those I don't know about!

That would be Grace in 2003 and Bret in 2005. Recon could not close off a center on either system but measured TS force winds so they were classified as tropical storms. They just assumed there must be a center somewhere, I guess. Grace was clearly a wave axis, but a strong high to the northeast was resulting in TS force winds across the oil patch in the NW Gulf.

[HURAKAN]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

CARIBBEAN...
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W WITH ASSOCIATED 1009 MB LOW
PRES ALONG THE AXIS IS NEAR 14N. THE WAVE AND LOW CONTINUES
ON A GENERAL WNW TRACK. BOTH QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING
AND OBSERVATIONAL REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42058 NEAR 15N75W EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE E-SE WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AND N
OF 13N PRIMARILY DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS TSTMS WITHIN
THIS AREA. THIS BUOY ALSO SHOWS SEAS NOW MAXING OUT UP TO 12 FT.
THE QUIKSCAT DATA ALSO REVEALED NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN ABOUT
180-240 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 17N. NOAA BUOY 42057 NEAR 17N81.5W
IS REPORTING NE WINDS CLOSE TO 20 KT. THESE SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IN PRETTY CLOSE WITH BOTH THE CONVENTIONAL AND UKMET WAVE
GUIDANCE. FNMOC WAVE GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 2 FT UNDONE TO THE E OF
THE WAVE...BUT LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD TO THE W. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
8-12 FT SEAS FOR E OF THE WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND BUILD THEM
SLIGHTLY TO 13 FT TONIGHT WITH WITH WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SEAS ARE ABOUT 3-5 FT W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD TO 8 FT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
SW PORTION OF THE SEA WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE THE WEAKEST
SUPPORTING LIGHT WINDS OF NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT THROUGH WED.
WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAVE INCREASED TO E 15-20 KT WITH
SEAS MAXING OUT TO 10 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SOME ONCE THE WAVE EXITS THE CARIBBEAN LATE SUN NIGHT
OR EARLY MON MORNING. WILL KEEP WORDING OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG AND E OF THE WAVE THROUGH SUN...AND STATE BECOMING
SCATTERED FAR NW PART SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON. FOR REMAINDER OF
CARIBBEAN E-SE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL BE EVIDENT ELSEWHERE TO THE E
OF THE WAVE THROUGH TUE THEN BE CONFINED TO S 18N W OF 65W WED
AND THU...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS WILL RANGE 8-10 FT AND POSSIBLY UP TO 12
FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

[Derek Ortt]

recon did close off a center with Bret in 2005. Even found a closed eye for a brief period of time

[Brent]

2pm TWO:

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF IT HAS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT JAMAICA...PORTIONS OF
CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW. INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[wxmann_91]

This doesn't apply here, but there have been aircraft recons in the Atlantic that couldn't close a circulation, but the storm was still a Tropical Storm.



Anyone hazard a guess of the Atlantic storm that didn't have a West wind and stayed a tropical storm per NHC? Clue is in the question.


pro-Mets, you should know this, so amateurs only. No prize, but smug satisfaction.

I recall that Chantal and Iris in 2001 also lost their LLC for brief moments. The Caribbean LLJ was strong that year.

[SkyDragon]

Ernest of 00 was anaylized to be a pen wave by quiksat , but was kept as a TS due to a lack of data.