ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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SkyDragon

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3081 Postby SkyDragon » Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:40 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
SkyDragon wrote:I hope TD 4 forms soon!


94L already has winds of TS intensity.

I hope Dolly forms TODAY!!!! (I mean it)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3082 Postby Cryomaniac » Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:41 pm

SkyDragon wrote:I hope Dolly forms TODAY!!!! (I mean it)


I'd prepare for a barrage of flaming if I were you.
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SkyDragon

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3083 Postby SkyDragon » Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:43 pm

Even if I get attacked, so what. After all I am just saying that I want it to be named Dolly. Not that I want it to hit land (which I'm not).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3084 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:47 pm

If you are annoyed at 94L,you better go to TT and see what will come off the pipe shortly and you will be more happy..
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3085 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:49 pm

I'm so sick of people attacking other people over wishing a tropical distrabance or depression getting a name. I mean come on it is not like he/she/it wents it to hit land, people need to calm down. I mean we need to be smart about it.

Also it is not like we have a chance in hell of this beating 2005. That is never going to happen in our life times.

As for this it appears to have close to a closed LLC. But we will see what is found.
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SkyDragon

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3086 Postby SkyDragon » Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:50 pm

cycloneye wrote:If you are annoyed at 94L,you better go to TT and see what will come off the pipe shortly and you will be more happy..

What's TT?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3087 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:52 pm

SkyDragon wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
SkyDragon wrote:I hope TD 4 forms soon!


94L already has winds of TS intensity.

I hope Dolly forms TODAY!!!! (I mean it)


If for no otherreason than to shut down the Invest94L thread so we can start off fresh :roll:
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#3088 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:52 pm

TT=talkin tropics.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3089 Postby zaqxsw75050 » Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:53 pm

SkyDragon wrote:Even if I get attacked, so what. After all I am just saying that I want it to be named Dolly. Not that I want it to hit land (which I'm not).


i kind of get what you are feeling. majority part of me told myself TC tracking rule #1 - be patience. but the other part said either form into something or just die....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3090 Postby Portastorm » Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:53 pm

SkyDragon wrote:
cycloneye wrote:If you are annoyed at 94L,you better go to TT and see what will come off the pipe shortly and you will be more happy..

What's TT?


SkyDragon, go to Talkin' Tropics and look under the thread of "Strong wave inside Africa."

Models are predicting another "player" soon to come.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3091 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:54 pm

canegrl04 wrote:
SkyDragon wrote:I hope Dolly forms TODAY!!!! (I mean it)


If for no otherreason than to shut down the Invest94L thread so we can start off fresh :roll:


We don't create new threads when a storm is upgraded. This thread isn't going away until Invest 94L or whatever happens with it goes away.
Last edited by Brent on Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3092 Postby Cryomaniac » Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:54 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:That is never going to happen in our life times.


I wouldn't say that. It's not likely, but it's by no means impossible

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:As for this it appears to have close to a closed LLC. But we will see what is found.


If it has a closed LLC, it's a TS, yes?
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3093 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Jul 19, 2008 2:03 pm

If the center is indeed still South of 15ºN, unofficially I'd say it is very unlikely this landfalls North of the Rio Grande. SPI might still get some seas and squalls, but, in my amateur opinion, this is a two landfall Mexico threat. And the second landfall might even leave Deep South Texas high and dry under subsidence.


My sprinkler stays busy...
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Derek Ortt

#3094 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Jul 19, 2008 2:22 pm

I'd like to know how one could go from a Dvorak of 1.5/1.5 to too weak in the last 6 hours
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Re:

#3095 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jul 19, 2008 2:25 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I'd like to know how one could go from a Dvorak of 1.5/1.5 to too weak in the last 6 hours


Derek, note the location of that 12Z dvorak - it was nearly 200 miles east of the wave axis in an area of squalls. Which reminds me, we need to work on our "good meteorologist, bad meteorologist" routine a bit. You're supposed to be anti development, I'm supposed to be pro development.
Last edited by wxman57 on Sat Jul 19, 2008 2:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L in Western Caribbean

#3096 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jul 19, 2008 2:30 pm

Ok, those of you wondering when this darn thing will develop, I've made a few charts from the 12Z GFS that may help to determine that. I plotted 200mb wind barbs in pink and surface pressure in 0.5mb increments in yellow. The first chart is for 18Z tomorrow. Note the 40-70 kt easterly winds from near the Yucatan Channel to the northern Yucatan. Not an ideal environment to say the least.

Image

Now let's look at the same chart for 15Z Monday. Much better, but still not great. Easterly winds 20-30 kts with the ridge over the northern Gulf weakening fast:

Image

Now let's look at Monday night (06Z Tuesday). Upper-level high right over 94L. Perfect conditions for development, according to the GFS, at least. So it may take a while to get its act together. May not get that LLC until sometime on Monday. Definitely doesn't have one now.

Image
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Re:

#3097 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Jul 19, 2008 2:30 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I'd like to know how one could go from a Dvorak of 1.5/1.5 to too weak in the last 6 hours


Derek, note the location of that 12Z dvorak - it was nearly 200 miles east of the wave axis in an area of squalls.



A wave axis well ahead of the convection would rate any better?
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Re: Re:

#3098 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jul 19, 2008 2:33 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I'd like to know how one could go from a Dvorak of 1.5/1.5 to too weak in the last 6 hours


Derek, note the location of that 12Z dvorak - it was nearly 200 miles east of the wave axis in an area of squalls.



A wave axis well ahead of the convection would rate any better?


No, my point is it was "too weak" at 12Z, too. The 12Z Dvorak position used a squall with a little mid-level turning to estimate a number, but that wasn't the wave axis/lower pressure area.
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#3099 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jul 19, 2008 2:35 pm

AL, 94, 2008071918, , BEST, 0, 157N, 797W, 35, 1008, DB,

35 knots.
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Re: Re:

#3100 Postby funster » Sat Jul 19, 2008 2:36 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I'd like to know how one could go from a Dvorak of 1.5/1.5 to too weak in the last 6 hours


Derek, note the location of that 12Z dvorak - it was nearly 200 miles east of the wave axis in an area of squalls. Which reminds me, we need to work on our "good meteorologist, bad meteorologist" routine a bit. You're supposed to be anti development, I'm supposed to be pro development.


You two are confusing me :lol: but I like the interesting updates.
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